South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 5th Sep)

Forecast Summary (tl:dr)

• Large S-SSE swell extends into Mon, easing through Tues with winds easing
• Long period S groundswell in the mix Mon, easing into Tues/Wed 
• Nice pulse of SE swell Wed with light winds
• Last pulse of SSE groundswell Thurs, favouring NENSW, with light/mod N’lies developing
• N’lies by the end of next week with a troughy pattern ahead
• Small surf this weekend
• Possible low in Tasman or Coral Sea next week, low confidence in specifics, stay tuned for updates!

Recap

It was a game of two halves this weekend. Saturday was rainy but subdued with E swell supplying some inconsistent 2-3ft surf. A late kick in new SE swell was evident in NENSW as a low wound up east of Byron Bay. A wild and wooly Sunday ensued with fresh SW-SSW winds  and raggedy surf in the 4-6ft range, smaller in more protected locations and generally 3-4ft at Gold Coast Points, smaller on the Sunshine Coast. Still plenty of size this morning with 6-8ft surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW, grading smaller into sheltered Points and about half the size in SEQLD. Mod/fresh S’lies are now abating. 

Swell building Sun morning as low deepened

This week (Sep5-9)

Conditions should settle down quite quickly through the first half of the week as the rambunctious low which passed over Lord Howe Island on the weekend quickly scoots across to the North Island and beyond, generating some nice pulses of swell from fetches near the South Island and Cook Strait.

A large high (1031hPa) is approaching Tasmania and will drift into the Tasman Sea this week, with the S’ly ridge slowly weakening and then tending N’ly for the latter part of the week. A passing polar low is now tracking under the South Island having sent some pulses of long period Sly groundswell our way.

In the short run and S’ly winds will be with us again tomorrow, although easing off and tending light SE during the a’noon. A window of morning SW breeze is likely to relatively brief, although lasting longer between Byron and the Southern Gold Coast. A mix of long period S’ly groundswell and easing SSE-E/SE swell will still provide plenty of energy with sets to 3-5ft in NENSW, grading smaller into more sheltered spots and in the 3-4ft range at exposed SEQLD breaks. 

By Wednesday that ridge will have slackened right off and winds will tend to morning land breezes before clocking around E/SE during the late morning. This will probably offer the best combination of wind and swell for the week with a nice kick in energy from the S to SE in the 3-5ft range, slowly easing a notch during the a’noon. 

N’ly winds start to build in through Thursday as the high moves far enough out in the Tasman to develop the western flank.  They’ll start off at a light/mod speed, likely W to W/NW early before ramping right up during the a’noon on the Mid North Coast. Winds should stay lighter in SEQLD, where pressure gradients will be lighter. We’ll see another nice pulse of long period S’ly energy in the 3-4ft range in the water in NENSW, with smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD at S facing beaches. 

This NE windswell looks to be a handy size through Fri with plenty of 2-3ft surf, bigger on the South Coast. Early fresh N’ly winds will tend NW then W as a front pushes through. If you can nail the timing there should be plenty of fun sidewinders on Friday.

Thursdays pulse eases through Fri, and with N’ly winds predicted to freshen, you’ll need to head to a backbeach to make the most of it. Leftover 3ft sets in NENSW, will grade smaller during the day, and SEQLD will be lucky to see much over 2ft, easing during the day.

This weekend (Sep10-11)

Not much to look forwards to this weekend, surf-wise. A weak front associated with a trough pushes through overnight Fri, leaving Sat with a light offshore wind, tending to weak breezes as a broad troughy area of weak pressure gradients lingers about the NSW North Coast, extending up into SEQLD Southern Waters. 

Not much swell to go with those light winds though. Small leftovers in the 1-2ft range at exposed breaks. We’ll keep tabs on whether the front passing through Bass Strait Fri may have some more oomph to it, but at this stage it looks weak, zonal and transitory. 

Sunday repeats the dose, with no major swell sources and just small 1-2ft leftovers in the water. At least there will be light winds with only weak breezes expected in the troughy pattern expected. Good Weekend to get things done or go inland.

Next week (Sep 12 onwards)

We mentioned in Fridays notes a pattern of enhanced troughiness in the Tasman and Coral Seas next week, and thats certainly looking probable now.

Models are suggesting a surface low form either off the MNC or further north. There is solid surf potential from this outlook but we’ll need a few more days as models start to solidify on the details before we rush into any calls.

More certain is some small S swell coming from a series of fronts passing below Tasmania which is likely to see S swell later Mon into Tues.

Of course, quality will depend on any surface low forming in the Tasman, so we’ll need to hold our fire before we make any definite calls.

With major models struggling to resolve the troughiness (typical for La Niña spring/summers) we’ll pencil in a swell event for next week- likely from Tues, and come back Wed and fill in some of the details.

Seeya then.