South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th March)

Best Days: Entire period: solid though windy waves across sheltered points (biggest Mon-Wed). Sat should see the only window of light variable winds across the Mid North Coast, though with smaller residual swells. 

Recap: Strong though somewhat jumbled mid-range SE swells have provided 4-5ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW over the last few days, with smaller surf along the Mid North Coast. Winds have been generally fresh SE though there have been regions of early light S’ly winds, ideal for the points. Winds have been lighter across the Mid North Coast and were offshore yesterday morning and also for a reasonable percentage of today. 

Snapper looking tasty this morning

This weekend (Mar 14 - 15)

Synoptically speaking, Saturday will mark a somewhat low point between this week’s windy conditions, and a fresh run of S/SE gales throughout the region from Sunday onwards.

Across SE Qld, there won’t be much of a change, especially across exposed coasts. Wind speeds may drop ten or fifteen percent from today but this will still be too much for open beaches, though we’ll see ideal conditions across the points and the southern Gold Coast should pick up an early southerly flow. 

Much of Far Northern NSW (north of Yamba) will see moderate to maybe S’ly tending S/SE winds, but south from here should experience light variable winds for much of the day, perhaps a moderate southerly into the afternoon. 

As for surf, the current E’ly swell will have eased back a little from today and will continue a downwards trend through into the afternoon. Early sets may still approach 3-4ft in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW but will be smaller south from Ballina. Protected points will also be smaller in size and won’t enjoy the high tide. 

On Sunday we’ll see a rebuilding combination of swells from several sources. 

A strong southerly change will push up into the Mid North Coast overnight Saturday, and a yet-to-be-named tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea will strengthen the supporting ridge to its south, which itself currently extends a fair distance eastwards out into the South Pacific (east of NZ longitudes). From Sunday it’ll start to consolidate around the approaching cyclone and this will strengthen core winds through the Northern Tasman Sea, and build ocean swells towards a peak early next week.

As such the main trend for Sunday will be a strengthening of winds. Early morning may be lucky enough to see lighter SW winds across a handful of locations but by late afternoon most locations should be approaching gale-force S/SE winds. So, it’ll be a day for sheltered points though initially the building swell will trail the increasing winds (so, don’t expect a lot of size early morning at protected spots). 

Much much size could we see? It’s always hard estimating the mid-way point of an upwards trend but late Sunday should be somewhere back into the 4-5ft range at most open beaches, smaller across the points. Expect undersized surf early morning.

Next week (Mar 16 onwards)

The outlook for next week has been quite up and down over the last few days, but we now appear to be consolidating towards a firm trend regarding the upcoming tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea.

As feared all week, this cyclone is expected to move too quickly through our swell window - not even taking the courtesy to set up camp near New Zealand’s North Island any more - and therefore will have little direct influence on our surf prospects.

However, indirectly, it’ll actually generate some good mid-range E’ly swell, courtesy of the supporting ridge to the south, which will broaden and strengthen nicely. Exposed beaches should see a broad plateau of size in the 4-6ft range from Monday through Wednesday as multiple swell trains overlaps from a retreating source. It’s not an ideal synoptic setup, and the swell won’t be very straight or well defined, but there’ll be plenty of size for sheltered points and with winds holding from the S/SE quadrant they’ll offer favourable conditions. 

Just on the wind trend - Monday looks to be pretty blowy (gale force in some regions) as the strongest influence of the cyclone affects the coastal margin. Tuesday will see a steady easing trend with pockets of early light SW winds, and they’ll become more prevalent into Wednesday as the ridge across the northern Tasman Sea weakens. 

Although the upcoming tropical cyclone will move too fast through our swell window for a significant swell event, its broad spatial coverage will ensure we see plenty of E’ly swell through the second half of the week, even as size eases. So, Thursday and early Friday could manage some inconsistent 3-5ft sets, through the trend should eventually head down as we head into next weekend. Light variable winds are expected for the second half of the week too.

Looking further ahead and there’s a couple of beefy fronts lining up below Tasmania later next week that should supply a whole stack of south swell for Northern NSW next weekend, but let’s wait and see how the models handle that in Monday’s update.

Have a great weekend!