South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Light winds and easing swells Mon
• New E'ly groundswell Tues but winds look tricky from the N/NW, late NW-W/NW wind shift may open up a few options part from backbenches
• Winds tending S'ly Wed as the E'ly swell slowly eases
• Strong spike in S swell later Wed, holding Thurs morning before easing with easing winds Thurs
• Small mix of swells Fri with light winds
• Small surf over the weekend with light S to SE winds
• Small, weak surf carries through early next week
• Tracking potential E swell late next week so stay tuned for updates, still a long way out!

Recap

Lovely weekend of E’ly dominated swells and mostly offshore conditions, although E’ly swells did favour NENSW as the fetch drifted south last week. Saturday saw mostly 3-4ft E swell (with the odd bigger one) and a W through NW flow before a light seabreeze. Sunday saw a stiff S’ly change and with slightly smaller E swell in the 3-4ft range and a smidgen of S swell in the mix surf was better at protected locations. Today is still seeing plenty of fun waves to start the week with leftover E swell still supplying some inconsistent 3ft sets and a touch of S swell in the mix which is adding an extra foot of size south of the border. Clean conditions early under W to NW winds, shifting NE’ly through the day. 

Nice E'ly swell over the weekend

This week (Aug 22-26)

Synoptic charts this week look typical of a seasonal transition with mobile high pressure up at sub-tropical latitudes and a strong front poised to sweep into the Tasman with a robust low forming on the front line before rapidly shifting eastwards. Behind that typical seasonal pattern lurks signs of La Niña with a persistent trough line in the Coral Sea and a very strong high expected to track through the Southern Bight later this week. We’ll monitor those precursor building blocks for another round of E swell in the medium/long term but for now, it’s the Tasman Sea that has most of the action. 

Expect freshening pre-frontal N to NW winds through tomorrow, at least up to mid/late a’noon, where we should start to see  more NW-W/NW tilt as the front approaches.Expect  a slight kick in E swell up into the 3-4ft range, then another around lunch-time as longer period E swell with sets to 4ft+ will join the mix, generated by a retrograding low in the South Pacific last week. Should be a good day for certain backbeaches if you can find a bank handling the swell.

A spike in S swell moves up the coast Wed, generated by the front and an intense but compact low forming off the Central Coast later Tues (see below). That will see S swell filling in across the Mid North Coast through the morning, with sets to 4-6ft at S exposed breaks, arriving midday on the  North Coast and early a’noon north of the border. Prior to that long range E swell will maintain inconsistent 4ft sets, easing a notch through the a’noon. Fresh W to W/SW winds will clock around SW to S in the a’noon. It’s a complex day with a lot of wind changes but there should be good waves to be had if you can tick the right boxes.

The end of the week looks to settle down quite quickly. Thursday sees winds shift back offshore at first, with a mix of stills strong S swells in the water and some very inconsistent 3ft leftover E swell energy with size topping out around 3-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW.  Light offshore winds will tend to E/NE then NE sea breezes, light enough to surf through if you can’t get to a backbeach.

A weaker front pushes through overnight Thurs, leaving a light offshore flow for Fri morning before winds tend light SE and a small amount of new S’ly energy.

That S swell pulse ends off the working week with size in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, as well as a few dregs from the E’ly long range swell, amounting to some slow 2ft sets with long waits. There’ll be some surfable options if you set expectations low. 

This weekend (Aug 27-28)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend. A high just east of Tasmania sets up a weak S to SE flow adjacent to the Central NSW coast, that extends up into the sub-tropics and that will see a light S to SE flow through Sat, with a small mix of S to SE swells providing some ordinary surf in the 2-3ft range, easing during the day. Best early before the wind kicks up, although winds should stay light enough to surf all day if you need a grovel in the a’noon and aren’t too fussy. Babyfood peelers on the Points are also a possibility.

Those weak swells ease back even further Sun with size in the sub 2ft range expected. Winds look light though as a troughy region over the coast generates a flukey offshore flow that tends to more light S to SE breezes. There’s likely just enough energy on tap for a few peaks on the beachies.

Next week (Aug 29 onwards)

Looks like we will have a very subdued ending to what has been a pretty active winter. Absent any major swell sources and with high pressure moving NE into the Tasman and weakening we’re expecting a tiny start to the week, with no major swell sources and size in the 1-2ft range.

S’ly quadrant winds are expected Mon and into Tues as a weak trade flow establishes in the Coral Sea.

That should see a slight building trend in peaky SE-ESE trade-wind swell through Wed, more noticeable on the Sunshine Coast, but unlikely to be much more than 2ft or so.

Into the medium term and as we mentioned at the start of the notes there is some potential for another round of E swell into the first week of Spring. At least one major weather model (EC) is suggesting the long trough line gets activated by a strong high moving south of the bight later next week. That does offer up hopes for another “trough block” scenario, although it’s way too early to begin frothing about it. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up through this week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.