Oversized to large surf continuing into the weekend
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 15th July)
Best Days: Protected spots experienced surfers Thursday and Friday, Saturday, Sunday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday morning
Recap
Clean and fun levels of inconsistent S/SE groundswell to 2-3ft across the NSW region yesterday morning, tiny on the Gold Coast, while into the afternoon a strong northward surge of building S'ly swell was seen along with strengthening wind.
This swell has filled in proper this morning across the NSW region with some reports of size being the biggest they've seen for a long time south of the border. It's mostly around 10ft or so with bigger waves on the outer bomboras, while the swell was 3-4ft or so on the Gold Coast magnets early, though they're now 6ft+ and the points are 4ft or so. Westerly winds are favouring the beaches though they'll ease and tend more SW into this afternoon.
The Sunny Coast has climbed steadily in size but the swell is super straight so you need a good bank or exposed point that rakes in the swell energy. Sets are now pushing 4-5ft.
We should see the swell peaking through the day across all locations as winds hold out of the W/SW on the Sunny Coast and swinging S/SW across the Mid North Coast, more S'ly-S/SE around Yamba and Byron.
Yamba maxing this morning
Good size on the Sunny Coast
Burleigh well overhead
This week and weekend (Jul 16 - 19)
The largest and most powerful of the swell should be peaking today, owing to the surge of severe-gale to storm-force S/SE winds around the western flank the 'bombing low' up towards us yesterday.
In saying that we're still seeing a significant and broad fetch of S/SE-SE gales aimed through our southern swell window, weakening slowly into this afternoon.
With this there's no change to the expected size tomorrow, with exposed locations and magnets south of the border in NSW coming in at 8-10ft, while the Sunny Coast will likely back off to 3-5ft on the magnets, 6ft+ across the Gold Coast magnets and 3-5ft or so on the outside points.
Friday should ease a bit further from the 8ft range across NSW, smaller across the Gold Coast and Sunny Coasts and down a touch more from Thursday.
Late in the day across the lower Mid North Coast (MNC) but more so Saturday for the remainder of the regions, a new SE groundswell should be seen.
The source of this will be an intensification of E'ly gales off New Zealand's North Island as the low broadens today, with the fetch extending well into the Tasman and remaining there until Friday morning, breaking down slowly thereafter. Following this as the low continues to weaken we'll still see strong E/SE-SE winds in the Tasman through Saturday, finally breaking completely down Sunday and this will keep all regions more than active into early next week.
Sets to 6-8ft are still expected across the NSW coast Saturday morning, possibly with even the odd bigger one on the lower MNC magnets, with the Gold Coast coming in at 4-6ft across the south magnets, 3-5ft on the outer points. The Sunny Coast should see fun 3-4ft sets on the swell magnets, smaller in more protected breaks.
A drop in size is then due into the afternoon, easing further Sunday though still 5-6ft across NSW in the morning, smaller to the north and then down further Monday.
Now, coming back to the local winds and tomorrow, the MNC will see fresh and gusty W/SW winds, tending S/SW-S into the afternoon. To the north straighter and weaker W-W/SW winds are due in the morning, tending S/SE around Yamba north and variable on the Goldy.
Friday looks to see SW winds across most locations (W/SW for periods in pockets) and gusty S'ly into the afternoon.
Similar winds are due on Saturday with fresh SW tending S/SE breezes, with early pockets of W/SW breezes and then Sunday will see winds swing around to the W/NW-NW ahead of NE sea breezes.
As the swell eases further Monday exposed beaches should remain clean and fun with a W/SW offshore, swinging SE into the afternoon.
Longer term there's a few different possibilities on the cards regarding swell generation but the models still diverge and we'll reassess the charts on Friday.
Comments
A day that could have been on the southern Goldie, devil winds all morning going NNE this arvo. Extreme sweep and backwash on the Superbank sadly and not much more than 3 foot on the sets other than Snapper which was solid. Lets hope the wind clocks around a bit more south over the next few days.
Yeeeew
Yeeeeew
..
Well that was an underwhelming video!!
Fuck off kook.
(conrico)
Only visuals I have seen so far of this event from my SW bunker...
Looks just fine to me.
Those big holes in the bank are just killing it this morning, pretty disappointing.
This is more like it
Well that was entertaining :)
That clip gives a much more realistic perspective than still photos capturing a split second of what could be mistaken for something better than it is.
Just a dirty big slabbing (mostly) closeout with a very low % make rate. Good work by those blokes having a full on dig though and no doubt it would be better if the open ocean was more organised with better wind conditions.
Oh man.. that's down right heavy... good shit.
Lucky buggers..
Half the size today, or less.
yesterday was 6-8ft with maybe a couple rogue ten. footers.
today is 4-5ft with an odd 6fter.
I'd say 2/3rds the size Steve with that maths ;)
haha
I think the energy scale is logarithmic, not linear.
Snapper 8:33am replay about 6:15 in @ 8:40am, rogue set, booger got a nice one.
Boogers getting all 3 of the set waves at Snapper and no drop-ins?
Shhhh - don't raise the sleeping white elephant
4ft with very incon 6ft sets.
super duper crazy crowded.
Its next level now hey? I remember even 10 years ago you could shoot down. There'd be around 20 out, even on a fairly reasonable day and you could casually get your waves as a respectful blow in. Place is insane now. Can see how locals are starting to flex. How's it going to be with all those new developments, I shudder to think.
Blame Conrico!
Lennox was flying under the radar until he posted that clip.
not even the sightseers can get near it now.
Hahaha
Where is the land called Lennox that you wax lyrically about
So Cabarita regularly repaints their point with 'LOCALS ONLY' sign and you guys have now managed to put 2 cameras on that beach. Don't know how you do it?
3 at Currumbin now. Wow.
'Locals Only'......faaaark.....gimmee a spell.
Same crew were probably arriving by the car load at Lennox today.
Yeah, just rediculous. South Palmy cam is right next door, so you could say 4 cams in that tiny area. I wonder how it would go down to have cams all over the Tweed coast..... reckon the locals would be happy? I've been a supporter of Swellnet for a fair while, but I can't help noticing the tentacles are spreading too far for my liking simply to make a buck. The Currumbin cams finally pushed it too far. Have a think about it guys..
Surfline have over 500 cameras and a gazillion dollars, they bought Magic Sea Weed a few years ago and expanded the European network of cameras, and they bought Coastalwatch last year. Do you understand where this is going?
Yep.
Yeah I don't get it. It would appear cams turn up where it seems SN can get away with it. Not seeing cams on South Coast NSW. They couldn't get away with Lennox. I love this site but think the spread of cams is too much.
Do you think an American company is really going to care about the feelings of Lennox locals???
American business ethics are ruthless, they didnt buy Coastalwatch to spin the wheels. There'll be a camera there within five years and locals wont have a say in it because they wont know where it is. Ditto 500 breaks around Australia.
not hard to work out where a camera is.
And even American companies have to play by Australian legal rules, not to mention have some sort of social licence.
Communities have more power than they think.
FUCK YEAH!!!
ABORIGINAL TRADITIONAL OWNERS WILL ALWAYS HAVE PRIORITY!
ALL THE REST ARE FUCKIN BLOW-INS
Disappointing down here today...winds have killed it.
Supa fun on the tweed coast this morning, beachies were good early - the ski helped alot getting to the right spot for the straighness to it.. not a soul to share it with.... definitely heaps smaller than wed (which was also good on the beachies )...
Lennox was yuck as after lunch, loads of agro assholes dropping in/paddling inside. I didn't have it in me to do either of those things and as such didnt really get any good ones. Be nice when size drops back and other spots are surfable.
A while ago I saw a local teen go psycho because he felt he should've had his 25th wave and sprint paddled back down the point to where non-local was going to finish his well deserved wave to get stuck in. I didn't see the end result but I was amazed that even the young bucks are that disgruntled and happy to gob off as though they were 40 year vets. Vibe at the place does not feel good at times.
Yeh it's cooked aye, last time I was put there was a guy screaming at everyone and swearing, ruins it.
Youngsters today were no shame paddling inside constantly, I had 3 of them repeatedly appear on my inside, little assholes
Credible reports of over 200 people in the water at Lennox.
Locals who have been here for decades saying that they've never seen so many cars.
anyone recall how many out at the point on that mothers day in the mid 90's.......I can still remember getting a few on a totally under gunned 6'3" handley ......aaaah those were the days when I could actually paddle !!!!...I may not recall well....but I reckon maybe 30 to 50 Max
my mate wrote a ballad about that swell.
the worst snaking/paddling up the inside, general cluelessness by far I saw over the last couple of days did not come from locals but from goldy crew/eurokooks/brazzos etc etc trying to bring a super bank vibe to the water.
Hey FR. Can you please humor me?
I was up at Broken during a swell and surfed Big Len, it was only a day - https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2015/07/15/mystery-swell...
You seem to be able to recall most swells, would a rating out of 10! Bonus points for a comparison swell score!!
Yours Truly, d
sorry mate, that was a Thursday....I caught a big jew the night before and it seemed like a bog standard winter S swell according to my notes.
Fark. I thought it was pumping. It was probs 3-5 but excellent shape. Multiple shacks per wave, nice and consistent. I would of given it a 9 but I’m feeling perhaps it’s 4 in your books haha. Cheers for the reply. Helps my imagination a bit when i read through the comments!
200 in the water sounds like a typical school holiday weekend at “the worst best wave” in NSW.
Yep!
The collective WE ned to have a big yarn about localism in this country, particularly in our surfing communities.
Localism, white localism, is a bastion of racism. It role models to our young one: 'the other', and particularly, 'supremacy over the other'.
It role models, actually it celebrates and models to our young ones the supremacy of hierarchy based on a species of localism that is based on a racist lie.
And you bunch of racist motherfuckers can't even see how racist you are.
Who the fuck is calling localism and 'blow-in-ism' without reconciling the fact that everything you white cunts own are proceeds of war crimes committed against the local Aboriginal Traditional Owners whose lands you live, work and surf. That land and sea country is stolen.
These crimes are on-going.
My people are the most incarcerated people in the world.
And you motherfucker who are calling localism/blowin-ism are a bunch of ill-considered racist benefactors of horrific war crimes.
In 2020, you're a bunch of FUCKWITS!!!!
ALWAYS WAS, ALWAYS WILL BE [-O-]
Hey Jack. Go get some anger management advice and look in the mirror if you're gunna start branding all 'white' people as racist cunts.
No human group 'owns' any of this planet nor are they 'custodians'. Everyone's just passing through.
A bit like fleas arguing over who owns the dog.
Can’t disagree with you JackStance. At the very least I can’t see how anyone can claim ownership, but if anyone can, it’s certainly no one from recent history. How’s this quote from Burleigh Boardriders homepage: ‘Burleigh Boardriders are custodians of Burleigh point’. How do you even get into a collective headspace to make such a claim? Gimme a fuckin break
I must say it shits me when I’m alone on a bank and someone turns up. It’s an immediate and instinctive response, because you just don’t know what their behaviour will be and how it will affect my (and their) enjoyment of the sesh. But if they’re not a tool, it actually turns out for the better.
Localism is used as a screen to have ‘order’ for everyone in the lineup, when really it’s only for the benefit of the few. There should be order, but that is a responsibility held by all participants and should only be enforced by the whole group, for the benefit of the whole group
Whingenet
No overseas travel = more crowds at home.
Fuck the ridiculous number of cams off. Bring back the days of being able to read a weather map and not relying on Insta everything.
I fully agree with that comment, years ago before the charts were made to the public (pre internet days ) you had to go and search for the best waves yourself.
"Localism is used as a screen to have ‘order’ for everyone in the lineup, when really it’s only for the benefit of the few. There should be order, but that is a responsibility held by all participants and should only be enforced by the whole group, for the benefit of the whole group"
It never works like that though. Never has, never will.
When there are too many clueless participants on basic etiquette chaos is the result.
Chaos is far worse than a localised order. No one benefits, everyone suffers. A dangerous shitfight for all.
If I go to Pipe, Padang, Mundaka, Burleigh etc etc I know there will be some localised order. Caveat Emptor.
I don't see anything racist in that.
But I do take Jack Stance's point even though I see local bundjalung fellas regulating here.
Disagree FR. I’ve turned up to breaks in places like the Ments where nobody was local, but the place was packed. On one hand there has been times that it was chaos, but on other occasions everybody became familiar with each other, gave an acknowledgement of each other, and came to an understanding about how to behave. And everyone benefited. Not just the wankers parading around and taking more than their share.
I’ve had the same experience on the Goldy. Less angst when protagonists aren’t doing their thing. No more or less drop ins than any other day.
It’s possible...
And let’s be honest. If a ‘blow-in’ gets burned by another ‘blow-in’, will any of the ‘locals’ do anything about it? Certainly not. So are they really enforcing general order?
There’s zero altruism, so it shouldn’t be dressed up as that.
hear hear Kaiser.
I mean why can't 'local's' use there energy for good? Burning, non-acknowledgment of a fellow surfer sitting right next to you, blatant intimidation and the likes could be replaced with an unemotive bit of advice regarding etiquette at the break, a few more G'days and smiles. ….Jeez and I know this may sound crazy but giving a wave away every now and again.
In the case of Lennox, Burleigh and similar places are concerned, a bit of positive leadership and pulling into line of arrogant young fellas wouldn't go astray.
I don't really know the solution. I get that competition for this finite resource is getting more fierce. I think it comes down to why you are out there in the first place. Its a very rare day I chose to surf somewhere with more than 10 people out these days and as such can avoid the negative aspects of the human factor in it all.
yeah, thats true, but it does take a generalised understanding of some kind of common etiquette.
You can't count on that now.
If that does happen, it's great.
During Covid shutdown, it was packed but mostly local crowds. There was general understanding of a shared etiquette and it was reasonable behaviour.
Now we're seeing free for all crowds and that has broken down.
To my observations the responsibility for that falls mostly on the cluelessness of visiting crowds.
Seriously, seen some very, very shoddy behaviour over the last couple days.
Some fcukwit paddling up the inside of local 16 year old girls time and time again, then they get burnt by the dad/brother/friend and wonder why?
then do it again and expect a different result.
People expect and behave like its a free for all and when they find out it ain't they have no idea why.
Yep valid points and it works when all are of a similar mind. Alternatively, instead of the small group protecting its own interests, the general group should protect the whole. If you ain’t a local and see some bad behaviour, it should be acceptable to call it out (in a civil manner). Unfortunately the clashes will come when some dickhead does something that a dickhead would do and then claim to be allowed to cos he’s surfed here more times than someone else.
Points are a conundrum because of the whole paddling inside issue. It’s a tough one
it's a tough one, but it's amazing how often it does work.
I like good vibes in the surf. But order can break down in even tiny crowds.
Couple of winters ago I scored a rare little ruler edged S swell on a very fine piece of sand. Just a few people all trading off waves and having a ball.
Swiss or Austrian backpacker paddled out and started making a cunt of himself. Everyone else paddled in and it was just me and him.
He paddled inside every single time.
I tried to explain to him that it was just me and him, we could be having the best time ever, taking turns . He just looked at me dumbfounded. Totally no idea. To him surfing was paddling for every wave he could get near.
I had to call him off every wave.
He just didn't get it.
Thats the mentality that seems to create these total shitfights. I try and avoid these shitfights.....have turned around a few times in the last couple weeks with no go out.
But fucked if I'm going to sit at home when it's 6ft so Sven or Ricardo and their hundred best mates can go fill up.
And yeah, locals could be friendlier, but so could visitors. Show some respect. Give a smile. Pick up a ciggy butt. Don't leave your car running in the car park for hours, pumping out fumes so you can charge your phone.
Don't flog the absolute shit out of a dead horse putting it straight up on the internet.
Agree Freeride. The reality is that waves are a finite resource. More surfers than waves, particularly at the Marquee spots. Surfing is not a democracy, it is a hierarchy, like most of the human experience. Where resources are limited these social structures naturally evolve. Shout and scream about it all you like, but its not going to change.
And on the subject of paddling inside, the number of times that has happened to me, even at nearly empty beachies. And when I burn the snake they look at me incredulously - why did you burn me? Fuck off and don't paddle inside you kook. And wipe the surprised/hurt look off your face.
boardrider clubs are full of entitlement also, put up ugly flags at the best bank and tell everyone else to go away...fuck off! Windandsea want to build a clubhouse on sand dunes in currimundi... next to a protected reserve...
Oh yeah mate - mostly a bunch of entitled fucktards. Went to paddle out at surprising uncrowded Dbah a few years back only to have some flog scream at me "you can go out there, we're having a contest!" I'm like "what fuckin contest?" and he arrogantly points to his little tent on the dunes with his bum buddies in there. The name on the tent? - Maroochydore Caloundra Body Board Club. HAHAHAHA - pissed myself and paddled out.
HA! that'd be right
ahh it will never change it's a simple equation.
- Waves are a finite resource
- more people are surfing
- People are generally greedy
this equals less waves for everyone.... localism or a big love-in at the point won't change it...
So how was the surf ha ha....
I always thought that the boardriders should be the ones to give examples, but seems to go in the other direction most of the time, they burn everyone and start the chaos, I even heard a groom telling the other groom "We only look right, no matter who is behind" at Burleigh, it is ridiculous, what the fuck are they teaching kids? this is stupid, quite sad to be honest, it is easy to blame the brazzos, foreginers, the blacks, the yellows, the blues,... but the truth is that there is a terrible vibe in surfing right now on the gold coast / NNSW coast.
You put the time in at a particular break. I'm not talking 1 or 2 years, i'm talking 15+ and you will get waves, you will get respect.
Imagine if there was no localism at Burleigh, it would be full of SUPS and who knows what else. Take the Alley and Snapper/Rainbow for example, what a shit show it is down there.
sorry but I have to disagree with your idea, after surfing a break for 1-2 years and following the etiquette for that period, it would be more than far to have the right to surf a prime wave from the set, if it is my turn on the rotation. This greed mentality is the problem.
Yeh I'm with ya ando
If you've spent 15+ years at one break then you should be getting waves there without needing to be a moron
There’s no localism at Burleigh...the joints only over 2ft 3 times a year, and by then it’s too fuckin big for 99.9% of cunce
"Do you think an American company is really going to care about the feelings of Lennox locals???
American business ethics are ruthless, they didnt buy Coastalwatch to spin the wheels." "
Just on that.
Surfline bought CW but CW is still operating under its name, in Aus, and thus still responsible for whatever shitfight is created here.
And do you really think they are up for a king hell shitfight played out in all forms of media, across multiple levels of Govt by a highly motivated, organised and connected surfing community?
That would be a tremendous drain on their resources, not to mention brand damage in the surfing community. Especially if Surfing World gets dragged into it.
Cameras exist so companies can profit off public spaces, and there is a demand for it.
But people would look even less fondly on that if it was an American company behind it, rather than a little mom and pop one like SN.
I think CW would retreat from that battle very quickly, once they realised it was unwinnable for them and the cost of the fall-out would be orders of magnitude greater than the commercial benefits it conferred.
I've been to the area a few times. Lennox is a world class wave, but within a 5 minute drive are a batch of waves that are not as good but still pretty effing epic, with 1/10th of the number of surfers. I still have never paddled out at Lennox.
So many good waves in the area, just enjoy something slightly less perfect and you can have plenty of waves.
This is directed at Jackstance.
I agree with your sentiments. I really hope that the fictions on which our country have been founded and the horrid toll colonisation has taken on Australia's indigenous population can become fortified into our collective history. When Keating made his Redfern in 1992 speech at least we had some hope as a nation of developing a coherent historical account of settlement. Sadly, when Howard came to power the government again mobilised an exclusionary and sanitised version of our history intended to encourage the nation building spirit. The Jews always say 'never forget the war' yet as a nation in the context of our own attrocities we have never acknowledged it in the first place. People will travel to Germany to learn about the history of wartime atrocities yet we can barely avail ourselves to our own story.
On the topic of localism. If you surf the same spot regularly, particularly in a small town, you develop a conscience and self awareness about your behaviour in the water. When you 'blow in' to a spot you are generally over eager, largely anonymous and have a sense of entitlement to getting a wave. Everybody is guilty of this at some point. Surfing like you are driving on the highway brings out that dog eat dog sentiment. It takes a great deal of humility to actually participate in a line up.
I cannot get my head around turning up with 4-6 of your mates to surf an already crowded lineup. It is like shooting yourself in the foot. The other funny one is when people feel like they have been 'snaked' because they have taken off on the shoulder.
Perhaps the missing ingredient is the passing of these values between surfers. Exactly as Freeride76 described people just don't any better. But if we do have that knowledge we should share that with people in a firm but constructive manner that demonstrates the benefit of having a little consideration.