South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 31st August)

Best Days: No great days overall. Best option is probably Wed AM for a small peaky combo at open beaches with a brief window of light winds. 

Recap: A strong south swell pushed up the coast on Saturday though it delivered a wide range in wave heights. Surf size reached 4-6ft south of Byron, though wave heights were much smaller to the north peaking around 4ft across the Tweed Coast and 2-3ft across the Gold Coast’s south swell magnets (smaller again at the outer points). The Sunny Coast was a little smaller again. Moderate to fresh S’ly winds in the north favoured protected spots, though winds were lighter on the Mid North Coast. Wave heights eased slowly through Sunday and early light winds preceded an afternoon sea breeze. Today has seen a small flush of new S’ly swell across Northern NSW though no bigger than 2ft+ at south swell magnets, and much smaller across SE Qld with a minor short range E/SE swell in the mix.  

Early Monday peaks at D'Bah

Small mix of peaky swells on the Sunny Coast this AM

This week (Sep 3 - 6)

A cold front pushed across Southern NSW today, and a decent south swell is trailing behind. This swell is expected to reach Northern NSW throughout Tuesday, building across the Mid North Coast during the morning and peaking the afternoon. This swell will arrive a little later in Far Northern NSW so expect a delay on the upwards trend in the morning. SE Qld won’t enjoy the swell direction very much at all so I’m not expecting a great deal of action north of the border. 

The main issue on Tuesday is that winds will tend fresh S/SE through the morning, in response to a small trough pushing along the coastal margin, strengthened by a ridge to the south. These winds won’t favour exposed beaches, however they’ll be the only ones picking up any appreciable size - reaching 3-4ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, and 2ft+ across the Gold Coast's south facing beaches and exposed northern ends (arriving late in the day, much smaller for the most part). Most GC beaches and much of the SC will be smaller again.

Locations north from the Gold Coast should see a small window of light morning winds before the change hits (it's expected to cross the border a few hours before sunrise) and the Mid North Coast should see a rapid easing through the day, so lumpy though improving conditions are likely south of Yamba throughout the day, as the swell peaks. But on the whole it looks pretty ordinary, especially in SE Qld. 

Wednesday morning should see small peaky waves across SE Qld beaches, comprising easing energy from the south plus some short range energy from a brief E’ly fetch developing offshore, but I don’t think it’ll amount to much more than a slow 2ft at exposed beaches. Early light winds will preceded freshening N/NE breezes from lunchtime onwards. 

South from Byron, south facing beaches should see early 2-3ft sets on Wednesday but it’ll become smaller during the day. Winds will freshen from the north and become gusty into the afternoon, though they’ll be light for the first few hours of the day. 

Advancing fronts through the Bight will maintain a fresh northerly synoptic flow through Thursday and Friday, strongest on the Mid North Coast and a little lighter in SE Qld, but overall quite detrimental to surf prospects. 

A combination of persistent mid-range S/SE swells (from poorly aligned though strong fronts passing well south of the Tasman Sea, plus a brief stalling of today's front near NZ tomorrow), E’ly swell (from a building ridge in the lower Coral Sea) and local N/NE windswell will maintain peaky 2ft+ sets across most open beaches in Northern NSW through this time frame, fractionally smaller in SE Qld. However, only sheltered northern corners south from Byron will have anything remotely surfable, everywhere else will be largely blown out.

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

The weekend outlook is a bit tricky right now. 

SE Qld should see some small persistent E’ly swell both days but the northerly risk is too high to currently get excited about. Open beaches are looking at about 2ft+ or so, there’s a chance Sunday will see lighter winds but for now I’d keep your expectations in check.

Northern NSW is likely to be quite northerly-wind affected on Saturday but the models are divergent regarding the developing atmospheric setup; the European solution is suggesting troughiness over the western Tasman Sea on Friday may evolve into a small closed low on Saturday, generating a short range SE swell across Northern NSW on Sunday. It’s a low confidence event right now (and would be accompanied with generally poor winds) but in the absence of any other swells, it’s worth keeping a close eye on.

Otherwise, residual energy will probably maintain slow 2ft waves at exposed beaches both days. That’s certainly not worth getting too excited about. 

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

Nothing significant standing out in the long term charts right now. However, in addition to the usual mid-latitude frontal cycle there’s also a suggestion that a broader easterly fetch may develop south of Fiji this weekend, which may set up some slow developments in our eastern swell window. Something to see a watch on too.

See you Wednesday!