Large, wet and windy

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 11th December)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building swells Saturday are likely to be too big for pretty much everywhere Sunday and Monday
  • Winds should tend S'ly (at strength) across parts of SE Qld on Sunday, and may become light into Monday
  • Strong onshores remain likely south from Ballina into Monday, easing from Tuesday
  • Large swells will then ease from Monday afternoon onwards
  • N'ly winds are a risk much of next week. Tues/Wed look the safest right now (mainly north from Ballina)
  • Stacks of swell for the long term despite the tricky wind outlook
  • Interesting long period cyclone swell on the cards for the long term

Recap: Wednesday’s late S’ly swell on the Mid North Coast spluttered and splurted through Thursday, though there were isolated reports of 3-4ft sets across some Northern NSW south swell magnets. In general, surf size was much smaller, and size eased into today, with occasional 2-3ft sets. There hasn’t been much swell north of the border both days either though we are seeing small E'ly sets this afternoon. 

Calm before the storm at Currumbin

Your foil SUP will be useless by Sunday, buddy.... actually, so too will my 6'0. 

This weekend (Dec 12 - 13)

A series of complex tropical systems are forming across our coast, and also way out across the tropical South Pacific, They’re going to heavily influence our surf, wind and weather over the coming days. 

A simple read of the forecast charts shows that we’re looking steadily building swells Saturday, then rapidly Sunday (delayed a little further south), where there are some impressive surf height projections - 12-15ft Gold Coast, for example, and a clean 15ft on the Mid North Coast. 

This is the result of a slow moving, deepening trough through the central southern Coral Sea, within close proximity to the mainland. Winds could reach 40-50kts around the southern flank of the low, but it’s the sustained winds within our swell window that will greatly enhance surf size compared to a transitory fetch.

That being said, 15ft is probably a little over the top for this system, especially north from Byron where we’ll see a slightly less favourable alignment in the swell window. And, it’ll be very windy. The east coast isn’t really conditioned for swells of this size, with just a limited number of protected bays and coves that might offer rideable options. So, keep your expectations low, even once the peak of the swell passes.

Despite the tricky outlook, I need to put some kind of size on the next few days. Short range E’ly swells are just starting to show now and should build steadily through Saturday, from 2-3ft to 3-5ft through the day though with strengthening SE thru’ E/SE winds. 

Size will start to step-ladder up on Sunday and winds should start to veer more S’ly across SE Qld - though we are still at risk of SE winds at some point. Depending on how the trough develops (we may see small embedded lows along the trough line), winds could also temporarily swing SW, probably north from the Gold Coast if anywhere though. 

But south from Byron, it’s a fair chance that we’ll be socked in from the SE all day Sunday, at gale force strength. 

Surf size will build all day Sunday and should probably reach 10ft at most exposed coasts (there could be a delay on this across the Mid North Coast). I think a peak is likely early Monday, but I’ll keep a close eye on things and will update in the comments over the weekend. 

Next week (Dec 14 onwards)

Of course, Monday will be huge. You don’t need me to tell you that. And most breaks - even many points and sheltered spots - will be a wash out. 

We’re not really used to these kinds of large, short range swells and there’ll be an enormous amount of water moving through the lineup, so it’s probably best not to plan to surf on Monday, as you’re likely to be disappointed. The synoptics are throwing up more points of concern than stoke for this period. Size should push 10-12ft across exposed parts of the Mid North Coast.

The only exception to this is SE Qld, where we’ll start to see light variable winds as the trough drops to the south, focusing its attention to the Mid North Coast and Hunter region. Wave heights are likely to be somewhere around 10ft across the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers (how many breaks can handle that?), probably a little smaller across the Sunshine Coast (say, 8ft exposed spots) and as the wavelength starts to draw out, it should allow more points, reefs and protected corners to start to come into play. There is certainly a threat of lingering onshore winds from the NE at times though. I'll monitor this over the weekend and update accordingly.

Model guidance doesn’t seem to like the prospects of onshore winds easing south from Ballina or Yamba until Tuesday, but even at that point we’ll still be seeing 6-8ft+ surf across exposed spots (smaller to the north, say 5-6ft Gold Coast and a little smaller on the Sunny Coast). So, as the swell continues to ease, opportunities will start to open up.

That being said, I’m also a little concerned that the models are pushing the trough just ashore through this time frame - not only will this maintain heavy rainfall, it also increases the chances for local NE winds, even if only light to moderate in strength in the north (stronger in the south).

Wednesday through Friday will then level out with ‘background’ 3-5ft sets, thanks to the slow decaying nature of the source fetch in the western Tasman Sea, including a broad supporting ridge north of New Zealand. Northerlies are a concern throughout this time frame (more so south from Byron than north) but given the complex nature of the charts, we really need a few more days to asses the potential. So, don’t look too much into it right now.

Looking further ahead, and just to rewind the clock back to this coming weekend: it’s very likely that within the next 24 hours we’ll see one, possibly two tropical cyclones develop north and north-west of Fiji (RSMC-Nadi is monitoring two tropical disturbances: TD01F and TD02F, see below - JTWC has actually named one as a cyclone (04P) however their threshold criteria is different). 

We’ll probably end up with one dominant tropical cyclone by Sunday, and this is then expected to intensify to Cat 4 or Cat 5 early next week, pin-balling between Fiji and Vanuatu for a few days under a weak steering influence.

However this will all occur inside the swell shadow of New Caledonia - the cyclone is not expected to properly slip south into our swell window until the end of next week or the weekend (of which there’s then a 2+ day travel time for any swell to reach our region).

That being said, there’s a few small regions of partial clearance where small long period E/NE or NE energy could reach the mainland. Model guidance suggest the main energy could start to arrive next Saturday or Sunday (18+ seconds!) but there’s actually potential for an arrival much earlier than this - but we really need a few more days to asses the early stages of the cyclone’s genesis, to see if its wind field matches that of the model guidance. It’s a really tricky system to have confidence in. 

So, get ready for a whole stack of swell, some of which will hopefully be surfable!

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 6:55pm

In case it's not obvious in the essay above, I'm finding it hard to get enthused about the next week of waves. 

tomrnoir's picture
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tomrnoir Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 9:54pm

I'm buzzing for some 3 hour-long, 1 wave sessions @ Noosa. Will be good to get out there regardless. Enos should turn on!

Matb's picture
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Matb Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 7:03pm

I agree Ben but good to see the rain !

Badrse's picture
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Badrse Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 7:10pm

Going to be some gold amongst it for sure, great reporting as usual!!

Rockethut's picture
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Rockethut Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 7:47pm

Swell activity is still better than no activity! Sure to be some surfable waves even if everyone flocks to coolies.

farquarson's picture
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farquarson Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 8:01pm

More enthused about the rain potential than the waves , the dams pretty low , should be full by monday & more importantly it looks like falling on fraser island.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 10:23pm

Radar and rain rates look very wet already.

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 10:34pm

Noosa will be off tits for the next coupla weeks starting tomorrow. Banks are primed. Yewwwww!!!!!! Off tits!!!! OFF TITS!!!!!!

tomrnoir's picture
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tomrnoir Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 10:50pm

Low-tide BP on Sunday will be cranking. Drone city.

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 10:41pm

Really like the highlight dot points at the top Ben. I do enjoy the analysis but it’s nice to have that quick reference point.

tomrnoir's picture
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tomrnoir Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 10:44pm

Seconded. Really good addition!

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:30am

Thanks mate.

_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_ Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 10:54pm

great forecast notes benny! I just hope the TC doesn't track east too soon and misses our swell window as shown on one GFS model (tropicaltidbits). but as you noted it's complex and more time is needed to increase ones confidence. altho it appears swell is certainly on its way which is great to see. cheers pal

gromnuggets's picture
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gromnuggets Friday, 11 Dec 2020 at 11:19pm

Have had a trip to north strad planned all year. I’ve been eagerly reviewing the notes over the last 2 weeks and it looks like there’ll be some good options over there whichever way the wind swings. Thanks for the always in depth analysis ben, yeeew.

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:24am

A fairly significant change to the TC developments in this mornings EC run.

JWTC also having a bet each way.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:32am

You reckon? Still seems to suggest it'll pinball between New Cal/Fiji/Vanuatu all week, emerging from behind the swell shadow at the end of the week. 

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:28am

I was referring more to our swell potential.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:31am

what do you see wrt to that Don?

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:50am

It does look like one of the models is showing it to hit NW coast of Fiji at full force.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:26am

Teeming down here right now. Impressive rainfall figures since 9am y'day:

Sunshine Coast Airport: 93mm
Moreton Island: 73mm
Cooper Shoot (near Byron): 118mm
Lake Ainsworth: 108mm
Minnie Water: 104mm
Boambee Res. (Coffs Harbour): 141mm
Bowraville (inland from Nambucca Heads): 155mm

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:32am

100mm in the gauge overnight.

Not pumped at all on this first close range system- big stormy dog of a swell. Probably go ride close-out toobs at Main beach.

This TC in the South Pac is a classic example of swell shielding from New Cal.
Three or 4 days it wanders around up there at Cat3, 4 or 5 strength.

Would be sending large, long period groundswell this way that entire time.

Not sure what is in the notes but if that trough/surface low crosses the coast as forecast there is going to be a nasty, lingering NE flow in behind it that will hang around like a bad smell.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:29am

Clean options across the Gold Coast early morning too.




tiger's picture
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tiger Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:37am

Skunked down my way. Easterly already tearing it apart. There goes our only probable window.

crg's picture
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crg Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:50am

Wind has killed it down here...think I’ll pull some pre-Christmas overtime the next week...

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:51am

clean here but small and swallowed by the high tide.

tiger's picture
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tiger Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:38am

Wind just went back south, but ocean is so junkified.

Surfalot67's picture
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Surfalot67 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:47am

Still tiny and buried under the tide. Waiting waiting

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 9:57am

Wow, interesting read on the comments. No complaints here on the beachies. Fun, a little full yes, but set waves all the way to the beach. Compared to what we've had last couple weeks, I'm cheering.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 10:00am

Four to a wave at Currumbin!

Otherwise looks fat but fun.

dazzler's picture
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dazzler Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 11:19pm

I can confirm it was fat this morning, I’m in the 2nd pic.

Long rides but a bit slow.

Everywhere was else better, go there tomorrow.

adsi's picture
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adsi Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 12:55pm

Timed it perfect went out at 10.15 when winds were still light offshore and it built the whole time will i got out at 11.30 (tide was getting bit low for the beachy and wind was coming up).
Glad to finally get a nice sesh with good sized/shaped waves

Greg Neverka's picture
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Greg Neverka Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 3:41pm

Ben, thanks for this. Stuck in quarantine until the 21st as coming from NorCal. How are we looking on the Gold Coast for 21st and beyond for the season? Thanks! Greg

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 3:48pm

Just got out from 3-4ft Tea tree. Bit of a bump but quiet as. Get there early tomorrow to get a park....u might get ur wave on the news!!!

tomrnoir's picture
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tomrnoir Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 5:01pm

I was between Tea Tree and Boiling Pot between 9-1230ish, most waves 2ft - 3ft sets, 3-4ft at the absolute most. Was a mini Snapper at the Pot, properly cranking. Certainly very crowded at both Dolphin Point and the Pot, with loggers littering the shoulders. Surprised you found it quiet.

Tristan Goose's picture
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Tristan Goose Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 6:26pm

Yeah I was out at similar time and had similar thoughts regarding crowd and size

blow-in-9999's picture
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blow-in-9999 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 11:43pm

Would have hit 4-5' at carties on dark*. Super quiet all the (boogie) crew seem to be holding out for the back end. NFI why with the winds.

* Was 3'ish at 4pm so I'm doubtful of 3-4' at Noosa.

nick.minor's picture
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nick.minor Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 10:20pm

I went to multiple beaches today on the sunny coast for different watersports and just checking. Don't think I saw a 4 foot wave (before 4pm). Would be surprised at Noosa being 4...

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 10:33pm

It's a rare swell that turtles/rock handles 5ft, doubt it was near that size, but potato/potatoe.

blow-in-9999's picture
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blow-in-9999 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 11:39pm

Sprout it was all washtroughs when the rain stopped. I paddled in between sets.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:11am

Haha yeah fair enough.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 5:39pm

Torrential on the Tweed.

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:07am

Some Impressive overnight rain totals down your way Ben. Mbah may flood?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 5:45pm

fun little 3-4ft sesh on the dropping tide before that morning SW flow went hard SE.
last surf on the bank that has been insane for 10 months.
farewell.

stormy mess now of indeterminate size.

that cyclone is going to sit there semi-stationary for days behind the swell shadow of New Cal.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:08pm

160mm as of 5pm.

probably just over 200mm now with current rain rates.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 7:54pm

And gusts up to 37 knots at the airport - pretty breezy for this part of the world.

spidermonkey's picture
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spidermonkey Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:09pm

Calling noosa 3-4 ft today, that's a stretch. Packed with beginners absolute zoo. Lets see how tomorrow pans out

Tristan Goose's picture
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Tristan Goose Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 12:19am

yeah tea tree was fat and crowded and pot wasn't really big enough to be working

nick.minor's picture
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nick.minor Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:08am

0 German backpackers today in marochydore. Pretty big

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 8:30pm

Insane winds on the Tweed right now, dead east, gusting 40-50kts.

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 12 Dec 2020 at 9:52pm

Where are you getting these wind readings for the Tweed from Ben?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:01am

Estimates from my place, though there's a good correlation with with Byron AWS when it's E'ly (which was recording similar strengths). 

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 12:53am

Mate... Noosa points were all time today. I saw a 5and a1/2ft set at tea tree. Best thing is its only gonna get better over the next week. Plenty of room for more people.....SUPs, surfmats, kneelos, foils....kayaks, windsurfers, Goat boats. No legropes necessary!!!!!
All welcome. Sharing is caring......namaste.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:21am

Cheeky. Heard the other spot down the other end is rubbish.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:06am

Go easy on him fellas. He’s a young boy laying down on his tummy. The waves must have looked frighteningly big from down there

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:10am

Namaste

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:09am

OK, a couple of highlight rainfall totals since 9am yesterday:

Nothing over 10mm on the Sunshine Coast (but.. just you wait...)

Gold Coast
Upper Springbrook - 424mm
Upper Tallebudgera - 328mm
Currumbin Ck - 363mm

Northern Rivers (Tweed/Byron/Ballina)
Tomewin (just west of Kingscliff) - 364mm
Bilambil Heights - 279mm
Bald Mountain - 255mm
Bray Park - 191mm
Numinbah - 298mm
Upper Burringbar Rd - 222mm
Middle Pocket - 228mm
Repentance - 173mm
Alstonville - 119mm

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:14am

Actually, the BOM page I got that data from may be a little out of date (3:12am). Latest figures suggest Numinbah is 376mm and nearby Couchy Creek is 393mm.

The BOM also posted at 1:20am:

"Intense and very heavy rainfall has been observed over areas inland of Tweed Heads, about the border ranges with Queensland, including 215mm in two hours at Tomewin. Dangerous and life threatening flash flooding is possible."

Wow.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:01am

Wow+1. Absolutely flash flooding. I’ve witnessed it once and it’s shocking

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:15am

Yikes!

I saw 67mm in 45min once here in Wellington, and it was unbelievable.

Those figures are incredible, Ben.

All the best surviving then flooding, and hopefully scoring some waves.

FR, sorry to hear about the bank. You guys should throw a little thank you party in its honour.

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 2:31pm

400mm. Fark. A big wet one down here in Vic is like 10-15mm haha

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:16am

So, Upper Springbrook ended up with 475mm Saturday and another 211mm yesterday. So that's 686mm in 48 hours.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:38am

We appear to have water quality issues at Currumbin. That's a lot of flotsam being purged from the creek too (centre right, third image).


Dannon's picture
Dannon's picture
Dannon Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:41am

Yuck...
Check out the Alex cam.
Theres two skis buzzing thou the line up.
Wtf ?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:43am

There's a ski trying to get out at Currumbin too. Dunno why, it looks terrible.

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 11:08am

Way easier launching from the alley to head north/south, than it is navigating the tweedbar when it's like what today is dishing up. Couple skis past kirra groyne earlier would be the crew.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:25am

It's over 2ft, the bluff geriatrics need all the help they can get.

Tristan Goose's picture
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Tristan Goose Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 11:08am

Was out Alex before, there’s a boardriders comp on and they are using the skis for the contest

cam.jw's picture
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cam.jw Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 1:10pm

There’s a comp on @ Alex, jetskis are taking the grommies out (13 year olds)

Tristan Goose's picture
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Tristan Goose Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 2:11pm

Hahah the old blokes and all of their crew who weren’t even in heats were making full use of this skis as well

toncie's picture
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toncie Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:37pm

Last I had a look it was only the skis left out there. Couldn't see anywhere for a wave this arvo. Wonder what it looks like around the corner from the cam at Noosa, maybe boogiefever will let us know after his sesh today.

Tristan Goose's picture
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Tristan Goose Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 10:04pm

Went out at Alex late arvo (4:40 to 6:30 ish) and actually had a great surf... first good surf at alex ever maybe

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:17am

From the BOM:

MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TUMBULGUM THIS MORNING

Updated - Higher flood levels forecast for Tumbulgum this morning with minor flooding now expected at Chinderah

Moderate flooding is expected along the Tweed River at Tumbulgum on this morning, forecasts have been raised to reflect higher than expected tides observed at the entrance to the Tweed river. Minor flooding is expected at Chinderah.

River levels at Murwillumbah are expected to remain below minor levels.

Very Heavy rainfall was recorded across the Tweed River overnight Saturday, with some easing observed this morning. River levels along the Tweed River at Uki, Oxley River at Eungella and the Rouse River at Chillingham peaked this morning.

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:35am

What a night eh? Unbelievable rain.

Such a shame long term banks are currently being blown away by a largely unsurfable couple of days of swell. I tend never to get excited by these swells.

Speaking of this ‘event’. If Craig, Ben or other weather gurus here are ever looking for an idea for a future article I’d be fascinated to learn more about these kinds of East Coast ‘troughs’ and surface lows. I don’t understand them very well and what I’m looking for on the chart.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 9:55am

not that much to see.

strong high develops an easterly dip.

look for the trough line....from there it could develop into a surface low.

usually in response to an upper level low tracking from the inland.

It's not unusual.

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:23pm

Thanks mate.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 9:14am

https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/kirra/replays#/2020-12-13/1077768
Healthy set at the start, looks like the bodyboarder snuck in there.

freesurfer1977's picture
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freesurfer1977 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 9:48am

Haha, Gota laugh at all the ......... Out at Noosa on high tide!!! Noosa looked 1 foot yesterday btw!!!

freesurfer1977's picture
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freesurfer1977 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 10:12am

Yeah, and I know Noosa can double in size from point to point!!

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 10:15am

Huge rain totals, mental how things can switch when all the ingredients are there.

freesurfer1977's picture
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freesurfer1977 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 11:48am

The switch just flicked here.It's finally starting to rain and set in , inland from Noosa. The rain gauge should start climbing.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 2:52pm

For the record, yesterday's 24 hour rainfall totals were nowhere the totals seen during ex-TC Debbie in 2017.

"On the southern edge of the catchment boundary at Upper Springbrook, 602mm was recorded in the 24-hours to 9 am, 31 March. At the same gauge recorded 890mm across the whole event".

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/debbie17.shtml

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 2:56pm

wind turning strong nor-east tomorrow and then 15-20 knot nor-east Tuesday.

this is going to be fun.

tomrnoir's picture
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tomrnoir Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 3:32pm

Some sick lines powering from Boiling Pot through to Nationals. Record attendance figures as well.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 3:38pm

how big?

nick.minor's picture
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nick.minor Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 3:59pm

3 foot pot. 4 foot right out back at tee tree. 1pm sunday

richard187's picture
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richard187 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 9:43pm

Boiling pot would go flat for 20 mins then some nice 4 foot bombs out of nowhere. The crowd was the most intense I've ever experienced. Got 4 waves in 4 hours l. 2 were epic, was worth the surf

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:11pm

Meanwhile, the tropical low NW of Fiji still hasn't reached TC status yet, but should do early Monday.

​​​​​​​Oh, and it looks like another tropical cyclone is going to develop south of Samoa. Here's the 10m winds for Tues.

The corresponding synoptics are appropriate too.

linez's picture
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linez Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:28pm

Hahaha

rj-davey's picture
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rj-davey Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:54am

nicely done :)

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:20pm

not really scream worthy because it gets shunted to the SE very, very quickly.

the Samoan system.

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:02pm

And second system has very little cradling in our swell window and then it does as it moves into our swell window.

As suspected a few days ago this one looks to be downgraded so far.

Plasticspastic's picture
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Plasticspastic Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:44pm

For reference from 11-1pm today(sun)
Greenie was 3-4 foot, kirra 4-5 foot with the odd bigger one.. quite surfable , the odd drainer, but the current horrendous....

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:58pm

Very solid and sizey out the front now, fuark. Bombs mush-burgering well past palmy reef on the south side. Crazy to think what tomorrows gonna bring if this swell hasn't peaked yet.

Edit: those outside bombies are throwing some heavy lip now. Crazy scenes. Been watching for the last hour and it's been building very quickly.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 4:53pm

This arvo was unreal fun.

Just about wore a hole in my ball bag from boardie rash though.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 5:28pm

The comparison with Ex Debbie is interesting.

Debbie came with no storm swell, so the banks were largely spared.
the flood was insane but once the ocean settled it was game on for the rest of the Autumn.

Northern NSW will cop the brunt of the bank-busting.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 5:59pm

Are you saying you predict this to be similar to Debbie (ie bank sparing in some spots) ?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:25pm

no, not at all, sadly.

it's bank armageddon here.

it's all a kay out to sea.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 5:44pm

Large, wet and windy -

Every time I read that it reminds me of a girl I used to know.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:18pm

Ha !

I typed that very sentence earlier today but gave up when I couldn’t nail the closing line about coming in a devastating fury and leaving a trail of broken banks behind her ( bank accounts).

Still can’t do it. A try hard comedian running through his failed lines....I think I prefer your version.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:40pm

I was sitting on that for the last day or so and I thought, nah, it's too obvious.

Then I thought if it gets the slightest smirk or even an exasperated eye roll it's done its job.

Tick's picture
Tick's picture
Tick Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:21pm

Pics?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:28pm

Hoping the roof holds tonight. Wasn't easy to sleep last night.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:49pm

Moreton Island was 50kts, gusting 60kts this arvo. Same at DI Point.

Average wind speed at Moreton has been north of 40kts since 8:30am (same that DI though a little delayed).

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 6:53pm

Put on a new roof a few weeks ago and am back to enjoying the sound of rain drumming hard on the tin instead of shitting bricks and waiting for water to start cascading down the internal walls. That actually happened a couple of times .

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:11pm

I spent the morning chasing goats which had escaped the paddock in search of somewhere dry and ended up colonising the neighbours house.

so stoked I updated the gumboots before this kicked off.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:19pm

Hahaha!
Outsmarted by goats again.

Photos?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:25pm

Gather the tribe* and make a very public show of slaughtering one and roasting it to perfection in a camp oven cooked on a fire in the back yard. Be pointed in your enjoyment of the meal as they look on.

That should quieten their rebellious streak. That or they’ll break out enmass to never be seen again. Either way your goat problems are over.

* Collective noun for goats.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:36pm

I had a surf down your way today Blowin. Bit o' fun, novelty-esque. Did you surf down the road aways?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:49pm

Yep. Did you surf the wave which is in the town I’m at or down the road a bit ?

What time were you out there and what board were you riding ? Did Geoff give you the heads up ?

I keep wondering if I’ve met you yet. You didn’t buy a steamer off gumtree when you first moved here did you ?

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:59pm

I had a look further down the road mid morning, it was small on the draining tide. Drove back north and watched for a while in town. It started pulsing as the tide turned. Goofy footer riding a spanking new blue board. Kinda a step up thing so I was a bit overgunned. Didn't buy a steamer off ya.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 8:04pm

That bank in town should get better with more rain but I don’t really surf there much. The locals reckon it gets fun.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 8:15am

Water was already really crook in town, don't think I'll be surfing there after more rain, besides the novelty factor of surfing there has been sated. Might be good down the road today, did you surf the outer section yesterday? Didn't look like much sand on the inside.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:29am

It’s all about that low tide. Inside.

New moon high drowns the bank. 6 feet difference between high and low.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 8:53pm

Fair enough

ccmnc's picture
ccmnc's picture
ccmnc Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 7:58pm

Wrong.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 8:16pm

Very wrong. Was crowded dogshit. Did you get some ?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 13 Dec 2020 at 7:37pm

The Pass is empty atm
some smokers running thru

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 6:12am

Welcome TC Yasa! (last position in second image - JTWC outlook - is Friday night, i.e. only just starting to exit the New Cal swell shadow).
​​​​​​​

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 10:33am

Yasa, would have thought they could have come up with a better Y than that! A little too familiar

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 6:34am

No-one out at Kirra, says it all. Lots of wash-throughs though there's the odd inside peeler between sets (albeit double overhead).



thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 6:42am

Thought this was a set at Currumbin

For reference, same camera, same position, on Saturday.

Then I saw this set.





calk's picture
calk's picture
calk Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 10:51pm

Far out! That’s some serious water moving around in those stills. Thanks for going to the effort of sharing Ben.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 6:45am

Meanwhile, Noosa.

nick.minor's picture
nick.minor's picture
nick.minor Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 6:57am

Super high tide... Feels like it's east north east (wind) at Noosa also.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 7:03am

Can have all the swell in the world but it’s hard to get a gauge of how big it actually is. Most places aren’t really surf spots anymore.

Conditions really have to be sublime for a surfable wave to hit a bank > 8 foot in SE qld / NNSW.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 8:43am

The outside bank at Snapper is exhausting so much swell energy that it's barely a should to head high reform through Greenmount. There was one bloke out earlier, now the lineup is empty.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:04am

Noosa is a lot of this.

And sometimes this.

The size disparity is incredible between the Gold and Sunshine Coast, given the strong E component in the swell direction (obviously, the short range source - most of which lies just south of the Sunny Coast - is having an effect).

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:18am

It's weird, considering the length of fetch through the tasman, sat out there yesterday with 300 friends for an hour, there was NO waves coming through. but checked the cams late afternoon, looked to be really pulsing hard?

philosurphizingkerching's picture
philosurphizingkerching's picture
philosurphizing... Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:21am

Gunna be interesting to see how much rain this dumps on the Northern Rivers today.
https://ibb.co/260RpVt
225 mm since 9am friday at my place.
Tanks full, dams full and most importantly, is what this weather event is doing for the water table.
I have a spring fed creek that flows through my property and it is dependent on the height of the water table.
The middle of October 2020 it stopped flowing and a month later all the water holes were completely dry.
The same thing happened in November 2019 and 2018, prior to this the creek has only ever stopped flowing once, according to my neighbour whos family have lived here since the 1940s.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 9:25am

Please don’t tell me we’re going to have devil shit winds for over a week after this coastal trough fcks off. I was hoping the EC models Sly change for late this weekend was going to be some reprieve but it looks to stall off mid NSW now.

Maybe we won’t see any useful surfing conditions until close to Xmas!!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 10:00am

Lotta whitewater.

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 11:19am

Noosa surf report....9/10.
Surfed a wave granites through to main beach.

Granites is 14.25ft. Double overhead barrels.
Tea tree 3.04yards high,breaking in 2 fathoms of water.
Boiling pot is empty....no-one on it!!
Johnsons is 16 hands or 4 chains high...barrelling A- frames. Swapped boards with a gypsy and high fived a mermaid.
Main beach 45german backpackers. Rode it to the sand and straight to score my $16 mocha chai latte darling.
Ssssssh. Keep it quiet....dont let the blowins know about our secret spot.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 12:48pm

Too late.

I’ve read between the lines and divined that it’s happening. On my way to duck pout selfie the lineup.

#everycntcometonoosa

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 1:58pm

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 2:05pm

What a ZOO.

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 11:20am

Noosa is quite fun this morning on high tide nice 3 foot sets with power....

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 12:44pm

Its all how people view it I guess. 1/2 ful/ v 1/2 empty vs just the wrong size glass for the amount of water being measured. I did the Noosa at 4am today. Went to Granite hoping for juice and saw unsurfable wash throughs breaking about 200m off the rock..no one out. Gale like SE to ESE wind. TTree was similar but not as bad. Still a long way from classic Noosa and avo at best. Uno's was not breaking no bank high tide. Boiling pot into Nationals had the best of the bunch but I was so overgunned I should have had my 5'10 twinny not my AB Channel Bottom. Crowd was crazy for what it is. I got 3 waves in an hour but was out of the water by 530am. Its classic internet overhype/no where else to surf. I got sucked into both. Cant compare it to my solo surf last week with no one out perfect little A frames from that sneaky little east swell that caught most unawares and came in under under the radar.

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 2:44pm

yeah I did the early morning check and couldn't convince myself to jump in at BP after running round to Tea Tree. Just did the midday surf at BP and into Nationals....the crowd was terrible. Wind has dropped right back and its lining up ok, but that crowd is ridiculous. I don't know why I punish myself and surf the points when they're the only place handling the wind and swell.

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 3:17pm

Yep, side note. Has anyone bothered telling the ladies surfing out there that someone's obviously been stealing the asses out of their trousers. Im sure they pay good money for their togs but they seem to be missing the lower rear 1/2 of them. And its not a 1 off. Looks like they are all getting ripped??

mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 3:33pm

Can I respectfully suggest that you try telling them yourself... And hopefully some that give you a serve.

Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 4:15pm

I surfed the beachy in the pocket at Alex and was actually surprisingly fun...decent size to it, not too many on it, and good shape on the reforms.

I reckon going to Noosa is a trap in these kinda swells, always will prefer surfing worse waves elsewhere on the coast with less crew on it. Sometimes can even get fun carties with only a handful of people on it in the bigger days

Hellow's picture
Hellow's picture
Hellow Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 7:43pm

"Talk To Me, Goose."

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 2:21pm

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 2:29pm

Couple of sneaky little buggers getting through that unridden.
Stealth

monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 3:22pm

MTB trails were all time today at Noosa; no one out :)

Suckers.

Daniel neale's picture
Daniel neale's picture
Daniel neale Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 7:11pm

Good call monkey!

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 3:55pm

Water is turbid asf. Going to give it a miss for a few days. All I want fro Xmas is some head-high groundswell with light offshore winds. Too much to ask, Huey?

stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_ Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 7:02pm

got one of the waves of my life today at cooly. got tubed 4 times on my first wave. did 3 more laps and didnt even get close to getting tubed again. yesterday i broke 2 boards and didnt get a single wave.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 7:10pm

Nice one Steve!

I spose that's a great example of 'ya put in the hard yards eventually you get rewarded.'

_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_ Monday, 14 Dec 2020 at 8:12pm

Agree, awesome effort Steve! Despite a couple of broken boards...