South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th April)

Best Days: Most days should have fun small waves with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Peaky short range S/SE swells have occupied SE Qld and Far Northern NSW over the last few days, with smaller surf south from Byron. Exposed south facing beaches have been very ordinary under a SW thru’ SE airstream and there hasn’t really been enough size for the points. As such, quality surf has been quite hard to find. 

This weekend (April 13 - 14)

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No change to the weekend forecast. 

The synoptic flow will remain from the southern quadrant, so we’ll see similar conditions to today - early sou’westers across some coasts, tending S’ly then SE in general. No major strength is likely in the wind, but we can expect a little more oomph in the north than in the south, though it won’t be overly detrimental. 

A ridge across the Queensland coast extends only just down to SE Qld latitudes, so most of the swell being generated is aimed at locations north from the Sunshine Coast. We’ll see the most size north from Moreton Island (2-3ft open SC beaches, tiny on the points), and gradually smaller surf as you head south from the Gold Coast. 

Northern NSW will pick up small flukey southerly groundswells all weekend. The first has glanced Southern NSW today with inconsistent 2-3ft sets on offer, and there are more trailing behind of a similar size. However they’ll only favour south swell magnets and these locations will be slightly wind affected with the southerly breeze. 

Elsewhere, expect very small surf. 

Next week (April 15 onwards)

No major changes to the long term outlook either. 

We’re looking at continuing small swells for the first half of next week, just minor energy generated by flukey systems on the peripheries of our swell windows, mainly small background S'ly swells from poorly aligned polar lows, and some minor E’ly swell in the north from the early stages of a developing ridge through the northern Tasman Sea. 

Exposed beaches will be lucky to reach 2ft across SE Qld early next week, whilst south swell magnets south of Byron should continue to rake in very sporadic 2-3ft sets if we’re very lucky. Local winds will ease right back under a troughy synoptic pattern, so conditions will be a little cleaner than over the weekend. 

There’s been quite a few changes in the model guidance ever the last 48 hours: Thursday morning saw the Easter easterly swell disappear completely.. and then this morning’s model update jumped it back up to 6ft! However the latest data is sitting right back where I had pegged the outlook on Wednesday, so right now there’s no reason to deviate from what we’ve been discussing since Monday.  

Synoptic wise, a broad Tasman high pressure system will develop mid-next week, and strengthen a broad ridge to the north, between it and a region of local pressure occupying the Tropical South Pacific and Coral Sea. This feature will remain slow moving for quite a few days - all the way through Easter in fact - and so we’re looking at long lived E’ly swell event for the entire East Coast, though it’ll be biggest in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. 

The early stages of this swell should start to show around Tuesday, though no major size is expected. In fact, although there’s some model guidance suggesting a large swell event for the Easter break, I don’t think we’ll see any lofty wave heights; the ridge is expected to max out at 30kts though its broad coverage should ensure a fully developed sea state, which should punch wave heights higher than modelled.

As such, I’m expecting a gradual building trend from Wednesday through Good Friday, plateauing through Easter Saturday, Sunday and maybe Monday with 4-5ft+ sets at open beaches, a little smaller running down the points, depending on exposure. Swell direction may be a touch north of east. The swell graph below is from the Gold Coast which shows the current model trend nicely.

There’s a chance for an upgrade but I’ll leave it until Monday to look more closely (give the recent topsy-turvy guidance); Easter is still a week away.

Early indications are that local winds will be light under a troughy pattern too, possibly SE across SE Qld but with no major strength at this stage. However it is still early days (ignore the model guidance winds at this stage, they're not good at long range specifics under locally weak synoptic patterns).

There’s a lot of funky activity on the long range charts (beyond Easter) that I’m not willing to speculate on, as the models are already not completely in sync at the moment. Nevertheless, there’s plenty to look forward in Monday’s notes. 

Have a great weekend!