South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd September)

Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: fun E'ly swell in Northern NSW (smaller and more E/SE thru' SE in Qld) with generally OK winds. 

Recap: A mix of average quality swell produced patchy results over the weekend, around 3-4ft in Northern NSW though wind affected at times, but very small across protected spots and throughout most of SE Qld. Today has delivered much better surf with a clean E’ly groundswell producing 3-5ft waves in Northern NSW, slightly smaller in SE Qld, and clean with offshore winds. 

Long lines at Snapper Rocks

Alex Headland looking tasty this morning

This week (Sep 3 - 6)

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Once again, the models don’t like the look of this week’s surf prospects. 

However, we have some fun waves in store. A shallow southerly change that reached the Mid North Coast late this afternoon will merge with the remnants of the trough responsible for this morning’s E’ly swell - currently sitting in the north-eastern Tasman Sea - and will slightly strengthen an easterly fetch on its southern flank.

However, this fetch is aimed mainly towards the Mid North Coast and Hunter region, so we’ll see smaller surf as you head north into Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. Swell direction will trend more E/SE thru’ SE across this region too. 

As such, although today’s E’ly swell will ease into Tuesday, we’ll see building swells into the afternoon that’ll hold through Wednesday before easing Thursday. No major size is expected but sets should occasionally reach 3-4ft across the Mid North Coast, 3ft in Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf on the Gold Coast up to 2-3ft at exposed northern ends and a handful of outer points, though smaller elsewhere and across much of the Sunshine Coast. 

For what it’s worth, the synoptic chart shows much more promise than this with a high pressure gradient around the low overnight tonight, but the strongest winds will be on the low’s western flank aimed towards Fiji (we may see a small spread from this in far Northern NSW and SE Qld, but it'll probably be smaller than the pre-existing E/SE swell). So, don't be deceived by the charts!

Conditions look generally clean with variable winds on offer - a couple of weak troughs may cause onshore to crop up here and there but it won’t be overly dominant. 

Thursday afternoon and Friday look small in general, however we have a complex trough pushing across from the west and a last minute infeed from the northwest tending northerly - whilst not showing very strongly in the latest model guidance - could be ramped up over the coming days and we could be looking at a punchy N’ly windswell to finish the working week (mainly the southern Gold Coast, Tweed Coast and exposed parts off the Byron Coast). I’ll have more on this in Wednesday’s update. 

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

As the trough pushes into the Tasman Sea overnight Friday, we’ll see a deep Tasman Low form close to the coast - possibly as an ECL. This will drive southerly gales along the Southern NSW coast on Saturday, generating large local swells for Northern NSW on Sunday. 

Prior to this, gusty W’ly winds on Saturday will iron flat any residual N’ly wind swell form late Friday (maybe a stray small wave at the swell magnets early morning). South facing beaches south of Byron may also see a small wave on Saturday from a small low/front in the south-eastern Tasman Sea on Thursday, though it looks poorly aligned for our swell window so I’m not expecting much size. 

Building S’ly swells on Sunday will be accompanied by gusty SW winds, with limited surfing options - south facing beaches south of Byron could push 4-6ft but the acute direction will create much smaller surf elsewhere and SE Qld beaches won’t see much than couple of slow feet across the outer points.

Keep your expectations low at this early stage as it’s a flukey, low confidence event and will change around a lot over the coming days.  

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

Further strong fronts are expected to maintain a strong southerly progression through our southern swell window during the first half of next week. As such, it’s looking strong and sizeable southerly swells for quite a few days early next week throughout Northern NSW, but only small surf in SE Qld. More on this in the next update on Wednesday.