South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep3)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Another extended E’ly swell event on the radar, building from Fri, solid on the weekend and holding through mid/late next week, favouring Points although periods of unfavourable winds
• Moderate S swell Tues
• Long period refracted S swell Wed PM/Thurs
• S swell favouring NENSW on the radar for next weekend, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Another extended E’ly swell event on the radar, building from Fri, solid on the weekend into mid/late next week, favouring Points although periods of bad winds
• Solid S swell Mon PM, holding Tuesday, easing Wed with improving winds
• Longer period S swell Wed PM, holding Thursday, easing Fri
• More S swell on the radar for next weekend, stay tuned for details

Recap

Small mixed bag of surf since Wed, with minor ESE swell through Thursday and developing onshore winds confining surf to a grovel at exposed beaches. Today we’ve seen a pattern change with E’ly tradewind swell starting to build through the day, although straight E’ly winds have meant surf is mostly scrappy point surf building into the 3ft range. 

This weekend (Sep 4-5)

Still a very dynamic cocktail of wind and swell events ahead for the weekend with lots of moving parts so lets dive in and try and make some sense of it. 

An incredibly strong high pressure cell (1043 hPa) near New Zealand is driving an impressive tradewind fetch through the North Island/South Pacific corridor , as well as local onshore winds through the Coral and Northern Tasman sea.

Tradewind swells from this source, are on the build now, and with the fetch remaining peristent and only slowly contracting E’wards early next week this swell source will keep a steady drumbeat of fun-sized tradewind swell in the water over the weekend and right through most of next week. 

Based on ASCAT passes and latest modelling I think the top end of wave heights called on Wed deserves a minor hair cut. It’s unlikely we’ll see much more than 3-4ft from this source, apart from exceptional E swell magnets with shallow bathymetry. 

This 3-4ft E’ly tradewind swell is expected to chug along all weekend with a slight kick in period Sun PM offering a chance of some chunkier sets. I doubt whether wave models have got enough granular information to really split hairs like that and I’d be more inclined to choose favourable tides for your intended surf spot.

Winds over the weekend will be unfavourable for Points, with NE winds expected through Sat. Chances of a lighter period of NW winds inshore early Sun, which could light up back beaches and northern corners, especially on the Sunshine Coast. 

Local winds are complicated by a trough moving offshore Sat, and forming a closed surface low early Sun morning off the NSW South Coast. This will bring a W through WSW change, more likely on the Mid North Coast during the PM. Further north it may not reach the Far North Coast and QLD border until after dark. Check below in the comments and we’ll make more calls on it over the weekend as the situation develops. If you can work with the winds over the weekend there’ll be plenty of E swell on offer. 

Next week (Sep6) and beyond

OK, another incredibly dynamic week ahead next week. By Mon morning the Tasman sea will be inflamed with severe gale to potentially storm force winds, as a robust low and reinforcing cold front push into the lower Tasman. Essentially this system looks like a little brother to the last slow moving Tasman low. The localised, proximate fetch of severe gales late Sun is initially tucked in behind the Hunter curve, which blocks Northern NSW from swell.  Unlike the last low, this fetch quickly moves out of the Hunter Curve swell shadow and on current timing we should see a strong S swell pulse propagate up the NSW coast during Mon. This should see surf quickly build into the 3-5ft range across the Mid North Coast around lunch-time, Yamba/Ballina mid-afternoon and the QLD border later a’noon. Fresh S’ly winds accompany the swells arrival as the low and an approaching high tighten a pressure gradient along the NSW/QLD coast. 

That’ll give a mix of E’ly tradewind swell and building S swell with S’ly winds; a recipe for the Points. Outer Points will see 3-4ft surf, larger 3-5ft in NENSW, with surf grading smaller into the inner bays.

Tuesday sees tons of strong surf from the S, peaking at 6ft+ at S exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere and into SEQLD. With the low moving away towards New Zealand and another cold front pushing out of Bass Strait, there’s good odds of a morning offshore flow , producing a good to great morning of surf before winds clock around to the S through SSE through the day when you’ll have to hit the Points up for clean conditions. 

By Wed another strong high starts to nose into the region, bringing light offshore breezes and a’noon seabreezes, conditions should be primo. A complex mix of swell trains is in the water Wed. S/SSE swell from the weekends low and longer period S swell generated by a deep polar low passing under Tasmania late Mon/Tues morning, with seas in excess of 30ft being generated. While the fetch isn’t aimed directly into the Tasman Sea pipe, long period swell trains with plenty of deepwater energy are expected to push wave heights back into the 3-4ft range Wed PM across NENSW. This swell will be smaller in SEQLD, although the longer period should allow it to wrap in better.

Either way, 2-3ft sets will combine with the continuing 3ft of E’ly swell and with lighter winds on offer, beach break options should allow crowd averse surfers to escape the crush on the Points.

The end of next working week looks to settle down, but there will be lots of residual leftover swell trains in the water, courtesy of both the active fetch in the South Pacific, which will have been contracting E’wards from the start of the week and the Southern Tasman, which maintains a very active pattern of fronts and lows passing through next week. 

Given that caveat, and the revisions that could flow from it on Mon, Thurs and Fri look to have lots of small, fun waves with good winds on offer. Thursday should have a mix of inconsistent E swell in the 2-3ft range, with long period S swell in the 3ft range in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Light W winds look likely, with a’noon seabreezes. 

Friday eases further and looks the smallest day out of the current f/cast period with a mix of E and S swells topping out around 2ft and a general light pre-frontal N’ly flow expected as a cold front sweeps across Bass Strait and the state. 

All in all, a very surf filled week with tons of options on offer. 

Longer Term and more S swell is on the radar for next weekend (10/11 Sep)  as a persistent node of the long wave trough steers low pressure into the Tasman. Models are offering divergent outcomes for next weekend but it looks likely a small feature pushing into the Tasman Fri generates S swell Sat, with a larger pulse due either Sun or Mon. Absent any E swell sources popping up, this is likely to favour NSW and see surf ease right back in SEQLD.

Our very active start to Spring looks set to continue.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend.