South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th September)

Best Days: Sat: easing S/SE swell in Northern NSW, with early light winds. Sun: small building E'ly swell with light winds in SE Qld / Far Nthn NSW. Mon onwards: building E'ly swell, biggest Wed, easing later Thurs onwards. General light variable/onshore winds in SE Qld / Far Nthn NSW. N'ly affected at times on the Mid North Coast (but maybe not as much Tues/Wed).

Recap: Northerly winds created issues across many locations on Thursday, which was a shame given the 5-6ft+ S/SE groundswell that pushed across Northern NSW. Early morning saw a brief window of lighter NW winds in some locations, and surf size was much smaller in SE Qld, building from 1-2ft to 2-3ft (a write-off with local conditions). Conditions improved quickly this morning with a local trough creating light NW winds, ahead of a return S’ly change pushing up the coast, reaching Byron at 9am though petering out across the Gold Coast. Winds went SE in Northern NSW throughout the day and then E/SE across SE Qld. Surf size eased from 3-5ft to 3ft in Northern NSW, with much smaller surf in SE Qld. 

Leftover S/SE swell in Coffs Harbour Friday morning with an early S'ly change pushing through

This weekend (Oct 3 -4)

Easing swells and abating winds are expected on Saturday. 

There won’t be much size around, maybe some rare 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets south from Ballina, becoming smaller through the day, plus a minor short range SE swell (from the fetch trailing today’s change) and general background energy across remaining beaches (read: much of SE Qld).

As for winds on Saturday, SE Qld is at risk of a moderate SE breeze through the morning (early S’ly on the Sunshine Coast), and the Mid North Coast is at risk of an afternoon N/NE breeze. South from Byron through to Coffs should be lucky enough to enjoy relatively light winds all day, and the Mid North Coast should be clean early with light winds too. 

Keep your expectations low though. It's not a high priority surf day.

Saturday afternoon's northerly flow will persist across the Mid North Coast into Sunday morning, but we’ll see light winds across Far Northern NSW and most of SE Qld until the afternoon sea breeze kicks in from the NE. As for surf, with the S/SE swell all but gone by this time, we’ll be relying on a new source of E’ly swell, originating from a a building ridge through the Coral Sea on Saturday. 

Wave heights will be largest in the north (i.e. Sunshine Coast), building from an initially slow, lacklustre 2-3ft to a better 3-4ft throughout the afternoon, but expect smaller size as you head south from the Gold Coast. It won’t be amazing but there’ll be peaky options at the open beaches. 

Next week (Oct 5 onwards)

Our impending E’ly grounswell is still looking very promising. 

It’ll be sourced from a deep trough expected to form south of Fiji over the weekend. A supporting ridge to the south will enhance a broad easterly fetch through the north-eastern Tasman Sea, stretching out into the Coral Sea, and this will generate a sustained groundswell for the entire East Coast.

Monday will generally see persistent trade swell, about the same as Sunday afternoon's rise. The first noticeable kick in new energy will show on Tuesday morning, not so much in size but in strength. Most open beaches should pick up 3-4ft sets, before reaching 4-6ft into the afternoon, and then holding 6ft+ through Wednesday, before easing slowly from Thursday onwards. It'll be smaller along the points and across protected locations.

Conditions look generally pretty good throughout this time frame. A weak ridge across the coast will affect the Mid North Coast with northerly winds, though they’ll be strongest Monday (when the swell is relatively small) and then Thursday and Friday. During the middle of this period - on Tues/Wed - we should see a period of lighter, possibly variable winds at times. 

As for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, the broader airstream will remain onshore but it’ll be light and variable each morning so the wave faces will be clean, slightly lumpy if anything, and the afternoon breezes shouldn’t become too strong. Your main problem for this event will be finding somewhere holding the size, as the swell will overpower the open beaches at its peak.

In addition to this east swell, a strong series of unfavourably aligned fronts under Tasmania Sun/Mon onwards will generate a nice undercurrent of S’ly swell for Northern NSW, building later Wednesday and peaking Thursday with peaky 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. 

Of course, the east swell will be your primary focus but there will be a wide range of options elsewhere, if you’re working around local funky winds. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!