Just another three or four days of easterly swell to go, maybe a few more
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 14th January)
Best Days: Good waves all week in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with intermittent E'ly swells and variable breezes. Problematic N'ly winds all week south of Yamba.
Recap: What a weekend! Strong E’ly swells held in the 3-5ft range across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for most of Saturday and early Sunday (smaller south from about Coffs), and winds were generally favourable across many coasts with just a few patches of onshore breezes causing issues. Sunday afternoon saw a slight drop in size, which held into today though many beaches were still seeing occasional 4ft sets across exposed spots this morning, and conditions were good for the points under a moderate S’ly tending SE flow. Size is now slowly abating and winds are up from the SE.
Strong lines at Snapper Rocks on Sunday morning
This week (Jan 15 - 18)
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
It looks like we’re heading back to that previous synoptic pattern from a few weeks ago, with a slow moving Tasman high delivering light and variable tending onshore winds across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but fresh N/NE winds across the Mid North Coast.
As such it looks like a difficult week of waves south of Coffs Harbour.
A small S’ly swell reached Southern NSW this morning and should be pushing across the Lower Mid North Coast later today, and may provide a few glancing sets to remaining Northern NSW south swell magnets early Tuesday. However it was a flukey event and peaked quickly so don’t get your hopes up.
As for easterly swell, the weekend’s source (TC Mona) has gone, but we’re seeing replacement mid-range energy from a ridge through the Coral Sea. This ridge will slowly weaken from Tuesday onwards, leading to a gradual decline in size from this region from Wednesday onwards.
However, an easterly dip formed at the tail end of this fetch over the weekend, and has generated another round of slightly longer period E’ly swell that’ll arrive sometime around Tuesday afternoon, and rebuild into Wednesday, before easing at some point on Thursday, probably into the afternoon.
Set waves from this source will be much less consistent than what we saw over the weekend (which wasn't exactly very consistent either), though the underlying mid-range E/NE trade swell should fill in the gaps nicely.
Wednesday should see max surf size with an increase back into the 3-4ft range across exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with smaller surf south from about Yamba or Coffs. Surf size will also be a little smaller running down the points.
And keep in mind that the inconsistency of this somewhat long range swell means that in general, you’ll mainly be surfing smaller E/NE trade swell from the Coral Sea fetch, around 2-3ft across SE Qld with smaller surf from the source south of Ballina.
Local winds north from Yamba to the Sunshine Coast look like they’ll straddle the ‘problematic’ threshold all week, which means periods of moderate onshores and lumpy conditions, but also intermittent windows of light variable winds too. And just like we have seen over the last few weeks, there’ll probably be no rhyme nor reason to its schedule, with sporadic afternoon glass offs and occasional bouts of breezey morning sickness. Just keep a flexible outlook and you’ll pick up great waves.
To finish the week, wave heights from all sources will ease steadily on Friday with similar conditions persisting.
This weekend (Jan 19 - 20)
A stationary ridge through the Coral Sea should maintain 2ft of peaky trade swell across the Gold and Tweed Coasts this weekend, with bigger surf near 2-3ft on the Sunshine Coast but smaller surf south from Ballina.
Winds will swing to the north in all locations as a southerly change advances along the coast, reaching the Mid North Coast overnight Saturday and remaining coasts into Sunday.
No major south swell is expected in the lee of the southerly change (though a better S’ly swell is likely early next week in Northern NSW) so Sunday will probably just deliver small trade swells similar to Saturday, across the outer SE Qld and semi-exposed far Northern NSW points.
Next week (Jan 21 onwards)
The parent low to Sunday’s southerly change will track under Tasmania, though it’ll be poorly aligned and passing quickly through the swell window. Based on current model guidance, Monday may see a fleeting pulse of 3ft+ S’ly swell at south swell magnets south of Byron, but don’t get your hopes up.
Otherwise, there’s nothing major on the long term charts at this stage, just a chance for a developing trough off the North Coast early next week that could be a local swell source for much of NSW, and some passing fronts through the Southern Ocean providing small sideband southerly groundswell for Northern NSW.
Comments
Loving the consistency of these swells, even with sometimes iffy winds. Beats long small/flat periods that's for sure.
Thing I have noticed tho, is that a few places I've been frequenting over the last few months have been affected by backwash to varying degrees. This includes points and beachies a fair distance apart. Only thing I can think of is that the same swells are affecting a wide range of coastlines in the same way. Anyone found the same? I can cope with a bit of onshore, but backwash really messes with me..
By my count we’ll be heading into our 4th week of this east swell come tomorrow. Can recall the first glimpses on a small Xmas day surf and it was definitely present Boxing Day. Unbelievable run!
Xmas/boxing was Sth swell wasn't it?
nah, that was the start of it.
to be honest, I'll be glad to see the back of it. Apart from Sunday, which was amazing, it's been a drab and unending choice between onshore close-outs, really crappy sand free points or ferocious crowds at the few quality spots.
I could have spent a week at Macaronis with the money I've spent on fuel driving around looking for somewhere to surf that was half decent and not a total zoo.
I want Huey to wipe the slate clean.
It's ranged from surfable-good everyday with a few days pumping.
A lot better than a flat spell.
I'll give you one day pumping- Sunday.
the rest has driven most people I'm talking to to distraction.
mate of mine who had a messy divorce and ended up in Lismore was driving around the other day in a state of near despair.
Sure, there have been a couple of spots working.
pretty low ROI though for 3 weeks of E swell.
everyones perspective is different though.
Stoked you've been getting a few LD.
Yes Sunday a few hours of respite from these horrendous n/ne onshore. Now we have no banks, seaweed and bluebottles, just to add insult to injury. This is the most unremarkable spring/summer. Thank dog I have a pool (salt water) to get relief in, at least I can lay in the pool and look at the ocean, all the rest is in the mind.......
Freeride- glad you had a good one Sunday. Was noting your distain throughout this swell and thinking of the spots I’d be hitting up in your hood. I’m guessing they were the over crowded ones. Surprising as
I thought your stretch would’ve had heaps of nice options or at least windows of gold.
I’ve been similar to lostdoggy. Sure beats flat or tiny and northerly.
See what the future holds.
funny isn't it......perception is everything.
options close by are semi-closeout beachies, semi-crowded, or sand starved points breaking like close-out beachies.
or doing battle at very crowded back beaches.
Sat I had the weirdest, most frustrating, kookifying surf ever at my local point.
Sunday morning I got a wave that was probably the best I'd ridden in the last 18months.
The difference between that and the two pumps and a closeout reo surfs I'd been having was profound.
When I was a kid I'd catch under-sized bream all day every day and be stoked as hell.
But that doesn't light me up now like a 10kilo jew.
Those closeout beachies are under-sized bream.
One good wave, a really good wave is a stoke of a whole different dimension.
Back to semi close outs this morning.
Warm blue water. First world problems.
Too right. Perspective makes a big difference.
I'm coming off a bit of an underwhelming 2018 surf wise for sure on account of injuries, illness, commitments and the rest, hence why my perspective of this recent run is on the rosier side.
The big windy east swell we had at the beginning of spring had obliterated our banks and this recent run has done a good job of filling those massive holes in.
This morning was stellar. As good as Sunday only better shape and more makeable.
Whilst I totally agree with the sentiment and these play waves often feel like exercising:
I cant really chime in too hard at the moment. Believe me , I’d love to be able to unload on the conditions and how unmemorable most sessions are amongst them , but after playing around this morning in the beautiful Pacific Ocean at its prettiest with blue sea and sky , crystal water over white sand all under a friendly sun shining on my shoulders, it’s an ask to start whinging about it all.Fuck , I truly , truly miss some quality waves though. The 8 second period is like dry humping in jeans.
I remember coming back from a few months in the UK surfing Bournemouth in the English channel.
the most cold, grey, miserable slop imaginable.
Coming from that, 2ft howling onshore nor-east days were a joy.
Unfortunately, that wore off.
stoked you are getting them.
I’m getting fuck all , just pretty days.
Launched the Seawok for a massive haul of zero fish yesterday in the nicest looking water you’ll seee. Missed the tide though . Just dragging a couple of lures around blindly to give it a run.
Went for a dive in the arvo and saw a GT hanging out with a spangled emporer. You’d never see those fish hanging out anywhere else . It was like the only two tropical fish recognised they were the odd fish out and formed a mini - school to ward off homesickness. Swear I saw a couple of queenies getting around too. You ever catch them up your way ?
Very Finding Nemoesque.
no queenies or spanglies but the juvenile GT's are fucking thick here sometimes.
I don't like them. They fight dirty and take all my tailor lures when fishing light.
Surfed every day over the last few weeks.
Everyone disappears as soon as there’s a bit of onshore or it’s over 2 foot round here. Plenty of fun rip bowls all up and down my stretch, wouldn’t mind a few barrels tho. Copped a few bluey stings but that’s nothing a hot shower can’t fix.
Yep the last few weeks have been super fun but nothing of real quality. Surfed Tos on Sunday morning & the size was there but no bazzas to be had. I’m looking forward to some quality point waves over the next couple of months seems like forever since they broke with some vigour.... edit maybe just getting picky after surfing so much
The sand is starting to fill into the right places on the GC though. Who knows how long it would have taken without the constant swell source. Could have been a wasted season...
Nice solid sets at sunshine. Spot on forecast. A bit bumpy and tricky but waves of consequence. Almost as much fun as landing a norwest blowy!
Having a great time down around byron. Surfed decent to good waves almost everyday for weeks. Not crowded at all either! Blueys scared everyone off. Not as good now though, the onshore and jellys have given way to the crowd.
Buoy data showing a small but distinct kick in E'ly swell from early Tuesday arvo into the evening and overnight. So, with light winds across the coast, everywhere should be doing a slightly bigger version of what it was doing yesterday.
Heck, winds are even light W'ly on the Sunny Coast too! I don't wanna hear any whinging north of Moreton today.
Ben I've got a vague idea of how to interpret these wave spectrum graphs, I'm presuming its a snapshot of the range of wave periods in a given swell at certain times? What is the PSD m2s?
Waves were good today.... 1st time this yr. Nothing better than watching people get slotted while you work...
I'd say it felt fairly similar size wise. Due to overnight persistent northerlies quality was way down on yesterday. Yesterday was one of those rare beach break mornings where everything came together.
Was still a bit messy when I checked so went and got a coffee.
Came back, and it was real clean and some hefty ones. Got out at 7.30 and some were really slabbing.
By 8 the wind swung just enough to ruin it again.
Gotta take advantage of those windows.
sigh.....well someone has to do it and it might as well be me.
As Solitude observed, size same as yesterday, northerly already ruining it.
Just a bit more longer line, making beach breaks closeout and too small and straight for points, plus northerly is onshore there.
I was about to do battle in onshore closeouts when I had a little chat with the SLSC drone operator. He told me 2 whites were observed preying on a mother and baby dolphin yesterday.
I checked a couple of spots and came home dry.
There is no end to this northerly pattern. It will go right through summer. Sub-tropical NSW is dead and baking.
So, in a word: Fuck You Huey and the donkey you rode in on.
Surfing a little wedge yesterday with a handful of others when the shark chopper appeared and started circling a couple of hundred metres outside of us. Nobody said anything and everyone was pretty relaxed about it all.
Then the chopper came in closer and started circling straight above us at quite an angle . Pretty unambiguous message there. Still , no one made a move to shore . We had a little joke about the situation but no one seemed intent to go in .
First set that came through and I was gone. Then the next bloke , and the next.....
Fuck that .
I’ve seen those things swimming around out there . You really don’t want to find one underneath you.
Though you’ve got to love the stoic ( crazy ) attitude of everyone in the line up. Been quite a while since a soccer march kept playing despite a tiger roaming the field,and I can’t really remember the last time a tennis match continued without regard for the grizzly bear on the court. Part of what makes surfing so good.
I'm pulling the flathead gear out of the shed and pretending it's October.
Had all my pelagic LBG gear ready to go but the cold water has put the kybosh on that.
I dived a back creek yesterday and saw the largest flathead I’ve ever seen . Laying in a sandy gutter between rocks with a half dozen little males hanging around her. Probably around 30 flathead lying in a 20 metre section of creek.
Nice Jack getting around too. The arvo incoming just turns everything on . The last couple of hours when that EAC floods inshore flicks the switch and it looks like a different coast. Shame the wind fucks most options.
Surf terrible today.
Morning sickness, wobbly, wrong tide, inconsistent ... but offshore! And on a good sandbank, some runners and fun!
Whinging and worrying manifest what you don't want.
Unreal waves once again. Yesterday was pumping, so was this morning. Wind came up a bit from the N during today's session (yesterday remained glassy the whole time) but didn't spoil things where I was. Well overhead sets, though very inconsistent, easy 3-4ft.
Interesting though, as per Solidtude's observations, I couldn't pick much of a size difference between yesterday and today, despite buoy data suggesting the swell was a little stronger this morning. However I broke the golden rule of surf observations (in this regard) and surfed different beaches both days.. so I can't be totally sure.
Also, lots of marine life in the water. A pack of 10-15 dolphins cruised through the lineup, a large stingray (or manta ray? I can't tell the difference) tracked below me for a while, and I reckon I saw a small shark just beyond the lineup too, though it was heading away from me.
Yep great waves at my corner of the Tweed for the last several days. Yesterday was the standout, pumping glassy green overhead barrels at one back beach. This morning was similar but a touch straighter, not as clean but still offshore. I say keep it going Huey.
Although there's no proper scientific basis, one thing to remember about this extended period of stable weather is that with each passing day, we're drawing closer to a total shellacking by a violent weather system of some description (rain, wind, t'storms, etc).
So, make hay while the sun shines.
It's been my best summer of waves in a long time.
Bloody dry atm.
Where are all the evening storms?
Wrong synoptic pattern. Too stable, not enough moisture.
Give it a few weeks...
Guesstimate or are you tracking something?
I'm hitting the MNC on 3/2 for a week and the +384 charts (effective date of 30/1) on today's run don't look terrible. I'm seeing a breakdown of the trade belt next week and some more dynamic weather for the EOM. Anyhow will be closely following these notes over the coming weeks...
Guesstimate at the moment (though will look at the charts more closely this arvo).
SC was super fun this morning. 3 - sometimes 4ft, offshore winds, a tad straight but 25% were sitting up nicely. Watched on as quite a few in the line-up scored almond-shaped barrels. As close to pumping as it gets without actuallly being pumping. Keen on a size decrease, though. Craving a session on my mini mal but can’t justify it when the beaches are working so well!
Now I’ve gone and done it.
In a fit of heat induced madness I started watching surfing videos on YouTube and am currently suffering from a surf denied version of blue balls.
Lord give me strength.....and a 4-6 foot wall to belt.
Please ?
sounds like the Tweed Coast and maybe the sunny coast have been the beneficiaries of this pattern, for the most part.
If this is a symptom of climate change: this unending northerly hot dry pattern extending right through summer then I'll take a refund.
I see this pattern (minus the surf) extending right through Jan.
And no monsoonal break in sight.
edit: likely a ten day stretch of Northerlies ahead.
Today was the first half decent morning since October, so no, not the Sunny Coast.
Worst summer in years off the back of a generally terrible 2018. Oh well more surf trips this year.
I agree Sprout, we don't have a snapper or d'bah to turn the last 2 month's mush into something fun
Irnoically, Snapper and D'Bah have been two of the more average Gold Coast options for the last few months.
Just an anecdote..
From memory when I moved here at the end of 2012 it was like this - hot, dry and northerly every day - continued right through Jan and I was looking for a refund.
Then we got blitzed on Australia Day weekend, my esky filled up in the backyard overnight... I'd never seen anything like it!
Huey might be saving himself to wash out our long weekend again.
Agree, this has happened before.Expecting a very wet end to Summer and continuing into Autumn............March\April a washout.