South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 27 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Long range E swell event with inconsistent surf holding from Thurs-Sat with head high sets, easing back Sun
• Fun blend of SE and E swells this weekend with a slight kick Sun
• SE swell holds Mon AM before easing and holding small Tues
• Kick in SE/ESE swell late Wed, building Thurs
• Another extended E’ly swell event on the radar for next week, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets, blending with dominant S to SE swell
• Fun blend of SSE and E swells this weekend, stronger Sun
• SE swell holds at fun levels Mon, eases through Tues
• Kick in SE/ESE swell late Wed, building Thurs
• Another extended E’ly swell event on the radar for next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

Lots of good to great surf across the entire region since Wed’s f/cast notes. Yesterday saw a strong S swell signal slowly easing through NENSW, with some good leftovers in SEQLD and a generally light offshore flow. By the a’noon long range E’ly tradewind swell muscled up into the 3-4ft range, becoming the dominant signal north of the border. Both swells were again in the water today, with an offshore flow providing surf as clean as it gets for most of NENSW and SEQLD. Points and A frame beachies were on the menu. Winds went funky this a’noon with a period of N’ly winds north of the border while a prevailing W’ly wind kept conditions clean south of the border. All in all a great couple of days of surf. 

This weekend (Aug 28-29)

Not much change from Wednesday’s f/cast notes. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show our Tasman low in a great place, slowly drifting E of Tasmania towards New Zealand, maintaining a nice pressure gradient squeeze with a high pressure cell SE of Tasmania. As expected, the low has filled in a bit, with a corresponding lessening of windspeeds, mostly low end gales, compared to the storm force winds of it’s “bombing” phase. 

Thus our next pulses, despite being from a better SSE angle, will be of a smaller order of magnitude. 

The weekend  still looks great, with a ton of fun waves. Synoptic winds from the low maintain offshore winds through Sat morning, so tick that box. Through the a’noon, they are likely to tend variable, possibly NE, as the low begins a slow NE movement. I think we can still run with Wed’s size estimates. A blend of S and long range E swell in the 3ft range with some inconsistent 4ft sets. 

A slightly bigger SSE pulse is expected through Sun AM with 4ft sets in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD, with a morning offshore flow that is likely to tend W/NW, then NW before an approaching warm front and trough sees winds tend NE to N and freshen. There’ll be some strength in that a’noon Nor-easter so you’ll need to factor it in if Sun PM is your window. Long range E swell will be easing through Sun, so if you are relying on that as the primary swell source, expect long waits for sets with a slow roll off on in size. 

Next week (Aug 30) and beyond

What an incredibly dynamic synoptic set-up greets us to end winter and start Spring. 

To start lets rule out the southern swell window. A solid blocking pattern is expected with a “peanut” high straddling New Zealand next week, forcing the Southern Ocean storm track well to the south and with a NW fetch orientation. 

We’ll be in mop-up mode Mon and Tuesday with residual swell energy from the SSE slowly tailing off. Likely 3-4ft on Mon, dropping back into the 2-3ft range Tuesday and 2ft by close of play. Unbelievably there should still be a signal from the E, with ASCAT passes still showing a broad fetch of ESE strong winds to low end gales in the South Pacific window. With the travel distance expect long waits for 2ft sets.

 Conditions should be excellent with a weak low drifting off the coast Mon, bringing a synoptic W’ly flow and light seabreezes in the a’noon.

Remnants of this weeks Tasman low are expected to drift NE towards the North Island over the weekend and reintensify Sun/Mon with a fetch of severe gales extending out of Cook Strait into the Tasman Sea. These fetches typically favour Central NSW for most size with a resultant ESE swell direction. There has been some model variance on the strength of the fetch but based on current modelling we’re looking at surf building Wed  PM into the 3ft range across NENSW, with a chance of some stray 4ft sets. Expect some 2-3ft sets across SEQLD swell magnets late Wed.

This pulse holds into Thursday AM at similar size with a developing high pressure ridge bringing SE winds, which will likely freshen through Thursday as the ridge becomes more fully established. 

An extended E’ly pattern then sets up, as high pressure straddles New Zealand and the troughy remnants of the Tasman low squeeze pressure gradients along a long, broad fetch extending through the South Pacific adjacent to the North Island and extending into the Coral Sea. Models show this fetch then further retrograding back towards the Australian East Coast to end the working week.  While we’ll need to come back in on Mon to dial in specifics we’re looking at an increase in E’ly swell across most of the Eastern Seaboard possibly as early as next Fri, but certainly through next weekend and into the week starting 6/9. Winds look tricky with a potential small coastal trough bringing a wind change next weekend. Size looks to be in the 3-5ft range but we’ll revise this on Mon.  It looks like a classic late Summer pattern with a ton of surf for the Points.

Have a great weekend and hope you are scoring some surf.