South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th January)

Best Days: Looks like the never-ending easterly swell machine is about to get a reboot from the middle of the week onwards. Friday looks to be the pick of the forecast period with the best conditions. Plenty of exciting options in the long term outlook too.

Recap: There’s been hardly any swell across most coasts for the last few days, just a trickle of E/NE swell at exposed beaches that increased incrementally throughout SE Qld on Sunday and again today. Northerly winds have generally added further woes to the lack of surf, though they did finally ease back this morning. A long period S/SE groundswell pushed across Southern NSW on Sunday, and some beaches across the Mid North Coast reported anywhere up to 3-4ft late in the day, however most locations dipped out quite a bit, if not completely. This S/SE swell has again provided a smattering of infrequent waves to a handful of swell magnets today. 

This week (Jan 29 - Feb 2)

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First off: the winds. A stationary Tasman high will maintain moderate to almost fresh N/NE winds about the Mid North Coast this week up until Thursday, but we’ll see less strength north from Coffs, under a light to moderate E/NE flow. 

Therefore, there’s a chance for periods of reasonable lumpy/variable conditions at times across the Far North Coast and SE Qld region. 

As for surf, the current S/SE swell (patchy as it is) will fade through Tuesday - south swell magnets south of Byron still have some small potential for early Tuesday (as Southern NSW is still around 2-3ft this arvo) but based on the last few days of sporadic surf at best, I wouldn’t get too excited. 

Fortunately, the northern flank of the Tasman high will broaden and strengthen over the coming days, slowly building E’ly swells from a low point Tuesday morning (2ft open beaches) up to 3-4ft+ by Thursday, possibly holding in and around this size range into Friday. The upper end of this size range will be north from Byron to the Sunshine Coast (at exposed beaches, smaller down the points), with slightly smaller surf to the south of Ballina. 

Friday looks like the pick of the week. 

An advancing southerly change across Southern NSW late Thursday will stall across the Mid North Coast on Friday, pushing a trough of low pressure across Northern NSW and SE Qld and resulting in light variable winds at most coasts. 

In addition to the E’ly swell, Northern NSW (mainly Mid North Coast) will see a building S/SE tending SE swell from a fetch trailing the southerly change. This won’t be much bigger than the pre-existing E’ly swell but the combined nature of both swell trains could result in some solid 3-4ft+ bombs at a few locations - though most likely south from about Coffs (this S/SE swell will be smaller as you track north, and won’t really show in SE Qld).

Otherwise, just for the record, an intense Southern Ocean low will pass just south of Tasmania on Monday, though it looks poorly aligned within our swell window. The models have long period S’ly groundswell glancing our coast on Wednesday with peak swell periods in the 17-18 second range, but I don’t think there’ll be much size at most beaches - a small handful of reliable south swell magnets may pick up stray sets if we're super lucky.

Additionally, Friday’s notes mentioned a possible sub-tropical low developing NE of New Zealand this week. Unfortunately, it has been erased by the computer models over the weekend, so we can now effectively write it off completely as a swell source. 

This weekend (Feb 3 - 4)

The weekend looks potentially very fun at this stage as we finally see a return to typical summer winds and swells.

With the stalled southerly change lying across the Mid North Coast into Saturday, a building ridge of high pressure to the south will broaden an easterly flow through the central Tasman Sea. This will be best aimed toward Southern NSW but we’ll also see a spread to the north, mainly the Mid North Coast where 3-4ft sets are possible in the south, becoming smaller as you head north from about Port Macquarie or Coffs Harbour.

However, there won’t be any shortage of trade swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW this weekend, with a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea expected to generate plenty of E’ly swell around 3-4ft+. Winds will pick up from the E/SE thanks to to the influence of the ridge, and it’ll create problems at most beaches but outer SE Qld and semi-protected Northern NSW points will offer plenty of workable options both days. 

Next week (Feb 5 onwards)

I’m pleased to announce that our long term focus will remain entrenched in the tropics for the foreseeable future.

The monsoon trough is redeveloping across the top end, and expected to spin up a couple of tropical lows - and possible tropical cyclones - through the Coral Sea and South Pacific from about Sunday or Monday onwards for the following week or two. 

Or course, it’s still a very long time away, and the presence of a cyclone in this region does not necessarily guarantee a swell event of any kind for any coast. However, these patterns are slow moving so it’s shaping up to be an extended period of synoptic watching across the Coral and South Pacific Seas for signs of favourable swell generating systems. 

As a bare minimum, we’ll see persistent trade swells holding somewhere around 3-4ft mark for much of next week (again, open beaches, with smaller surf down the points). 

Additionally, as of the latest model runs, there's a suggestion we'll see a significant tropical cyclone track southwards along the eastern side of Fiji (and eventually out of the associated swell shadow) around the middle of next week, stalling north of New Zealand - which paints an exciting picture for a large E’ly groundswell in our region later next week and into the weekend.

But it’s still early days, and very likely that we’ll see significant changes to the model guidance with each successive update. 

See you Wednesday!