South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th June)

Best Days: Fun tho' windy points building Thurs, peaking Fri, easing late Fri/Sat. Winds becoming light and ideal for open beaches by Sat as the swell starts to ease, so we'll have a great waves across most coasts to start the weekend. Fun leftover swell Sun with a N'ly wind risk. Small next week at this stage though there's potential to watch. 

Recap: E’ly swells rebuilt to 2-3ft+ on Tuesday, and have held a similar size today, if anything down a smidge in size and consistency. Winds have been mainly out of the southern quadrant, though the Mid North Coast was light offshore for much of Tuesday and also this morning. 

Snapper still looking fun this morning

This week (June 18 - 19)

A southerly change is advancing along the NSW coast today, and a strengthening coastal ridge will hold it place across the region for the next couple of days. Indeed, Thursday will become quite windy at times, with the direction veering from the south to the south-east (though early south-west pockets are possible). 

As for surf, our small undercurrent of E’ly swell will be superseded by a short range SE thru’ E/SE swell originating from the ridge (building Thursday, peaking early Friday, then easing) whilst we’ll also see some short range S’ly swell across Northern NSW. 

On top of that - though it won’t be noticeable - will be a small southerly groundswell later Thursday (Mid North Coast) and early Friday (remaining Northern NSW coast), originating from the parent low to the change - when it was underneath Tasmania on Tuesday. However, its poor alignment means only south facing beaches south of Byron will see any size, with occasional 3ft+ sets. It’ll be much smaller elsewhere.

Anyway, local winds will render everywhere except southern ends and sheltered points unsurfable, so you’ll have to look for some protection over the next couple of days.

Surf size should reach a bumpy 3-5ft across exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller waves running down the points (inner points will be much smaller). Wave heights will also be smaller south from Yamba, and size will start to ease everywhere into Friday afternoon.

However, late Friday may also see a small pulse of SE swell across across Northern NSW, from a front that’s expected to clip the South Island of New Zealand this evening, and then strengthen a S’ly fetch off its West Coast through Thursday (see below). This swell is more likely to peak on Saturday morning, but may provide some late 3ft+ sets right on dark Friday. 

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

A large cut-off low will dominate the south-eastern corner of the country this weekend, influencing everywhere from the east coast through to the SA/WA border. 

It’ll be slow moving, with light winds and sea breezes through Saturday slowly freshening from the north on Sunday, though trending NW in parts.

Friday’s easing E’ly swell should manage early 3ft+ sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and most of Northern NSW should also see a fun SE swell of a similar size (maybe a few bigger waves here and there where the swell trains double up). However southern corners and all points will be smaller in size. 

A slight easing will occur into Sunday, probably still some 2-3ft sets at the swell magnets though smaller elsewhere, especially SE Qld. The northerly risk will confine the best waves to sheltered northern corners. 

Next week (June 22 onwards)

As the trough pushes offshore into Sunday, we’ll see winds swing moderate to fresh W’ly on Monday and Tuesday, creating clean beaches just about everywhere. 

Unfortunately, the synoptic chart doesn't look very good for surf. The developing trough off the coast this weekend looks promising, except it appears to be aligned much better towards the southern part of the country (i.e. Tasmania’s East Coast). I’ve pulled back my expectations for next week, which is unfortunate as these systems - when they line up properly - often produce some of the best waves for the East Coast. 

As such, early next week is looking at generally small, inconsistent swells from a couple of peripheral sources: E’ly from the trough in the central Tasman Sea and some residual E/SE energy from poorly aligned weekend activity just NW of new Zealand. And we’ll also see some glancing long period S’ly groundswell from a polar low pushing below Tasmania and New Zealand over the weekend. 

The trough is modelled to align a little better inside our swell window through the start of next week (so, there's potential for some flukey SE swells Tues/Wed), but it may not be until the middle of the week where it really starts to kick into gear. Therefore, we may have to deal with two or maybe three days of small surf before wave heights rebuild more convincingly into Thursday and Friday (indeed, the models have a large E/SE swell for late Fri/Sat, but let’s not hold our breath).

See you Friday!