South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct29)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Initial pulse of small S swell at S facing beaches in SEQLD Sat PM, with S'ly winds
• Directional S swell Sun/Mon favouring S facing beaches with onshore SE/ESE winds
• Short range SE/ESE swell likely from Sun, persisting into Thurs, with an onshore wind flow
• Pulse of longer period SE swell likely next weekend

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Sat with S'ly winds 
• Stronger S swell pulse Sun, holding Mon before easing and SE winds
• Short range SE/ESE swell likely from Sun, persisting into Wed, favouring North of Yamba
• Potential ESE swell into next weekend, revisions likely
• Pulse of longer period SE swell likely next weekend, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Not much on offer the last 48hrs across the region. A few small S swell scraps on offer south of the border yesterday but with freshening NE winds, quality was generally low. Storms last night disrupted the N’ly flow allowing a window of semi clean conditions this morning but there wasn’t much to ride, generally a weak 1-2ft windswell signal from the NE. NE winds have now freshened and are tending to fresh NW winds across NENSW. 

This weekend (Oct 30-31)

No change to the headline feature: another robust low forming in a trough line East of Tasmania. It does seem to be running early, with gales to storm force winds now expected out of Bass Strait through the early afternoon and winds now tending SW through the evening in Southern NSW. 

That brings forwards a first pulse of S’ly swell along the NSW coast, as well as the S’ly wind change associated with it. S’ly winds are now likely to be established by first light on the Mid North Coast, early morning on the North Coast and reach the border by mid-late morning. The swell front associated with the Bass Strait fetch is likely to come in with the wind, or just after, so keep expectations pegged low as far as quality goes. S facing beaches are likely to see surf build into the 3ft range in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD and they will be wind affected. Much smaller surf is expected away from any S’ly exposure, so it’ll be tricky to find a wave.

The first Bass Strait pulse dies back into Sun, before the next pulse generated by SW gales around the western and south-western flank of the low fills in. These swell trains will overlap and it’s likely that the second pulse will fill in early Sun, especially on the Mid North Coast, although again, S’ly winds will need to be worked around.

Sunday will have plenty of S swell on offer, and with severe gales around the low, quite a bit of period to work with. Multiple lows have now formed in this region just E of Tasmania this Spring. We’d expect size on Sun in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD swell magnets. 

In addition to S swell there’s quite a strong high pressure surge of SE winds developing over the weekend. This surge of 20-30knot SE winds is likely to push wave heights up into the 3ft+ range, especially in SEQLD, through Sun. It’s a low period, local swell source so don’t expect too much to wrap into the more sheltered Points, but there should be enough energy to provide some rideable waves at Outer Bays.

 Again, if you can work with some tricky winds, there will be plenty of workable swell on offer through Sunday. 

Next week (Nov1) and beyond

We’ll be on the backside of the weekend’s S swell event on Mon 1/11, with the low having moved away quickly through Sat, leading to a  roll-off in swell energy through Mon. Residual energy in the 3-4ft range Mon morning at NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2ft in SEQLD on the Hunter, will ease back through the day in size and consistency. 

The dominant high will be in a position to maintain the ESE flow through the Southern Coral, with winds tending more E then ENE the further south you are in the f/cast region.

With slow moving high pressure being reinforced by another high slipping into the lower Tasman, we’ve got a pretty effective blocking pattern in place for most of next week.

The SE/ESE fetch through the Southern Coral Sea will supply a steady drumbeat of short period local windswell through most of next week, biggest in SEQLD. Don’t expect too much in the way of size, we’re talking sloppy 2-3ft of surf but it will be surfable. South of Yamba expect a small signal of weak windswell developing Tues-Thurs, once the last leftovers of S swell dry up on Tuesday.

There is a front and parent low whisking through the far Southern Tasman sea Sun/Mon, with a very zonal fetch. Swell models aren’t really interested in it, but period charts show the chance of a glancing blow from some longer period S swell Wed. That has the potential for some 2-3ft sets at the most reliable S magnets late Tues in NENSW, but it’s a flukey source so keep expectations low.

Another trough exiting the coast , possibly off the Tasmanian or Gippsland coast is expected to bring a S’ly change possibly extending to the Mid North Coast Fri. Models seem to think a low forming in the trough will dissipate quickly, without being much of a swell source. North of the trough line winds are likely to stay from the ESE through to the end of next week, although we may need to revisit that on Mon.

Of more interest is a fetch out of Cook Strait expected to develop through Wed and dissipate Thurs, as a low pressure system slips down over the North Island from the sub-tropical South Pacific. We’re still seeing some model divergence over the strength of the fetch but based on current modelling we can expect to see some ESE mid period swell through late Fri, possibly in the 3-4ft range, and holding into Sat. We'll have to see how models shape up over the weekend before we have any confidence in that call.

Additionally there is the potential of some troughiness in the Central Tasman sea leading to increased windspeeds through a broad, weak wind field of SE/ESE winds through the end of next week, potentially adding to the background of ESE swell into next weekend.

With the long lead time and troughy/unstable pattern we’re still experiencing this Spring, we’ll need to flag it now and come back Mon and see how the pattern is shaping up.

For now, we’ve got some swell energy incoming this weekend.

Hope you can get some and have a great weekend.

Check back Mon for a fresh and full update.