Large S swell this weekend followed by SE pulse for next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 16th June)
Outlook (tl;dr)
- SE swell to fill in late Thursday/early Friday but it’ll only be about 2ft
- Late Friday/early Saturday a new S swell to arrive best for S swell magnets
- This S swell will quickly build throughout Saturday peaking at 10ft late Saturday for the MNC
- For N NSW waves will peak early Sunday morning around 8ft
- SE QLD will only get a fraction of the size as the swell is too S to wrap around the corner
- Winds will be strong and SW during the peak of the swell and into the start of next week
- Reinforcing S/SE swell to arrive late Monday up around the 5-6ft+ mark keeping wave height solid until the middle of next week
Recap
Yesterday we had 2ft of E to E/SE swell and with light and variable offshore winds conditions were nice. South of the border waves were a little bigger in that 2-3ft mark out of the E and winds were similar, light and offshore for most of the day.
This morning it is noticeably smaller. We have an inconsistent 1-2ft of E to SE swell. Winds are light and offshore for now so conditions are clean there just isn’t a lot of push in the swell.
The rest of this week
We have an exciting weekend ahead but before then there is a remnant E swell and new SE swell on the cards for late tomorrow into Friday.
While the charts aren’t picking up on it too well, a fetch of S/SE winds to the west and south of NZ’s South Island earlier in the week will bring a little 2ft pulse late tomorrow. While nothing too exciting it’ll bring more energy to the water than what we had today.
Winds tomorrow (Thursday) will be strong out of the NW early tending more W and strengthening as a Tasman low forms off the coast. There could be a little NE windswell south of the border but I wouldn’t expect much from it. Any bump will be ironed out with strong offshore winds along the northwestern edge of a Tasman low keeping conditions clean.
On Friday the Tasman low will really ramp up with the northwestern flank of the low directing strong W/SW winds across the region. There will only be the small SE swell and remnants of the E swell on offer but conditions will be clean.
The weekend 
The progression of the Tasman low has been brought forward with the southwestern flank of the low really coming to life Friday afternoon and directing a better aimed S/SE swell building quickly on Saturday, peaking Saturday afternoon for the MNC and on Sunday morning for further north.
Wave heights are looking to peak up around the 10ft mark for the MNC on Saturday afternoon while N NSW sees waves up around the 8ft mark for early Sunday morning. SE QLD will only see a fraction of this as the swell is too S.
This large surge of swell, late Saturday/into Sunday is thanks to a strengthening and broadening gale-force S/SE winds surging up the coast during Friday evening into Saturday.
Winds will be strong and W/SW for most of Saturday before they turn more S/SW on Sunday. With the strength of these winds southern corners will be the pick as the swell peaks.
Further ahead
Monday morning will see the swell lingering around that 6ft+ mark early before a pulse of S/SE swell arrives late on Monday keeping wave heights in that 5-6ft mark into Tuesday. Ths pulse will come from a strong fetch of winds to the west of NZ’s South Island as a ridge squeezes the isobars of the low.
For SE QLD this S/SE pulse will mean more of the swell gets around the corner resulting in a more even distribution of swell heights across the region.
Waves will be around 3ft Tuesday, a little bigger at magnets and a bit smaller inside the points. The Sunny coast will be a touch smaller.
Winds will continue to be out of the S/SW, again keeping the cleanest conditions to the southern corners.
By Wednesday the last of the swell will be filling in with waves 4ft+ south of the border before things settle towards the end of the week. While waves will be smaller there should be more options on offer.
The longer term outlook is looking promising as mid latitude lows continue to meander in from the west providing plenty of volatile weather and swell potential for us further ahead.
Comments
More swell and more wind for the next week. Yay, crowded protected corners can't wait.
You should update your username to 'RockettheSadSack'
I bet the waves won't be as good as this week. Those small mid period east swells are the best
Sounds like another bank buster. As usual, SEQ will miss out. Bummed, I'll take a 3-4 east over an 8 south any day.
If only surfers could travel to other spots which handled the swell. That’s some John Lennon style imaginings though, heh? Obviously impossible to get in your car and point it towards good waves.
Lol - your comment assumes much as usual Blowin. We are not all retired boomers with a tankful in the Prado mate. I'd be surprised if many people clock up the klms as much as me chasing waves, but regardless, I'm sure the north coast locals will welcome your invitation for the GC hoards to visit their patch :)
Who wants to drive 2 hours down the coast to end up surfing Lennox and have it crowded because it's the only quality wave on the coast handling the wind?
no banks, all gone from the last big swell.
Yeh well then there's no reason to travel at all....Haha
Boomer? I’m a half decade younger than yourself. There’s more to Queensland surfing than the Gold Coast!
Don't stress mate, I wasn't implying you are a boomer, only that its not always easy to drop everything and go. BTW, I'd love to hear your thoughts on where in QLD, not on the GC, that could light up under the weekend forecast conditions because I sure don't know it.
Would love to know too. Can't wait.....
Keep this under your hat….
https://www.australiazoo.com.au/
Cheers for the invite blowin!!!! Me and my troopy full of novice mates will be flooding your points all weekend!!! Ill be sure to mention your name to the locals.....
Yep. Bells and Winki are going to be ON!
You did leave yourself wide open for a pay-out after that comment Blowin....still waiting on your mega south swell magnet in QLD - not on the Goldie :)
might shift some sand around.
deep banks and scoured headlands at the moment.
great for jewfishing.
Lost a horse off the rocks yesterday morning.
Shame. Regret. Self recriminations.
yep, I had three hook-ups for three bust ups.
It was fucking with my head.
finally put a nice metre plus fish on the rocks yesterday morning.
I’m stepping away from lures for Jew. Too much fluffing around. Threw plastics and hardbodies for ages totalling zero fish yesterday. Put a fresh tailor head on a hook and on in five minutes. I’m done with braid too. Give me my old 24 kilo mono and a fresh bait or livey anyday. Keep it simple then give ‘em the big don’t argue.
It’s one thing to be casting proactively and covering ground but I just want to wait, chill and watch the sun come up for the same result. It also reduces the potential to go seriously arse up on the rocks. Yesterday’s dew made the rocks so slippery that fishing was like something out of Grublets on ice.
I hear you.
dead baits don't really do the trick around here and the country is so mongrel you lose too much gear.
Liveys are the go, but you can spend as much time or more chasing liveys.
I fish the tide changes with lures, already rigged ready to go.
If I had more time I'd fish more liveys.
Most of my fishing sessions are less than an hour, lots less than half an hour.
I was on the rocks at 5.20am yesterday morning, standing on the headland sipping coffee at 5.30 with a jew in the bag.
Metre plus! Wow.
thats not a massive fish Craig.
just nice keeping school fish in the 10-12 kg range.
30kg+ is a good fish.
I'd love to bag something over 100cm ha. When I do actually take up fishing..
fishing is good in Sydney, amazingly.
Yeah have a few mates into it, catching Kingies and Bonito off the rocks. Good fun.
I’m so jealous of your rock fishing you have up north.
Fish off the rocks here and you’ll get a parrot fish or sweep.
Occasionally you can get Snapper in the bay off piers and the beach in a big blow up
rock fishing is tough here, not many high platforms or big sloping headlands like the MNC.
you need the ducks to line-up, which means mostly small surf.
hardly got any fishing done last winter because there was so much surf.
Just for Blowin, the other thing about using big dead baits or live baits is sharks .
almost no chance on lures, 50/50 chance with a big dead bait or livey.
On the rocks in the dark again this morning only to find the first forerunners of the South swell. Not big but big enough to make the spot I was going to fish a little bit dodgy. Found another location in a Southern corner and also found a nice patch of tailor. The old bloke upstairs reckons fresh tailor is his favourite fish. He actually prefers it to the coral trout I gave him over thx weekend! Cant say I understand that one…
South swell filling in here now. Beautiful offshore conditions. Three to four foot on the outside banks at exposed locations already.
Freeride - I’ll deal with the Noah problem if it becomes a thing. Not much of an issue at the moment.
Goofy- What have I told you about Victoria? Worst state for surfing, worst state for fishing. Though even I’ve got to admit that it’s a great place if you enjoy intermittent periods of house arrest. The best!
On the stones early this morning too. Threw hardbodies and metals for an hour, for not even a follow. Had to resort to turning some crabs into a feed of bream. Zero S swell where I was, but that's par for the course. Part of the problem, water super clear, no decent wash. Still looked pretty fishy, thought I would've crossed paths with a tailor. Glamour morning.
Great morning on the Time Warp Coast!
some perfect babyfood peelers here.
My favourite surf is 6-8ft Point or reef surf.
second favourite, unattended perfect babyfood peelers.
That it was! Not the worst plan b though. Been some stonking breambo's around lately. And those clean sea bream eat well.
thre some placcies in the river the other week while my boy was at the rugby league knock-out comp and I had some time to kill.
caught the biggest bream I've ever caught on a 4 inch paddle tail.
thought it was a juvey GT it pulled so hard.
let it go.