South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 9th July)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small windy waves Saturday, chance for a flukey S'ly swell late a'noon at south swell magnets
• Solid, windy S'ly swell on Sunday, best for the semi-exposed points
• Easing S/SE swell with light winds Monday, best for the semi-exposed points
• Small surf Tues onwards

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Windy weekend ahead with a rapidly building S'ly swell mix Sat, peaking early Sun
• Large though easing swells Mon with rapidly improving conditions, best Tues with light winds and more manageable surf
• Chance for a small flukey SE swell Wed, mainly Mid North Coast
• Decent S'ly swell prospects next weekend onwards under a LWT pattern

Recap

Easing E/NE swells from the Trough Block offered 3ft sets across most coasts on Thursday, with a building S’ly swell throwing in 4ft sets across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches through the day. Conditions were generally clean with light winds. Smaller E’ly swells today had some additional input from local NE windswells across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, pushing a little higher than expected (occasionally 2-3ft, see D'Bah surfcam grab late this evening, below) though northerly winds rendered must breaks quite bumpy until the W’ly change kicked in mid-late a’noon. Persistent S’ly swells have also kept south facing beaches south of the border busy with peaky 3ft+ sets. 

D'Bah Friday evening

Late lines at Sunshine

This weekend (July 10-11)

A Tasman Low is developing off the Southern NSW coast and will be a source of strong surf this weekend. 

However, we’ll also see strengthening W’ly tending SW then S’ly gales across Northern NSW as the low clips the coast. This swing in the wind direction will occur earliest in the south (i.e. Mid North Coast) and later as you head north. In fact some parts of SE Qld may not see an appreciable swing in the wind to the south until early-mid Sunday morning, thanks to local effects offering a brief sou'western at dawn. 

As for swell, we’ve got a multitude of inbound energy. And just to recap, the existing long range S’ly swell (present today across Northern NSW) will hang around for Saturday, but it’ll be overtaken by local energy from the low. 

To begin with, S’ly gales around the low’s western flank won’t properly develop within our south swell window until early Saturday morning, and that will be south from the Mid North Coast down to Southern NSW. A rough translation time for the associated large swells to generate and propagate to our region puts the earliest arrival time around lunch on the Mid North Coast, and late afternoon on the Far North Coast. 

However, prior to this, W/SW gales extending off the Hunter and Mid North Coasts overnight tonight may create an unusual sideband south swell for a handful of exposed south swell magnets.

We’ve seen this pattern develop a few times in previous years, and it’s a low confidence event - because the fetch is angled almost perpendicular to the coast! - but it’s certainly plausible for occasional 2-3ft+ sets from late morning onwards across Northern NSW, and with winds holding W/SW for most of the day in the Far North, there’s a chance for a blustery surf session here and there.

Don’t expect much north of the border though, only exposed northern ends are likely to feel a small percentage of this energy (if at all). 

Righto! 

Then the main swell event will kick in late Saturday across the Mid North Coast, pushing north across remaining coasts late afternoon and into Sunday morning. 

How big? Kinda doesn’t matter for Northern NSW, given that there’ll be 30kts+ of S’ly breeze on top, but south facing beaches south of the border should push 8ft at the height of the swell, with bigger 10ft sets across the Mid North Coast, and it’ll only be rideable at protected southern corners and points, where surf size will be a lot smaller.

This is an intensification of the predicted strength of the low since Wednesday’s model runs, so there’s been a weekend size upgrade in today’s forecast notes.

Of course, this all seemingly bodes well for the SE Qld points on Sunday, though south swells aren’t the preferred swell direction - they always shave off a healthy percentage of size once they round Point Danger (and Cape Moreton), and usually don’t favour many breaks in the same way an east or south-east (or north-east) swell do. But, winds will be ideal for many of these spots and with an afternoon peak in get 3-5ft range (smaller in the morning) there should be some good waves on offer. 

South swell magnets north of the border will be much bigger but out of control with the southerly breeze. Expect a gradual easing south of the border through the day too.

Next week (July 12 onwards)

Rapidly easing S tending S/SE swells on Monday will be accompanied by much lighter S’ly winds.

Northern NSW’s south swell magnets should ease from 6ft+ to 4-5ft through the day, with much smaller surf elsewhere. Expect some leftover wobble on the surface, though conditions will gradually improve.

Across SE Qld, the slight swing in the swell direction may in fact improve surf quality from Sunday, although size will be steadily easing from 3-4ft to 2-3ft across the semi-exposed points. If anything expect a little less size on the Sunshine Coast compared to the Gold Coast.

A further easing is then expected through Tuesday with light variable winds. We’ll be back to the open beaches by this time (4ft south of the border, 2ft+ north) and light winds under a weak pressure gradient will maintain clean conditions.

Most of next week looks relatively uninteresting on the charts, with very little activity across the Tasman Sea.

Wednesday has an interesting, sneaky long range SE swell on the cards, but probably only for the Mid North Coast, maybe parts of the Northern Rivers at a pinch. This is expected to originate from a broad, complex series of polar lows currently well SE of New Zealand, that may have slipped under your radar thanks to the developing Tasman Low off the NSW coast. Check 'em out.. at least five low pressure centres overnight Saturday!

Model guidance has a late Tuesday arrival in Southern NSW, reaching the Mid North Coast lunchtime Wednesday but I suspect we’ll see it by early Wednesday here. Let’s peg inconsistent sets around the 2-3ft mark and keep our expectations low. 

The long term outlook has a couple of small peripheral systems generating minor swell activity for the back half of the week, however we’re still looking at the prospects of an amplifying LWT across the south-eastern corner of the country next weekend, and a resulting spell of strong south swell for Northern NSW from Sunday through most of next week.

However not all models are keen on the specifics, so we’ll have to iron them out next week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!