South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th March)

Best Days: Most days this week: should have good waves at the points, under fresh S/SE winds Tues/Wed, tending light and variable from Thursday onwards (couple of wind risks, mainly MNC, see below). New S'ly swell for Northern NSW this weekend.  

Recap: Temporarily abating winds on Saturday allowed for the cleanest surf conditions of the last weak so (at some open beaches anyway, mainly south from Byron) before restrengthening southerly winds kicked in during Sunday, holding into today. Surf size eased through Saturday and into early Sunday, but built from two sources on Sunday afternoon; a ridge across Southern NSW, and another strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea, being squeezed by the approach of TC Gretel. This has produced an extended run of great surf across sheltered points, mainly those on the Gold Coast. Surf size is back up around the 4-5ft+mark at exposed spots.

Even the frothy in-betweeners at Snapper look great

This week (Mar 17 - 20)

Gusty S/SE winds will persist through Tuesday and Wednesday throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, maintaining great waves at various points where the sand is stacking up properly.  We'll see pockets of early SW winds but this will be the exception rather than the rule. 

The current surf conditions has a healthy percentage of short-range S/SE energy in the mix, and this will ease steadily over the coming days as the ridge slowly retreats to the north. 

TC Gretel is still unlikely to be a direct contributor to our swell regime (its southern flank looks really impressive in single-synoptic-snapshots, but it’s tracking too quickly east for any major size), but indirectly it has already supported a broad ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea, and is also enhancing a few other fetches in other swell windows.

A stalled front off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island will anchor a modest S’ly fetch in the south-eastern Tasman Sea, and this will supply small SE swell through Wednesday and Thursday. E/SE gales exiting western Cook Strait on Tuesday will generate a small swell from the same direction around Thursday. 

As for size, we’re looking at 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft surf persisting at most exposed beaches (smaller down the points, especially sheltered inner locations) through Tuesday and Wednesday, easing back a little through Thursday and Friday though still likely to remain quite strong, as the swell periods will have drawn out quite a bit from the current energy. So I’m doubtful of much size in the 6ft range throughout the second half of this week, but the overall trend from Tuesday thru' Friday will probably ebb and flow, rather than ease under any significant trend.

Local conditions look really good on Thursday as a weak high results in light variable winds and sea breezes everywhere - this will be a major improvement from the points-only S/SE flow of Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday should see similar conditions to Thursday though the Mid North Coast up to about Yamba will see freshening N/NE winds throughout the day. 

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

The easterly swell tap will switch off mid-week which means the weekend will see steadily easing wave heights from this direction (the easing trend will start to become apparent at some point on Friday).

However, we have a strong S’ly groundswell on the way, originating from a powerful front passing well to the south of Tasmania later Wednesday and Thursday (see below). 

This system - despite not being perfectly aligned within our swell window - looks very good for a decent south swell across Northern NSW on Saturday, but I’m not expecting much influence in SE Qld. 

Winds should be light and variable with sea breezes in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW but there is a risk of northerlies all weekend on the Mid North Coast (mornings should be NW though). 

As for size, the easing E’ly swell should manage 3ft+ sets early Saturday but will be down to 2-3ft by Sunday (smaller down the points). South from Byron, south facing beaches should pick up 3-5ft S’ly swell on Saturday, easing Sunday though slightly reinforced by a secondary front passing south of Tasmania on Friday.

South swell magnets north of the border may pick up a few stray 2-3ft sets form the south swell if we're lucky but to be honest the existing/easing E'ly swell will probably be more dominant.

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

More strong fronts are expected south of Tasmania this weekend suggesting plenty of south swell next week.

In addition, a steady trade flow through the South Pacific and Northern Tasman Sea should supply small useful E’ly swell, and there’s a suggestion for an enhanced E’ly dip that may boost surf size later in the week with a little more size and period.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.