South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th May)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: more strong S'ly tending SE swell, though biggest in Northern NSW and a little wind affected at times. Fun and clean (though much smaller) SE Qld outer points.  Thurs: small clean leftovers. 

Recap: Look, I’m not going to spend too much time trying to describe the last three days of waves.. it’s been a pretty amazing run of swell(s), even if some coasts have been pushing well above comfort levels at times. In general, the weekend fluctuated in the 5-6ft+ range across Northern NSW, with late Sunday seeing a pulse of bigger S’ly swell that held into today, around 6-8ft at south facing beaches, occasionally 8-10ft at a few spots. Also in the mix for the entire period was a lully but quality E’ly swell, that built from 3ft to 3-5ft on Saturday, and maintained this size through Sunday and today. W’ly winds on Saturday swung W/SW through SW Sunday but it never really went S/SW across Northern NSW as expected. Today has reverted back to a general W/SW thru’ SW airstream.

Monday afternoon drainers at Snapper Rocks

Empty afternoon at Narrowneck

This week (May 26 - 29)

The Tasman Low is still active in our swell window (see below) though will begin to weaken from tomorrow. 

As such we’ll see elevated wave heights through Tuesday (6-8ft open south facing beaches in Northern NSW), along with a swing in the swell direction from the south to the south-east, thanks to a new fetch developing along the low’s southern flank. 

Surf size will ease slowly through Wednesday (still 6ft+ in Northern NSW), and then more steadily from Thursday. The current E’ly swell in the water will also ease steadily from Tuesday, so much so that it probably won’t be noticeable beneath the larger S’ly tending SE swell. 

Across SE Qld, we’ll see smaller size thanks to the easing E’ly swell and less favourable alignment of the S’ly tending SE swell. Tuesday should still manage inconsistent 3-4ft across outer Gold Coast points (a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast) but exposed northern ends and south swell magnets could see another foot or two. Expect size to then ease from Wednesday onwards. 

Winds are the main issue for the coming days, though it’ll still remain very good across the points and other sheltered locations. The Tasman Low has been positioned far enough south over the last couple of days to allow westerly breezes across our region. However, it will move slowly north over the coming days, swinging the wind to the S/SW across Northern NSW on Tuesday, eventually S’ly. It'll become quite gusty at times too.

Fortunately, SE Qld should largely be spared any major strength in the wind, as it’s expected to reach this region overnight Tuesday and then gradually weaken, so we’ll probably see all-day light to moderate W/SW winds Tuesday, then freshening SW breezes Wednesday morning before they ease into the afternoon. 

Northern NSW looks better on Wednesday with easing W/SW winds across the Mid North Coast, but Yamba through to the border may feel the lingering effects of gusty overnight S/SW winds, early morning - though they will also ease here during the day.

Thursday and Friday are looking a small residual swells with light winds Thursday freshening from the south on Friday as a weak front pushes up the coast. 

Northern NSW should see a continual supply of small useful E’ly swell these days, originating from strong to gale force E’ly winds exiting western Cook Strait (developing from tomorrow). This should maintain background 2-3ft surfthough the fetch is modeled to swing anti-clockwise over the coming days, aimed more towards Tasmania. So this energy may only show best on Thursday, before easing slowly on Friday.

This weekend (May 30 - 31)

We’ve got an average weekend of surf ahead. 

Lingering southerly winds on Saturday will take the sheen off small residual swells, and Sunday should be clean early but there’s a risk of afternoon northerlies as a series of strong fronts approach from the west. 

As for surf, the remnants of the Tasman Low will eventually merge with another centre of low pressure off the west coast of New Zealand’s North Island, forming a new S/SE fetch later this week that looks like generating some new swell for our region.

However, I’m uncertain whether we’ll see any significant surf - this looks to be a short-lived surface feature, and early indications are that its alignment may be off-axis for our swell window. At this stage I’m not expecting much on Saturday, and perhaps a small bump to 2-3ft on Sunday at south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller in SE Qld.

Let’s take another pass on Wednesday. 

Next week (June 1 onwards)

Next week is shaping up to deliver more strong fronts thanks to an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough. So, there’s a whole stack of solid, windy south swell on the way. 

See you Wednesday!