South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 29th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr) 

• Fun sized SE swell Fri, with a late spike in S swell (more likely on the Mid North Coast)
• Fun mix of S and SE swells Sat favouring south of the border
• Surfable leftovers Sun with winds tending onshore
• N’ly pattern sets in next week with some (barely!) rideable tradewind swell from Tues, favouring the Sunshine Coast
• N’lies persist into the end of next week with no significant swells

Recap

Plenty of energy remained from the southern quadrant to round off the week, with size favouring NENSW due to swell direction. Yesterday saw solid sets early south of the border with size in the 4-5ft range, bigger on exposed bars, and grading smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Conditions were clean for most of the day with light offshore winds tending to light SE breezes. Today has seen leftover 3ft energy in NENSW, grading smaller 2ft in SEQLD with light offshore winds tending S’ly through the a’noon. 

Tasty peaks at the swell magnets yesterday

This weekend (July 30-31)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Todays front moves away quickly, with high pressure moving over Central NSW setting up a weak ridge along the sub-tropical coast of NSW and SEQLD. That will see a morning SW breezes, tending mod/fresh S’ly before clocking around to a mod SE breeze in the a’noon. Mid period S swell of no great distinction will see some sets to 3-4ft across S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft+ at SEQLD S swell magnets. Get in early before S’lies rip it up as there is unlikely to be enough energy to refract into more sheltered Points once the sou-easter kicks in.

Size is expected to roll away steadily on Sun as S swell dries up. Expect a few 3 ft+ sets early at reliable S swell magnets in NENSW, dropping right back in the a’noon to 2-3ft with smaller 2ft surf in SEQLD becoming tiny in the a’noon. Winds don’t look great, a brief morning offshore before onshore winds set in as the ridge maintains a broad E’ly flow across the region, tending more E/SE in SEQLD and E/NE on the Mid North Coast. 

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

Looking like a very quiet week to kick off the last month of winter. An approaching cold front Mon, with a very zonal (W-E) wind field will see winds veer N through NW, then W/NW with only small  surf on offer. 1-2ft at S magnets in NENSW and tiny in SEQLD with just a dribble of small E’ly windswell on offer.

The tradewind flow we mentioned in Wednesday’s notes now looks weaker and located further away, so we’ll dial it down from small to marginal. A few 1-2ft waves at Sunshine Coast swell magnets will be about the best of it for Tues/Wed.

That front quickly clears the Tasman Tues with continuing tiny surf for the rest of the region and a brief, weak ridge setting up a light SE/SSE flow Tues a’noon. 

That weak pattern continues into Wed with light winds tending NE in the a’noon and no surf to speak of save the marginal tradewind swell on the Sunshine Coast.

Expect freshening N’lies Thurs, possibly whipping up a minor NE windswell later in the day on the Mid North Coast,  as the N’ly flow freshens in the a’noon. We’re not looking at anything likely to exceed 2ft so keep expectations pegged very low.

The N’ly pattern extends into Fri with no increase in swell.

A decaying low pressure system stalled in the Bight then slowly moves E over the weekend bringing a W’ly flow across the region with no significant increase in swell expected. 

We’ll keep tabs on a couple of very zonal fronts transiting the far southern Tasman Sea later next week for any minor pulses of S swell but at this stage we’re looking at a very tiny week extending into the weekend. Looks like a good time to fix dings and bust out the snorkel gear.

Check back Mon for the latest f/cast update and have a great weekend!