South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th September)

Best Days: Dicey winds for much of the forecast period. Early Fri, early Sat and early Sun look to be the pick, mainly in Northern NSW. Friday morning will see the most size out of the south. Expect small surf in SE Qld for the most part (Fri AM the pick).

Recap: Monday’s E’ly swell hung around a little longer than expected, with both yesterday and this morning maintaining 2-3ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. It is however easing, and winds have been a bit of an issue at times, veering from the S to the SE and even E on Tuesday; now around to the NE for much of today following a brief window of light winds this morning. A new S/SE swell also started to build across the Southern NSW coast later Tuesday, and is now showing across the Mid North Coast.

Still some fun runners at Snapper Rocks this morning

Workable at the Superbank too

The gutters seem to be filling in across Surfers Paradise

This week (Sep 26 - 27)

Local winds are the big wild card for the next few days.

The current E’ly swell will continue to ease in size so we can expect smaller surf from this source across most SE Qld coasts for the rest of the week. 

However, the expected S/SE swell is nicely on track, sourced from a strong frontal progression through the south-eastern Tasman Sea that reached maximum intensity this morning. 

As such we’re looking at a further increase in S/SE swell into Thursday, with peak in size likely early Friday morning across Northern NSW; sets should reach 4-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron.

Surf size will be smaller at beaches not open to the south, and only south swell magnets and exposed northern ends in SE Qld will pick up this swell with occasional 2-3ft waves, a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast.

Unfortunately, an approaching trough from the south-west and a ridge of high pressure in the northern Tasman Sea will freshen N’ly winds across most coasts, creating poor conditions at many locations. 

There will be brief windows of opportunity though - Thursday looks pretty ordinary throughout most of Northern NSW, but the morning should see lighter breezes in SE Qld (still likely still cross/onshore). Friday morning is the pick of the next few days with a period of lighter winds in most regions tending NW at times, before the N’ly resumes at strength into the afternoon. Though, some exposed coasts - such as Byron/Ballina - may not quite see enough improvement on the surface to get excited about. 

Friday’s size trend will ease through the day, so if you’re planning on surfing in the next few days, aim for a very early session. 

This weekend (Sep 28 - 29)

We’ve had a change in the weekend winds, with a weak front now expected to clip the Mid North Coast on Saturday afternoon, delivering S’ly winds up to about Coffs Harbour. 

Ahead of the change, we’ll see light offshore winds from the NW, though SE Qld will probably see a resumption of northerlies through the afternoon. A slack region between the change and the border will likely experience variable winds after lunch. 

As for surf, Friday’s easing S’ly swell will continue into Saturday, perhaps some 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron) early but down to 2-3ft during the day, but very small at most SE Qld beaches, only 2ft at exposed northern ends and south swell magnets.

We may also see some small N’ly windswell across exposed north-facing beaches, from gusty N’ly winds Friday night. It won’t be very high quality, though the combined swells may offer some interesting peaks at open beaches, if you can pick a window of favourable winds.

A reasonable fetch trailing Saturday’s southerly change will kick up a fresh S’ly swell for Sunday, around 3ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. There won’t be much size elsewhere though, and winds will probably swing back around to the northern quadrant (N/NW early, NE into the afternoon.

Expect small residual swells throughout much of SE Qld too, as the south swell is not expected to favour anywhere north of the border.

Next week (Sep 30 onwards)

A small low is modeled to form off the Northern NSW coast on Monday. Current expectations that it will mainly be a wind change (and not a swell generator) but I’ll have more details on that in Friday’s update. 

Otherwise, we’ve got another round of Southern Ocean fronts expected to nose into the south-eastern Tasman Sea from Sunday onwards, that’ll generate another run of overlapping S’ly tending S/SE swell from Monday probably through until Thursday or maybe even Friday next week. No major size is expected at this stage but it’ll certainly keep south facing beaches (south from Byron) flush with fun south swell for much of the week. 

More on this in Friday’s update.