South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 11th May)

Best Days: Fun waves most days. 

Recap: Easterly swells managed 2-3ft sets both Saturday and Sunday, with light winds and sea breezes Saturday followed by light winds Sunday ahead of a S’ly change that accompanied a building S/SE groundswell across Northern NSW to 3ft+ during the day. Today has seen a fresh short range S’ly swell push a little higher with 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and persistent E’ly swells have maintained great 2-3ft sets across the coast today, with an afternoon pulse pushing a little higher (how’s those lines below at the Superbank this afternoon!).

Three stages of a single set at the Superbank, Monday afternoon

This week (May 12 - 15)

Today’s southerly swell will trend down through Tuesday. South facing beaches in Northern NSW may see a few early 3-4ft sets to begin with but for the most part expect an easing trend to 2-3ft, with smaller waves elsewhere. By Wednesday we’ll be back to slow 2ft waves at south swell magnets. 

The current E’ly swell should maintain inconsistent sets through Tuesday and Wednesday morning in the 2-3ft range, ahead of an afternoon pulse of bigger surf that’ll persist through Thursday, generated by current developments N/NE of New Zealand, where the same responsible system (for the current energy) is broadening and reintensifying.

Now, I’m not super confident on the arrival time of this next phase of swell, a fact that’s isn't helped by unsupportive model guidance either - it's suggesting we won’t see an arrival until Thursday, and even then won’t crack much more than two or three feet.

Best estimates are that Wednesday afternoon’s new swell should peak into Thursday around 3-4ft+, with long breaks between the sets but otherwise good waves on offer under light variable winds Wednesday, persisting Thursday morning north of Byron but with a risk of a shallow S’ly change across many parts of Northern NSW. We’ll eventually see the wind swing moderate to fresh S’ly across SE Qld through Thursday afternoon but most of the morning should be clean here.

Also, Wednesday will see some sideband SE swell in the water from a stalled trough in the central/northeastern Tasman Sea (developing right now). The models aren’t picking this up very well but 2-3ft sets are likely at many beaches (it may be hard to notice in the mix though).

An easterly infeed into the same trough in the north-eastern Tasman will then supply a second E’ly swell on Friday - just as the primary E’ly swell (from late Wed/Thurs) starts to ease.

This should maintain 3-4ft sets across exposed beaches to finish the working week but we’ll be under a moderate to fresh S/SE breeze by this time, courtesy of a building ridge through the Coral Sea. A weaker pressure gradient is expected south from Yamba so light variable winds are likely across the Mid North Coast (early SW winds are possible at many coasts too, except the Sunshine Coast). 

Lastly, a small mix of overlapping S’ly swells are expected later Thursday and Friday in Northern NSW, from two related sources - a deep though somewhat shadowed low south of Tasmania right now and its associated front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea from later Wednesday onwards. They'll be smaller than the pre-existing E'ly swell though.

This weekend (May 16 - 17)

The Coral Sea ridge may remain in place through Saturday, keeping most coasts under a brisk southerly breeze. Early SW winds are however likely and it’ll be light south from Yamba, so there’ll be decent options through the morning at most regions. Sunday will then see light winds and sea breezes across all coasts under a weak high pressure ridge.

As for surf, the same E’ly swell sources for Friday will continue to maintain fun waves across open beaches on Saturday, before gradually easing sometime on Sunday. We’ll probably see a peak around 3-4ft+, though it’ll be rather inconsistent at times. 

Small residual south swells are also expected in the water across Northern NSW though no major size is expected. 

Next week (May 18 onwards)

The Tasman Sea is looking pretty active next week with a reasonable low pressure system on the cards that should generate some decent energy for most coasts, possibly quite sizeable in Northern NSW through the first half of the week. 

Lingering E’ly swell is also possible all week from a flukey, stationary fetch way out NE of New Zealand (related to the same source for our impending swell later this week and into the weekend), but it’ll probably be too far away to generate any notable size. 

See you Wednesday!