South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th May)

Best Days: Entire period: fun round of E'ly swell, peaking later Sat/Sun. Also some reasonable S/SE swell in the mix over the weekend (biggest Northern NSW) but developing S'ly winds will spoil conditions Sun/Mon.

Recap: Tuesday maintained a good S/SE swell all day, with a minor strengthening late afternoon, against forecast expectations. South facing beaches south of Byron saw 4-6ft sets, with 2-3ft+ waves throughout SE Qld and a few bigger bombs at exposed northern ends. Winds were mainly moderate to fresh southerly (following early SW breezes in some spots) so outer points were the pick. A gradual easing occurred throughout though there was still plenty of size on offer, around 4ft+ across south facing beaches south of Byron, and 2-3ft throughout SE Qld in conjunction with a secondary trade swell that’s building across the region. Winds eased back but remained from the southern quadrant, with early sou’westers in place. 

Snapper still looking a treat this morning

Nice early sets at D'bah

This week (May 5 - 8)

In general, the trend for the next few days will be easing from the south across Northern NSW, but slowly building from the east across SE Qld. Even better, winds will become light so conditions will clean up nicely. 

Let’s kick off with Northern NSW first. Today’s S/SE swell will ease fairly steadily into Thursday; early 3ft+ sets are possible at south facing beaches (south of Byron) in the morning but it’ll be smaller elsewhere and abating through the day. 

Overnight Thursday, a new long period S’ly swell will glance the Southern NSW coast, generated by an intense low SW of Tasmania yesterday. Although core winds were recorded to 40-50kts, this low was positioned right on the periphery of our swell window and the fetch is very poorly aligned for us. 

The low is currently moving towards New Zealand longitudes and will develop much more favourable swell generating characteristics over the coming days, but for now the first round of energy from this system will be extremely flukey, with inconsistent 2-3ft sets an outside possibility at a handful of reliable south swell magnets south of Byron on Friday (more likely the arvo than the morning). Elsewhere it’ll be tiny. Don't bank on this swell, it's a low percentage event.

And there's a possible fly in the ointment for Friday too (in Northern NSW) - an afternoon freshening N/NE breeze. The morning should be clean with light NW winds though.

As for SE Qld, there’s a strong ridge through the Coral Sea right now and it’s generating some useful trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Surf size should maintain 2-3ft both days, with the odd bigger bomb likely across the Sunshine Coast (as it’s closer to the swell source). Wave heights will be slightly smaller south from about Ballina or Yamba.

Light winds and sea breezes are expected both days with clean conditions throughout.

This weekend (May 9 - 10)

Looks like a weekend of two halves. Light winds on Saturday north from about Ballina, but freshening NW to the south. And then a gusty S’ly change extending across all coasts on Sunday, though delayed in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld early morning with a period of light W'ly winds. 

As for surf, there’s quite a few sources on the charts. The trade flow in the northern Tasman Sea will become enhanced over the coming days from a small tropical low near southern Vanuatu, which will then drag to the east. This should lift surf size to around 3ft+ across most open beaches over the weekend, perhaps a slight delay early Saturday though holding nicely through Sunday and the start of next week.

The same low responsible for Friday’s flukey south swell in Northern NSW is expected to redevelop and restrengthen off the Antarctic ice shelf on Thursday morning, with storm force S/SW winds projecting up into New Zealand (see below). 

This isn’t perfectly aimed for our region but winds strengths are very good and the fetch is broad and strong, so it should generate a healthy spread of S/SE swell across the entire NSW coast this weekend. And there’s been an upgrade in the model guidance since Monday, so I’ve slightly increased my size expectations. 

For some strange reason the models are completely missing this swell. I’m not sure why - there are a lot of peripheral swells in the mix, so perhaps it’s further down the spectral priority list - but at the moment we’re looking at inconsistent 3ft sets at south facing beaches on Saturday, reaching 3-4ft across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon and then across Far Northern NSW on Sunday.

This S/SE swell will be smaller throughout SE Qld, around 2ft+ on the outer points and a little bigger at exposed northern ends though to be honest it’ll be hard to pick from the existing E’ly swell. 

Sunday will also see another small south swell into the afternoon (mainly across the Mid North Coast), originating from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday. However by this time we’ll be under a gusty S’ly breeze so those locations picking up the most size will be wind affected. 

Next week (May 11 onwards)

A succession of strong fronts through the Southern Ocean will maintain varying degrees of small to moderate S’ly swell for Northern NSW's south facing beaches during the first half of next week (generally 2-3ft south facing beaches from Mon thru' Wed) ahead of a stronger pulse around Thursday that could reach 4-5ft+. 

The tropical low responsible for the weekend’s easterly swells will stall as a broad trough north of New Zealand over the weekend. It looks like it’ll be a useful swell generator for a few days though the greater travel distance will significantly impact the consistency of the swell. Nevertheless I’m expecting three or four days of intermittent energy somewhere in the 3ft range, with the odd period pushing slightly higher at times (say, 3-4ft). 

Sunday’s S’ly change will be associated with a developing ridge which will maintain fresh southerly winds for a day or two and generate some local S/SE swell for SE Qld, though no major quality is expected.

So, next week has plenty of swell sources on the cards but you may need to wait until mid-week for the best conditions. 

See you Friday!