South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th May)

Best Days: Tues: brief S'ly swell across Northern NSW (very small in SE Qld). Thurs: small building S'ly swell in Northern NSW (tiny in SE Qld). Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues: series of large S'ly swells, though with extended periods of fresh S'ly winds.

Recap: Saturday delivered small peaky trade swells in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and light winds kept conditions clean. A mid-period E’ly swell made landfall early Sunday and built to a peak around 3ft+ into the afternoon, with some great waves reported across many of the beaches. Winds were light and variable with light to moderate afternoon sea breezes. Although size has gradually eased today (with light morning winds), some locations were still pulling in 3ft+ sets throughout the morning (see below, from Narrowneck).

Clean lines of E'y swell at Narrowneck, mid-morning Monday (SUP rider standing at the base of the peaking wave on the left, for size reference)

This week (May 28 - 31)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

First things first: we’ll see small, inconsistent E’ly swells for much of the week, originating from the remnants of the E’ly dip/trough that generated Sunday’s lovely swell. No major size, strength or consistency is expected though, so don't view it as a primary swell source.

Now, let’s glance to our south swell window, which is seeing a lot of activity on the synoptics as a major cold outbreak impacts the southern states (though today’s max of 27 degrees in Coolangatta was very nice in contrast!). 

The projected southerly swells for this week have been up and down like a yo-yo throughout the model runs over the last few days. It’s all associated with a slow moving amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough, and getting the specifics nailed down has been very difficult. Mainly because the position of the storm track has been right over the SE corner of the state, straddling the Tasmanian divide. Some model runs have pushed it to the west (downgrading our size potential), others have pushed it to the east (upgrading our size potential). But we're closer to the event now so the models are starting to converge.

Anyway, the first south swell associated with this pattern will build across Northern NSW on Tuesday. A slightly less favourable alignment exiting eastern Bass Strait (see chart below) has resulted in a downgrading of size too, though the strength of the fetch is expected to be pretty strong and we should see some strong energy at exposed spots south of Byron, with sets around 3-4ft, arriving in the morning across the Mid North Coast and after lunch in the Far North.

The swell direction will be very steep, so beaches not open to the south will be much smaller, and there won’t be much size throughout SE Qld (south swell magnets pay pick up stray 2ft+ waves, though probably not until the afternoon). Conditions will be clean with winds holding from the western quadrant. 

At the same time, the storm track will angle away from our swell window again, so surf size will drop right off later Wednesday and into Thursday as W/NW winds persist across the coast. We’ll see westerly gales exiting eastern Bass Strait swing slightly W/SW throughout Wednesday, providing a new round of southerly swell spread across exposed coasts into Thursday afternoon (Mid North Coast), though probably not reaching the Far North until Friday. South swell magnets south of about Coffs should pick up 2-3ft sets after lunch, with smaller waves prior to then.

By Thursday, the LWT will be firmly into the Tasman Sea and the broader storm track will push up from the south. A strong S/SW fetch trailing a cold front is expected to be off the Far South Coast around dawn and this will provide a bigger south swell for Northern NSW on Friday, reaching 4-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. Again, the usual caveats apply - smaller at beaches not open to the south, and not a lot of size throughout SE Qld, away from a handful of south swell magnets and exposed northern ends. 

In fact, a series of much broader, stronger fronts will then enter the lower Tasman Sea overnight Thursday, providing another boost in size late Friday (mainly across the Mid North Coast) that’ll peak over the weekend. South swell magnets south from Coffs could see 6ft+ sets on dark.

For the most part, local winds look good Thursday across most coasts and Friday in the Far North and SE Qld, but the Mid North Coast will be at risk of developing southerlies throughout Friday. As such, protected locations will offer the best waves as the swell reaches an appreciable size. 

This weekend (June 1 - 2)

Friday’s late size increase across the Mid North Coast will plateau through Saturday, and then ease slowly into Sunday. 

At its peak (Saturday afternoon), south swell magnets south from Byron are looking to be somewhere between 6ft and maybe 8ft, though fresh southerly winds will favour the points and other sheltered spots (and they’ll be much smaller). Lighter winds are expected on Sunday as this southerly swell gradually fades in size, in the order of two or three feet. 

North from Byron, we’ll see small surf across the outer points in the 2-3ft range by late afternoon (smaller earlier) and bigger surf pushing 3-5ft at exposed northern ends. However, fresh southerly winds are expected Saturday, and this will only favour protected spots too. Sunday will see an improvement with lighter winds and easing swells. 

As a side note, south swells aren’t terribly reliable for SE Qld so despite the breadth of activity on the charts, it’s not worth getting too excited for this phase of southerly swell. There’ll be waves about, but also a reasonable chance of racking up a lot of mileage for not a whole lot of water time.

Next week (June 3 onwards)

Yet another similar passage of strong fronts is expected through the lower Tasman Sea early next week, that will renew large, windy south swells across the region for a couple of days. In fact early indications are that it may be bigger than what we’re expecting this Fri/Sat (though it’s early days yet).