Days of small, clean surf ahead before chunkier E swell late next week as "trough-block" forms in South Pacific

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 12th August)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr) 

  • Small, fun leftovers Sat with N’lies before a W’ly change
  • Slight kick in E swell Sun with offshore winds
  • Small, long range E swell (very inconsistent!) Mon PM, holding Tues, easing Wed 
  • Small E swell holding Mon-Wed at fun levels before building Thurs into the weekend as “trough-block” forms in Coral Sea/South Pacific
  • Small, flukey S swell pulses likely Tues-Thurs favouring S facing beaches
  • More action ahead medium term from a variety of sources, stay tuned for updates.

Recap

There were still some solid sets on offer yesterday across the region with NENSW seeing 4ft+ sets, smaller 3ft in SEQLD under a light wind regime. Today has eased back further with inconsistent 3ft waves in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Winds were light and variable early but a N’ly flow is now established across the region. 

SE swell easing but still a few sets before the N'ly kicked in

This weekend (Aug 13-14)

No great change expected for the weekend f/cast.  Winds will be dominated by an approaching interior low and trough linked to a NW cloud band (the second since the Indian Ocean Dipole went negative). That will see a N’ly flow tend NW to W on Sat and a similar wind pattern on Sun.

Saturday won’t see much size, but there should be some fun leftovers from the SE-ESE in the 2-3ft range early at NENSW swell magnets, smaller in SEQLD before an easing trend kicks in. Early N’ly winds will tend NW before a more true W’ly kicks in through midday.  

The infeed into the low stretches out to become contiguous with a tradewind style fetch in the Southern Coral Sea and this will see a slight uptick in E/NE swell into Sunday. Nothing amazing but a few 2ft+ sets will be on offer, under offshore winds. 

Next week (Aug 15 onwards)

We still have the same building blocks in place for next week but the timing has been pushed back and the mix has been altered as E swell dominates from the “trough block” and S swell fades in importance.

By Mon the low will be located just East of Tasmania with continuing W’lies across NSW and extending into the sub-tropics. 

We’re looking at a few days of small E swell as the trade-wind/infeed fetch slowly migrates Eastwards into the South Pacific. 

As well as a very inconsistent, long range signal of E swell from the fetch near Tahiti early this week. 

Expect surf in the 2ft range Mon with W’ly winds, continuing into Tues, with winds tending W/SW as a front associated with the low sweeps across the state.

No significant S swell is now expected from the low as it weakens quickly through Tuesday, although we’ll keep monitoring over the weekend to see if any eventuates. We’re looking at some traces of long period S swell from a fetch well to the south of Australia through Mon and Tues with just a few inconsistent 1-2ft sets at S swell magnets in NENSW.

A weak fetch off Gippsland Tues is likely to see some similar size short period S swell Wed and see winds shift to the WSW-SW.

More mid period small E swell pads out Wed. 

That’s three days of small, clean waves with size around 2ft, possibly a few stray bigger sets. Nothing amazing but fun on the beachies if you’ve got a good bank.

While this is happening a long trough line in the near South Pacific forms and deepens with a wind speeds increasing along a broad front due south of New Caledonia as they feed into the trough (see below). Strong winds to gales feeding into the fetch through Tues-Thurs are expected to generate quality E/NE swell trains for the region.

We’re expecting a building trend Thurs with surf building from 2-3ft into the 3ft+ range.

Fri and into the weekend look much more solid with size in the 4-5ft range and a few bigger sets expected. We’re still a few days away from seeing how it shapes up but confidence is high in quality E quadrant swell for this period. Winds look good as a cold front sweeps across the state. W tending SW before a weak troughy pattern unfolds close to the NSW North Coast. We’ll finesse the details on Mon, but for now it’s looking good.

Longer term and a chunky winter-calibre low in the Tasman is on the cards for next weekend, although it’s too far out to have any confidence in specifics.

Check back Mon and have a great weekend!

Comments

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Friday, 12 Aug 2022 at 2:42pm

Ooooof imagine we get similarly sized east and south swells together!
Gonna be tent city on the beachies that have good sand....
A few in particular love this set up.
At the very least should mean more beachy options

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 12 Aug 2022 at 3:20pm

Lol good sand, haven't seen such a thing in 2 years.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Friday, 12 Aug 2022 at 9:03pm

Ditto

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Saturday, 13 Aug 2022 at 4:42pm

Which approximate area are you Sprout?

Seeds?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 8:43am

North SC

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 9:36am

Same

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 11:36am

Mates down the other end say it's just as bad.

dilmah's picture
dilmah's picture
dilmah Friday, 12 Aug 2022 at 3:11pm

This adsi bloke does me in

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Saturday, 13 Aug 2022 at 10:54am

lol how so ?

Luke02's picture
Luke02's picture
Luke02 Saturday, 13 Aug 2022 at 4:31pm

Just imagine if there was banks on the SC

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 13 Aug 2022 at 4:49pm

Hey Steve - heading home next week after a long gig up north with a mid-week travel through the Capricorn region. Could it possibly? Twice in a month mid-winter seems long odds.

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 11:43am

hey FR, are we still on track for a slight increase in swell today on the GC?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 4:06pm

Jeez old Coolum matey's an excitable fellow isn't he? A bit of sunshine and BAM 5/10 lol.
The dawn guess was more accurate.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 5:59pm

I thought the same, but there did look like there were one or two alright waves coming in up at Sunshine.. by SC standards.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 14 Aug 2022 at 6:37pm

Hey Scrotina, I was on Goldy today, pretty small, but I did find some unattended beachie with the odd 2ft set.

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 11:49am

Was hoping for an afternoon surf with west winds all day. Now it's gone nne

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 11:57am

yeah i waited for the hightide. I was a little shocked at the NE wind and how strong it was.

Oh well, looks like plenty of time this week.

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 12:27pm

why high tide? do you know something i dont lol. i'm waiting for low tide, and was planning on all day offshores

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 12:28pm

possibly............

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 12:14pm

Same here