South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 5th August)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr) 

• Tiny surf likely this weekend with a slight background E swell for the Sunshine Coast and mostly offshore winds
• Directional S swell favouring NENSW Mon
• More solid S swell Tues/Wed with SW-S winds
• Better angled SSE swell Thurs, easing Fri with light winds
• Tracking long range for potential low pressure development in Coral Sea, check back Mon

Recap

Not much on offer yesterday with only weak surf in the 1-1.5ft range and freshening N’lies. Today has continued that theme with only minor wind swells in the water and a N’ly flow, although lighter as a trough approaches the sub-tropics. The Sunshine Coast has marginally more weak E swell in the water. Weekend still looks lame but next week is looking a little bit livelier. Read on for details. 

Small, glassy beachies on the Sunshine Coast has been the best of it

This weekend (Aug 6-7)

 Not much change to the weekend f/cast. We still have the complex low just about to enter the Tasman, weakening as it does so, with a trough and NW cloud band drifting across NSW. The N’ly flow is now tending more NW, with that trend continuing into a more direct offshore flow through the weekend, driven by the decaying low.

Surf-wise, nothing much to expect Sat with tiny leftovers in the 1-1.5ft range or less slightly bigger on the Sunny Coast. Clean under offshore winds so if you can find a babyfood bank it may be suitable for learners and big boards.

Sunday should more of the same weak E’ly quadrant swells in the 1ft range with W’ly winds swinging more SW later Sunday and freshening as a front associated with the low sweeps across the state. Keep expectations very low Sunday but there may be a little wave on offer Sunday if you look around, more likely on the Sunshine Coast.

Next week (Aug 8 onwards)

Surf prospects are definitely looking juicier for the first half of next week with a much more substantial fetch of S-SSE winds set up on the Eastern side of the Tasman Sea as the decaying low reforms near New Zealand, aiming up some useful fetches towards the Eastern Seaboard (see below).

The initial increase of swell on Mon will be very directionally S, so expect the usual spread in size between S swell magnets and elsewhere. A building trend should be in place mid-morning across NENSW, with size building into the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks. Expect much smaller 1-2ft surf in SEQLD with the modest swell periods and steep swell direction. Winds should be OK with light/mod SW breezes tending to SE winds in SEQLD. Expect a stiffer SW/SSW flow from south of Yamba to the Mid North Coast.

S’ly quarter winds are still on the menu for Tuesday but by degrees swell direction will tend more SSE, which should aid refraction into more sheltered spots. Exposed S facing breaks in NENSW will  be in the 3-4ft range, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD,expected to bump up during the day into the 3-5ft range, 3ft in SEQLD, as SSE swell continues to fill in from gales near the South Island, anchoring a long fetch through the Tasman. 

By Wednesday we should start to see a gradual but consistent easing of the pressure gradient maintaining the S’ly flow along the sub-tropical NSW and QLD Coasts. Lingering SW-S winds should lay down through the day, tending to light S to SE’ly breezes as high pressure encroaches.

Plenty of size is expected from the S to SSE with sets to 6ft at exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft at SEQLD swell magnets. Wednesday looks good for large chunks of the region, especially south of the border.

Thursday looks to be the first day where local winds really lay down as weak high pressure moves off the NSW Coast. That should see a morning land breeze and afternoon seabreezes kick in. Better angled mid-period SE swell generated out of Cook Strait will see some lovely 3-5ft surf making Thursday the pick of next week so far.

By the end of next week and into the weekend an easing trend will be in play as a weak blocking pattern kicks in. 

Friday sees easing SE swell in the 3-4ft range with light NE winds kicking in.

Next weekend looks bereft of any major swell sources at this stage, with minor E swell possible as a weak trade flow sets up in the Coral Sea and a NW flow as a low/front approaches from the West.

Some of the longer range models are hinting at renewed action in the Eastern swell window, possibly a low pressure system in the Coral Sea, in response to a massive trade surge through Tahitian longitudes which is likely to produce a small signal of background E swell into the medium term, depending on how active closer swell sources behave.

We’ll keep our eyes on that and report back in on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!