South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan3)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mix of S and E swells in NENSW Tues, more E swell in SEQLD. Strong S'ly winds expected, more SE in NENSW, S/SW in SEQLD
• Rebuilding of punchy E/SE swell Wed, persisting at fun levels Thurs with winds tending SE to E
• Small E/SE groundswell Thurs/easing Fri
• Fun leftovers likely Fri with NE winds
• Small mix of E swells Sat with light winds
• Slight bump in tradewind swell Sun with light winds
• More swell potential next week from tropical low pressure in the South Pacific. Stay tuned for details

Recap

I’ll try and keep the recap from turning into War and Peace, but TC Seth (now ex TC Seth) delivered a truckload of epic surf over the New Years weekend. Sat was primarily a Noosa day as surf rapidly built into the 4-6ft range with lines stacked from Main beach to Hells Gates. Sunday morning was probably the peak of the Noosa swell with solid 6ft sets at Nationals. The Gold Coast Points were also on the pump with surf building into the 6-8ft range through the a’noon and clean as a whistle at Kirra. Size peaked this morning and the low located further north than Fridays notes indicated the locus of biggest surf was found on the Gold and Tweed Coasts where 10-12 ft sets were reported on Outer and Exposed breaks. NENSW saw a smaller but still super solid 6-8 ft (with 10ft sets) surf. By mid/late morning the surf began a slow waning in size with winds from the S increasing as the low moved closer to the coast. This movement back towards the coast and in a NW direction is expected for the next few days until the system slowly dissipates completely.

Stacked and Jacked pt1

Stacked and jacked pt 2

Sunday afternoon cement mixer

This week (Jan 3-7)

Swell from ex TC Seth, which transitioned into a gale force sub-tropical low Sun is the major synoptic feature this week, responsible for both swell production and directing gradient winds as it slowly weakens and meanders close to the NENSW/SEQLD coast for the next few days. It’s not the ideal position or track for local winds in most of NENSW/SEQLD with an onshore flow expected to develop. Compared to if the low had tracked S which would have seen winds swing SW and then “reset" local winds.

With the low expected to be at it’s most S’ly position tomorrow we should see SW through SE winds from the further expanse of winds rotating around the southern quadrants of the low. These winds will be more S/SW in SEQLD and more S to SE in NENSW. 

Size will vary across the f/cast region tomorrow. Largest in the south, where a mix of E’ly swell in the 4-6ft range and S’ly swell in the 3-5ft range will combine, although with strong S to SE winds on offer it’ll be sheltered spots only.
SEQLD will see smaller leftover E swell in the 3-4ft range and more options at semi-protected locations.

Winds will deteriorate Wed in NSW, tending from SE through to dead E’ly during the day. They should stay slightly more favourable S/SE through E/SE north of the border, depending on the movement of the low, which is expected to slowly track NW back towards the Northern Sunshine Coast. That movement will see a rebuild in wave heights during  the day as more modest mid-period E swell rises up into the 3-5ft range, grading smaller into more protected Points. 

The latter part of this week should see some windows of slightly better winds as pressure gradients ease, although the constant onshore flow isn’t expected to disappear completely and the state of local sandbars will largely determine surf quality.

Size is expected to roughly hold in the 3-4ft range through Thurs and Fri. Thursday will see some extra E/SE swell generated by a sub-tropical low which retrograded back towards the North Island today and into tomorrow, right on the edge of the swell window. This will put some extra 2-3ft sets in the mix, although considering the sea state it’s unlikely we’ll get to fully utilise it. 

By Friday winds look a bit uglier, tending E/NE to NE, and confining cleanest conditions to back beaches.  Size and strength will be dropping out as period declines and waves tend more to junky windswell. 

This weekend (Jan 8 - 9)

Pressure gradients should ease through this weekend, leading to light winds and mostly smaller surf. This will be the first chance to do a proper assessment of the sandbanks after a solid week of surf. Residual E to E/SE swell should hold some 2-3ft surf on Sat with light NE winds, possibly NW inshore early and opening up some fun waves on the beachbreaks.

Sun is expected to see a little more size as Tradewinds kick back in later this week (see below). This is likely to be the beginning of another La Nina accentuated swell cycle, with size pushing back up into the 3ft range and light winds which will tend more E/SE as a new high pressure ridge starts to build along the coast. 

Next week (Jan3 onwards)

More action in the tropics next week. Later this week another tropical low is expected to form in the South Pacific- possibly between Fiji and Vanuatu ( see below). That has swell generating potential in and of itself depending on how it moves into the swell window. A long cradling fetch of E/SE Tradewinds forms in that general region, which is likely to be a more reliable swell producer, especially for more northern parts of the State and QLD. 

Another strong, dominant high tracking well south of the Bight is likely to see SE winds become re-established along the sub-tropical coastline early next week suggesting another extended round of conditions favouring the Pointbreaks.

A stronger trough mid next week may see a S’ly fetch develop in the lower Tasman with a small S swell possible by Wed. 

Stronger E/NE groundswell is a good possibility into the end of next week but we’ll need more model guidance with such a long lead time leading to low confidence.

More low pressure development in both the Coral Sea and South Pacific is also being suggested by weather models. 

Check back Wed and we’ll how much of that tropical activity will translate into surf potential.