South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 29th March)

Best Days: S swell peaking on Thursday but with strong S winds. Looking better over the Easter long weekend and into next week.

Outlook:

• S winds and mid period S swell combine meaning small waves in southern corners for most the working week
• Low in Coral Sea to create E swell from the weekend creating more interesting conditions
• E swell to peak on Sunday with potential for more later next week

Recap

Over the weekend we had offshore winds early across most locations with small but fun waves out of the E/SE on offer. Winds turned onshore around the middle of the day for most spots on both days.

This morning it was generally 1-2ft across the region with the high tide slowing it down at most spots. Light winds early created nice conditions but SE winds built throughout the day. 

This week

Well as this E/SE swell fades a new mid period S swell will begin to build in on Tuesday morning. 

Winds will be stronger than they have been the last few days with fresh to strong S winds. It’ll be lighter and more offshore early but not like it was over the weekend. This means it’ll be bumpy at most spots that are copping the brunt of the swell from mid morning onwards. 

This new swell is being generated by a front, trough and low squeezing a ridge of high pressure to the east of Tassie. It is creating persistent strong winds aimed towards our coastline with 3ft waves out of the S expected. 

For the Mid N Coast and N NSW, the swell looks to build throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday, reaching the 3ft+ mark on Thursday as the winds intensify around the low and tend more S/SE. This swell will linger slowly easing to the 2-3ft mark into start of the weekend. As is always the case for S swells it'll be smaller for SE QLD.

Unfortunately with the low moving north and east towards NZ, stronger S winds will accompany the entire swell event. This means you’ll need to stick to the southern corners where less of the swell will wrap in.

Winds will swing more out of the E/SE from Friday and into the weekend. Lighter offshore winds will also be less likely for SE QLD as a ridge of high pressure directs SE winds in towards the coast. 

The weekend and into the new week

A tropical low in the Coral Sea will begin to edge S towards our swell window on Saturday, squeezing the ridge of high pressure over the coast and generating some new E/SE swell. 

There is a bit of uncertainty with this system but with all models agreeing upon a general region of low pressure over the Coral Sea it will direct E/SE winds in towards the coast regardless.

At this stage, I’d expect the Sunshine Coast to get the most swell size out of this system. Generally it’ll be 4-6ft for SE QLD and N NSW and more like 4ft for the Mid N Coast. The peak looks to be around Sunday, slowly easing on Monday but lingering for much of the week. 

For the weekend for SE QLD and N NSW winds will be out of the E/SE and moderate. As the low approaches the coast at the start of the new week expect winds to strengthen and tend more S/SE. 

As is usually the case with these swells, it’ll be best along the points with the open beaches being too bumpy from the winds. 

For the Mid N Coast over the weekend winds will be more out of the N. Lighter and offshore in the morning with an afternoon sea breeze out of the NE. Winds will tend S on Monday with a change.

The S change will add some S swell energy to the mix with a potential S groundswell making its way up the coast combining with the E swell from the tropical low. 

It's looking very interesting for later in the week too but it’ll depend on the movement of the low in the Coral Sea so tune back in on Wednesday for an update.