South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 16th July)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny leftovers this weekend with fresh offshore winds Sat, easing Sun
• Small S'ly swell Mon, only for south swell magnets
• Bigger S'ly swell Thurs, easing Fri, fun on the outer points

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny leftovers Sat with gusty offshore winds
• Building S'ly swell Sun with winds easing, size peaking late a'noon (may be a lag in the Far North)
• Broad plateau of moderate S'ly swell Mon with light winds, size easing Tues
• Large, windy S'ly swell building late Wed (MNC), peaking Thurs, easing Fri as winds become light

Recap

Easing E’ly swells maintained 3ft sets on Thursday, easing a little into the afternoon and even holding 2ft early this morning (seemingly from the E/NE?) before fading by lunchtime. Early light winds picked up from the N/NW throughout Thursday (parts of the MNC even saw arvo NE breezes), though today is where we’ve seen stronger winds - along with some impressive cloud formations - as freshening NW breezes swung W’ly in the early afternoon. We’ve also seen building N’ly swells throughout the day across exposed north facing beaches with size in the 2-3ft range throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf south from Ballina. A small south swell is also glancing the Mid North Coast this afternoon, having provided occasional 2ft+ sets to south swell magnets in Southern NSW this morning. 

Peaky N'ly swell at the Superbank this arvo

Friday arvo off Caloundra

This weekend (July 17 - 18)

The source of the current N’ly windswell is moving our of our swell window as the westerly change pushes across the coast, so I’m expecting wave heights to ease overnight. With the fetch active up until late this afternoon (via model data) there’s always the chance for a few stray morning sets at reliable north facing swell magnets on the southern Gold and Tweed Coasts but I’d be surprised if it were much more than a slow 1ft+.

As such, with no other activity in any of our swell windows for the next 24-36 hours, I think we'll see tiny surf throughout SE Qld for the entire weekend. Conditions will be clean with fresh W/NW winds tending W’ly Saturday, easing rapidly into Sunday.

South of the border is a different story though.

A vigorous frontal passage across south-eastern Australia is riding very north in latitude, driving westerly gales across NSW, however it’s disconnected from polar regions within our swell window. This means there’s no active source of south swell right now.

And thus, Saturday will remain near-flat with just tiny remnants of today’s energy at the swell magnets. If we’re lucky, south swell magnets south of Byron may pick up faint lines from the south, leftover from today’s small south swell. But it won’t amount to much more than the odd 1.5ft set. It’ll be blustery with fresh W/NW winds, gusty at times on the Mid North Coast.

Sunday however has a new south swell on the way. 

Late on Saturday, the axis of the Long Wave Trough (driving these fronts) will cross into the Tasman Sea, and we’ll see W/SW tending SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait. We only need the fetch to be slightly south of west to generate acute south swell for Northern NSW, so Sunday’s looking at an upwards trend all day, starting small but pushing 3-5ft at south facing beaches by late in the day. 


The Mid North Coast often does a little better than everywhere else in Northern NSW so expect the upper end of this size range here, smaller further north. Also, there may be a lag in the Far North on this swell so don’t expect much upwards movement until later on (Monday will see a broader peak across all coasts). 

And of course, these flukey south swells only favour south swell magnets so expect much smaller surf at any beach not open to the south - including almost all of south-east Queensland. 

The good news is that Sunday should be generally clean across most coasts with rapidly easing W/SW winds. 

Next week (July 19 onwards)

Sunday’s frontal activity will remain busy overnight, so we can expect a continuation of south swell into Monday morning throughout Northern NSW. In fact, a second region of swell generation just east of Tasmania on Sunday should create some additional energy for Monday, though the mix of swells will probably just reach a comparable size to late Sunday (though, the Far North will probably see a peak Mon instead of Sun). 

Expect 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, much smaller at beaches not open to the south, and clean conditions with light offshore winds.

Across SE Qld, most beaches will dip out (i.e. 1ft or less) but exposed northern ends and south swell magnets - mainly on the Gold Coast - may pick up stray 2-3ft sets. I would be very wary of setting any level of expectation for this though… it’s a super flukey source and is more likely to disappoint than stoke.

Wave heights will slowly easing into Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds remaining offshore. They’ll strengthen again into Wednesday as another powerful front crosses the south-east corner of the country. 

This front is now likely to form a small low off the Southern NSW coast by early Wednesday, and an associated tight pressure gradient is expected to result in gale to storm force S’ly winds in close proximity to the coast. This has ramped up size expectations for late Wednesday and Thursday though it’ll also result in much windier conditions that’ll only favour sheltered points and protected southern corners. 

Current thinking is that most regions will see small leftovers on Wednesday morning but the late afternoon should see a rapid increase across the Mid North Coast, pushing into the Far North overnight and Thursday, where south facing beaches could pick up wind affected 6-8ft sets. However this is dependent on just how strong the winds become, how well aligned they are within our swell window, and how long they hang around for. I’ll refine the outlook on Monday. 

This would be a swell event only suitable for sheltered points and southern ends - which will be much smaller - however the SE Qld region may also suffer from the direction being a little too south, and the source being a little too local. 

Still, for now let’s peg size around the 2-3ft+ mark across the outer Gold Coast points (slightly smaller on the Sunshine Coast) but bigger and wind affected at exposed northern ends. 

Wave heights will then trend steadily down through Friday and Saturday as winds ease and conditions quickly improve. 

Just quickly - there’s an interesting blocking high sitting way out near Tahiti in the model runs for next week, which may provide some small long range E’ly swell for next weekend. Let’s take a closer look on Monday.

Otherwise, there’s nothing of significance in the long term forecast standing out right now.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!