South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 24th Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Winds tending SW'ly Wed as the E'ly swell slowly eases
•  Spike in S swell later Wed, holding Thurs morning before easing with easing winds Thurs
• Small mix of swells Fri with light winds
• Small surf over the weekend with light S to SE winds
• Small, weak surf carries through early next week
• Tracking potential E swell late next week so stay tuned for updates, still a long way out!

Recap

Inconsistent E swell in the 3-4ft range yesterday was marred by fresh N'lies, with a wind change arriving too late to clean anything up apart from back beaches. E swell is slowly ebbing away today with long waits for the remaining 2-3ft sets. Fresh W to SW winds are moderating through the day as the low which formed overnight moves away during the day and pressure gradients slacken. A late kick in new S swell has been recorded across NENSW.

Some sets from the E but long waits for them

This week (Aug 24-26)

The current robust but compact low is driving near gales in a thin fetch adjacent to the Central/Mid North Coast, with a tail of weaker winds extending out into the Central Tasman, with the whole show moving eastwards quickly today. Another, much weaker front, pushes up the coast tomorrow before a large high pressure system sets up a ridge along the temperate to sub-tropical coast of NSW. That ridge weakens rapidly with conditions settling quickly as we round off the working week and head into the weekend. 

Short term and surf heights ease through tomorrow after an overnight peak. Expect 3-5ft of S swell at S exposed breaks in NENSW, grading smaller 2-3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD, easing off during the day.  You’ll need to get in early for best conditions with W to SW winds, before they tend light S to SE in the a’noon.  A weaker cold front may just get to the Mid North Coast before dark, bringing fresh SW-S winds.

A new S swell will be in the water Fri, with no great quality, but pushing surf back up into the 3ft range at S facing beaches, 1-2ft in SEQLD. Winds look OK early, as a high pressure ridge quickly builds in, with a period of morning SW breezes before directing mod/fresh S’lies up the coast. 

This weekend (Aug 27-28)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. With no major swell sources on the radar we’ll be relying on leftover S’ly energy through Sat with some weak 2-3ft sets at exposed magnets easing through the day. Winds don’t look too bad- with a weak ridge we should see a window of morning SW breezes, tending to weak/mod S to SE winds. There are some traces of tiny, long period refracted S swell trains heading up the Tasman Sea, but they look super flukey and unlikely to show anything more than the odd 2ft set at the most reliable S swell magnets in NENSW.

Sunday looks even smaller, with just traces of swell from the SSE-SE, generated by the dregs of the current low as it briefly meanders near New Zealand. Head to your nearest swell magnet for a few 1-2ft sets, with an early SW flow tending to light SE-E/SE breezes in the a’noon. There should be just enough surf for a grovel at the magnets or some babyfood peelers for a log at the Points.

Next week (Aug 29 onwards)

Still looking like a very quiet ending to Winter 2022 as we move into next week and the last 3 days of winter. With high pressure moving out into the Tasman Monday delivers a freshening N’ly flow with enough windspeed and breadth in the local fetch to possibly push up NE windswell into the 2ft range on the Mid North Coast, negligible elsewhere. 

An approaching front and low shifts winds to the NW overnight, with NE windswell rapidly dropping back to tiny levels. Expect tiny surf Tuesday. A marginal signal of weak tradewind surf should supply a few 1-2ft waves on the Sunshine Coast, grading smaller the further south you go. 

Tuesdays front and low is expected to generate a small S swell signal for late Wed/early Thurs, likely in the 2-3ft range but we’ll finesse that call as we get closer.

Longer term and there are a few things to monitor. 

The trough line in the Coral Sea/South Pacific is still there, so all hope is not lost, but models show no great activation of that into the endow next week. We’ll keep watching.

The strong high high passing into the Tasman this weekend, reforms on the other side of New Zealand, pushing a tradewind fetch  up and over the edge of the North Island (see below). This is well aimed at sub-tropical targets and should  provide some fun E’ly energy into the first week of Spring.

We’re also tracking some strong southern Ocean low pressure systems from the middle of next week. Most of the wind vectors are quite zonal (W-E) and the storms get shunted southwards as they approach the Tasman Sea. Nonetheless we’re still likely to see some refracted long period energy through the end of next week.

The next high towards the end of next week also looks to set up a SE fetch through the Northern Tasman delivering some small SE-ESE surf into the first weekend of Spring. 

Check back Fri and we’ll have updates on these possibilities as well as a final look at the weekend.

Seeya then.