One interesting south swell, before an onslaught from the east
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th December)
Best Days: Thurs: fun S'ly swell in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Sat onwards: solid run of E'ly swells, though windy at times.
Recap: Freshening northerlies ruined surf conditions at most spots over the weekend though there were pockets of lighter N/NW winds that offered windows of workable conditions. A small southerly swell across south facing beaches was overtaken by building N/NE windswells into the 3ft range, which persistent today from the southern Gold Coast down to the Northern Rivers, though was smaller elsewhere. Winds became light and variable across many coasts under the influence of a broad coastal trough, though some locations (i.e. Byron, Sunny Coast) have seen gusty northerlies at times. Interestingly, the Sunny Coast picked up almost 40mm of rain from a late Monday afternoon t’storm that saw winds swing from a gusty N/NE to the NW, W, SW and then gale force S/SW, within about 20 minutes. It's since gone back around the compass a couple of times. Impressive!
D'Bah picking up the N/NE swell today
Lumpy afternoon at Snapper Rocks
This week (Dec 8 - 11)
Now, I know you’re only here to read my thoughts on next week’s possible cyclone swell. But, there’s a whole lot of interesting stuff to talk about prior to then. So, let’s get to it!
First up: the source for today’s (and indeed yesterday’s) local N/NE swell is still active in the western Coral Sea though the fetch is rotating counter clockwise, which is slightly out of alignment for our swell window. This will slowly diminish N’ly windswell across the region though exposed southern ends of the Gold and Tweed Coast should see a few sneaky 2ft sets through the morning, before size abates through the day. Don’t expect much size elsewhere.
Winds will veer W’ly as a trough crosses the region, before swinging to the south at strength through the day. This will impact the Mid North Coast early (into Port Mac before dawn, Coffs mid-morning), before nosing into Byron around noon and the Gold Coast early afternoon. Its arrival on the Sunny Coast may be delayed until late afternoon.
Strong southerly winds in its wake will generate a short lived, peaky swell for very late Tuesday (Mid North Coast) and Wednesday (remaining Northern NSW coasts). South facing beaches should reach a bumpy 3-4ft though conditions will try to improve on Wednesday as easing S’ly winds veer SW here and there, under a weak ridge of high pressure.
SE Qld will enjoy these winds but there won’t be much size on offer, just a slow mix of weak swells in the 1-2ft range tops at outer points (Wednesday), bigger but wind affected at exposed northern ends thanks to a mainly S’ly tending SE breeze.
Overnight on Wednesday, the leading edge of a new longer period S’ly swell will push across the Mid North Coast, and it’s expected to provide a fun day of waves across Northern NSW on Thursday with light variable morning winds ahead of afternoon NE sea breezes.
The source of this swell is a much stronger fetch of S/SW winds around the primary low to Tuesday's S'ly change, well south of Tasmania today (see below).
This energy is already in the water and moving through our swell window, but will arrive behind the Tues/Wed short range energy because of the much larger travel distance. However it will be worth the wait - south facing beaches south of Byron should see inconsistent 3-4ft sets, though it’ll be smaller elsewhere. This swell won’t be great for SE Qld but exposed northern ends may see stray 2ft+ sets and there’ll be slow, infrequent runner on the outer points around 1-1.5ft. Expect long breaks between waves.
(note: the models aren’t picking up this swell very well, expecting just 2ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. So, let’s watch this space).
A new trough will push up the Southern NSW coast on Thursday, arriving across the Mid North Coast overnight and then enveloping remaining coasts during Friday. So, we’ll start off with light winds but all coasts are expected to see fresh E/SE breezes by the end of the day (later in SE Qld than in Northern NSW).
At this stage, any increase in new swell on Friday will be locally generated (Thursday’s S’ly swell is expected to ease steadily through Fri AM) so it’s not worth getting too excited about. But there should be a pocket of early options at exposed beaches south of the border.
This weekend (Dec 12 - 13)
The weekend will herald the start of an extended period of strong swell and wind activity across the East Coast.
Just as a quick aside, there will be one other long range source in the mix: another series of strong fronts below Tasmania on Thurs/Fri will generate small sideband south swell for Northern NSW. No major size is expected but we’ll see 2-3ft sets in the mix south from Byron, later Saturday and into Sunday.
Over the weekend, a building ridge of high pressure across Tasmanian latitudes and a broad coastal trough to the north will squeeze an easterly fetch across the northern half of the Tasman Sea. Local conditions will be very wind affected with gusty SE thru’ ESE breezes, in fact we’re looking at a continuation of this pattern through the first half of next week too.
In addition to at least 4-5ft of short range swell from the ridge, this region may become supercharged from tropical developments to our north, enhancing the strength of the fetch and bumping up size another couple of feet into the 6ft+ range. However, whilst the models are not in close agreement on the specifics (geographical position, and timing), they are in agreement on the broadscale pattern, plus and the likely development of a significant tropical feature (trough, low or cyclone). I'm just not sure when the peak size will kick in, so we need some elasticity on that right now.
Because of the reasonably high confidence in local winds, it’s looking like a points-only swell event so size will be somewhat irrelevant as there will only be a limited number of options to surf anyway. Current expectations are for size around the 3-5ft mark on Saturday and up to 6ft+ or more on Sunday.
I’ll refine the specifics on Wednesday.
Next week (Dec 14 onwards)
The main feature on the long term charts is a stationary ridge through the northern Tasman Sea - supplying a bare minimum of 4-5ft E/NE swell for most of next week, and a potentially significant tropical cyclone, developing north of Fiji around Friday, moving south over the weekend and probably entering our swell window around Monday (see below).
As such, confidence is high for a large, possibly very large E’ly swell across our region next week, though I’m just not sure whether it’ll occur later this weekend, or during the first half of next week. And, local winds are currently unclear too. But I’ll have more on that in Wednesday’s update.
See you then!
Comments
Funny thing about the upcoming pattern: I'm more focused on nailing the mid-week south swell, than next week's big east swell. Although the synoptics look loopy (and yeah, this tropical activity will be fantastic to monitor), it's the flukey swells that can easily pass by unnoticed during these patterns - and sometimes produce the best waves.
Looks like a very intense onion there!
You mean this weeks south swell Ben ?
Currently trying to decide whether to go to work on weds or thurs, whattaya reckon ? (im around ballina)
Gonna need to do some daily paddling to get the fitness back before next week, arms a piss weak.
That's a frightening looking storm developing there, very nervous times for south pac islanders
With such a mass of different weather model variations, it will be interesting to see which of these early forecasts get that tropical disturbance right. Seems like a lot of variables and not a lot of decisiveness just yet - which is usual, and especially so for start of season. Talk amongst a lot of respected ocean weather people that I come across, is that the European models (surprisingly) are the most accurate for SW Pacific and Coral Sea cyclones. Last I saw ECMFW had the low far less intense and tracking SW towards the SE Qld and northern NSW coast. Other models show a far more intense cyclone, as shown here, but staying out much wider. I imagine they will continue to change as they update. I haven't looked at the steering forecasts for the different atmospheric levels yet, but as such I am assuming the different weather models are reflecting that the lower level steering winds will be pushing SW, and the upper level steering winds, which would more significantly be affecting a stronger cyclonic system reaching higher up into the atmosphere, won't be doing that? An earlier explanation of upper level cyclonic steering patterns that I came across showed basically a December push away from the coast, but a January to April track running more SW towards the Qld coast, with a couple of those months - I forget which - curving more S as you come closer to the coast around the SE Qld region. Seems pretty consistent with what you would expect as a general tracking pattern from past experience as well. That was of course just a base analysis, discounting the local variations thst would be also affecting at the time. Of note is the strength of that high pressure underneath. Some forecasts show 1033 to 1035hp, which is heavy for this time of year. Normally that alone, compounding whatever tradewind flow you have at the time, would set up a strong wind warning along the entire central and northern Qld coast through to PNG. That entire windbelt will be compressed in an area less than half the size. Plus of course, you then have whatever the tropical low adds to that already predetermined onshore wind flow equation. Various forecasts are already showing some gale force winds (above 33 knots) not far offshore off the SE Qld and northern NSW coast by early next week. As we learned from looking at swell records and synoptics decades ago, the majority of SE Qld swell in those scenarios is from the high pressure system 'squeeze', under the tropical lows and cyclones as opposed to simply the cyclone winds themselves, which usually have much more limited fetch. Those 'high pressure squeezes' under coral sea troughs or depressions or lows or EC lows or cyclones, are horrific to get caught out in in a boat, even in a supposedly protected anchorage. Done that a few times in the early days. To this day I still don't trust the met bureau for an accurate fòrecast at sea. Keeping a close eye on those higher sea surface temperature anomalies in the Coral Sea and Tasman Sea as well. Adds a potentially whole other ingredient into the mix.
excellent analysis.
Still a few wobbly waves at Snapper early morning. Not much elsewhere though. Didn't see anything really rideable on the Tweed.
Wow, Snapper looks twice the size of what I surfed this morning. Wonder why that is?
it faces northish. (north swell magnet?) thats also why it doesn't pick up south swells
I reckon that high angle makes it look bigger
Gee latest EC model has that TC out near Vanuatu/Fiji next week almost stationary for 2-3 days. GFS has it parked there for like a god man eternity!!!!
Crowdy wave buoy also gone afloat looking at it's multispectral plot!!!! :)
Some fun little runners this morning on the inside bank where I was. Just need that bloody water to warm up and cornflake weed fck off.
Interesting long range EC prognosis with regards to that TC
It's funny, pretty much all these south pulses over the last month have come in a bit hot and under-subscribed as far as crowds.
today is unders , weak and inconsistent with no line in it and outrageously crowded.
wtf?
I found there was def two swells in the water this morning. A weak, peaky locally generated windswell which appeared to have the bigger wave faces but after taking off on them they just washed out to nothing. Of greater fun was the appeared smaller, but longer period, better lined mid range swell, which when they hit the inside bank I was surfing, lined up perfectly.
The key was not to sit out the back with the rest of the monkeys trying to catch the apparent larger waves, but sit inside and chase those longer period better lined swells.
Interestingly, only short/mid range swells are/were expected today. The new S'ly groundswell is pegged for tomorrow (of which the Sydney buoys have picked it up - arrived around 8-9am, Tp 13.8 seconds). Reports of good 4ft sets at south swell magnets.
It wasn't groundswell today. Just two different period swells. Something around 6-7 sec and 10-11 sec.
Yep, all good. How big?
2ft. But I wasn’t at a south swell magnet.
yep.
really died in the arse through the arvo.