South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 21st August)

Best Days: Sat: maybe some small leftover S'ly swell early in Nthn NSW. Tiny otherwise. Don't hold yr breath. Sun: chance for a flukey S'ly swell, prob a'noon if at all (don't hold yr breath). Mon/Tues: solid S'ly swell in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld, good conditions. Easing Wed.

Recap: Inconsistent 1-2ft E’ly swells padded out SE Qld beaches on Thursday, easing a little into today, and it’s been smaller in size south from Byron. However, Northern NSW’s south swell magnets picked up a new S’ly swell today that’s punched higher than expected with 3ft sets (against a forecast of 2ft). Conditions have been generally clean across the open beaches with mainly W’ly winds. 

Nice Friday S'ly lines at Coffs

Coupla lil' waves at D'Bah

This weekend (Aug 22 - 23)

Windy conditions are expected both days this weekend.

Today’s southerly swell is already easing across Southern NSW, so this trend will kick in across Northern NSW overnight and we’ll see much smaller conditions into Saturday. South swell magnets south of Byron may see a few stray 2ft sets early on, but expect a drop to around 1ft through the day. 

Elsewhere, expect very small residual E’ly swell to provide just-rideable waves (for the grommets) across exposed beaches.

Sunday looks interesting. Ultimately, it’s likely to remain tiny at most beaches, but the synoptic setup does have potential for an unusual spread of south swell to push up the coast. 

Gale force westerly winds pushing off the NSW coast on Saturday may just be sustained and broad enough to allow a small flush of south swell to bend back into south swell magnets of Far Northern NSW and some SE Qld beaches. Assisting this setup is a slight W/SW kink in the fetch early Sunday. 

It’s a low confidence event, but we can’t rule out something happening, as similar fetches have produced fun waves in the last. As for a ballpark size range, expected tiny to flat conditions at most beaches, 1-2ft at some south facing beaches, and maybe the odd 2-3ft rare bomb at one or two swell magnets. And, this is all likely to happen more in the afternoon than the morning. Also, such swells usually hit more from a SE direction thanks to the way they spread back, so this means a more closely spaced arrival time across the region.

Next week (Aug 24 onwards)

There’s been a slightly weakening of the upcoming Tasman Low, so I’ve dropped the estimated peak to about 6ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron, with much smaller surf elsewhere. Size will continue to trend up through Monday so expect smaller waves in the morning, ahead of a peak late afternoon (mainly Mid North Coast, could be a delay in Far Northern NSW), holding into Tuesday morning before easing through the afternoon.

Across SE Qld, the peak in size is much more likely on Tuesday, though Monday should see a small increase through the day. However, the acute southerly direction won’t do us many favours. Early morning should see 1ft waves at most beaches and 2-3ft sets at south facing spots, the afternoon increase should be up by a foot or two but Tuesday looks like a better bet with 2-3ft waves at the outer Gold Coast points, and 4ft+ sets at south swell magnets and exposed northern ends. Overall, expect a little less size on the Sunny Coast.

Conditions look pretty good throughout this period. A weak front may skirt the Northern NSW coast on Wednesday bringing moderate southerly winds to most locations, otherwise we’re looking at early offshore breezes elsewhere and light to moderate afternoon sea breezes. 

For what its worth, Tuesday looks to be the pick of the entire forecast period so if you’ve got some flexibility, it’ll be worth pencilling this day into the diary.

The long term outlook has a modest though poorly aligned front through the lower Tasman Sea on Wednesday that’ll set up a nondescript S’ly pulse for the end of the week, so prior to this expect easing swells through Wednesday with similarly clean conditions under a light variable wind regime. The same conditions are expected Thursday and Friday though there won’t be much surf around, away from the south swell magnets. 

Long term outlook has another significant frontal progression across Tasmania around Friday, through next weekend and even into the start of next week - yes, four days of sustained activity - but current model gduiance suggests a strong zonal pattern (west-east) and therefore a poor alignment within our swell window. In short, not a lot of size potential.

Of course, things could change between now and then but right now there’s not a lot to work around long term, so it’ll be well worth capitalising on early next week’s south swell.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!