South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th January)

Best Days: Entire period: sustained run of E'ly swells, pulsing late Thurs/Fri/Sat, and then again early-mid next week. Long period S'ly groundswell across Northern NSW on Wed too. 

Recap: Weekend wave heights came close to, but ultimately near the bottom end of forecast expectations, 4-5ft at exposed Sunny Coast beaches (no + sets), 4ft on the Gold and Tweed Coasts (against the forecast of 4-5ft ), grading smaller south from Byron to 3ft+ across the Mid North Coast. In most areas, winds were either light and variable, or light to moderate onshore, and with no discernible wind trend (aside for the Mid North Coast, which saw freshening N’lies Saturday and early Sunday ahead of a S’ly change), there were pockets of very fun waves across many stretches of coast. Wave heights eased a little today but it’s still managing 3-4ft across SE Qld, grading to about 2-3ft across the Mid North Coast, which is also seeing a small concurrent SE swell from a stalled trough related to Sunday’s change. Todays winds have been similar to the weekend, though the onshore has been fractionally stronger, however it’s worth pointing out that up until 4pm this afternoon, average wind speeds across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts maxed out at 13kts - so it’s not terribly strong. 

This week (Jan 8 - 11)

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Feels like we’re about to see Groundhog Day for a little while longer yet, with this same pattern of easterly swells and light variable tending light to moderate onshore winds forecast to persist across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. 

After a couple of brief days of respite, the Mid North Coast will resume freshening N/NE tending N’ly winds Tuesday and Wednesday before it temporarily abates from Thursday onwards. 

As for swell, the current trade regime will persist mid-week though at slightly smaller size than what we’ve seen over the last few days. Exposed SE Qld beaches should maintain 3ft+ sets (smaller running down the points) with decreasing wave heights as you head south from Byron Bay.

We’ve actually got an interesting southerly groundswell on the way for next few days too. A deep Southern Ocean low has generated a long period S’ly event that’s just pushing into Tasmanian coasts as we speak, and its leading edge will reach the lower Mid North Coast very late Tuesday, building overnight and into Wednesday across remaining south swell magnets south from Byron Bay.  

This swell will exhibit long swell periods (18-19 seconds) that’ll exaggerate wave heights at reliable south swell magnets, somewhere around 3-4ft+. Note: the wave model (as per usual) is not picking up this swell very well, so my estimate is significantly above the guidance. 

It's also worth pointing out that these kinds of flukey long range south swells often don't light up every beach (even those facing south), so if you don't see the results you expect at your local swell magnet, check a few other spots to see how they are faring. Wave heights will ease from this source into Thursday.

Elsewhere, and unfortunately we’ve had a downgrade in estimated surf size from TC Mona, out near Fiji - the cyclone hasn’t quite developed as much as was estimated on Friday.

However, we’ll still see a new E’ly swell fill in on Thursday afternoon (above the pre-existing trade swell, and the easing S’ly groundswell), and should reach a peak into Friday with inconsistent sets in the 3-5ft range across exposed beaches, mainly Northern NSW but also across northern ends of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts (a little smaller running down the points).

Light variable winds and sea breeze are expected in all areas to finish the week - including the Mid North Coast - so there’ll be great waves right across the entire coast, and it’s well worth booking in a couple of sessions. 

This weekend (Jan 12 - 13)

We’re shaping up to see a fun weekend off waves, with steady E’ly swells from TC Mona gradually easing from an inconsistent 3-5ft to 3-4ft from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. 

This easterly swell will be in addition to a small pulse of S’ly swell across Northern NSW (on Saturday), originating from a broad but ultimately disjointed series of Southern Ocean lows passing south of Tasmania mid-week. The south swell should provide 2-3ft sets to south swell magnets south of Byron Bay.

Winds look good all weekend across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW under a weak pressure gradient, but only Saturday looks like being beneficial for the Mid North Coast, with Sunday expected to see a renewal of N’ly winds as a high develops in the Tasman Sea. 

Next week (Jan 14 onwards)

A broad region of troughiness near Fiji all week - hosting the remnants of easing (by this time) ex-TC Mona is modelled to spawn a new tropical depression over the weekend, that looks like being a good source of E’ly groundswell next week. The easterly flow will stretch way back out into the South Pacific (see chart below) that'll ensure we see some form of easterly swell all of next week. 

Additionally, a building ridge through the Coral Sea will generate some local secondary trade swell for SE Qld. 

Wave heights should increase steadily into the 3-5ft range at exposed coasts by Wednesday (a little smaller prior to this), however once again it appears that we’ll see problematic N/NE winds across the Mid North Coast. Winds will be lighter throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW but the latest modelling suggests it may be a touch stronger than what we’ve seen recently. 

In any case, there’s no sign of any let up in the easterly swell regime, and there’s always a chance that there’ll be pockets of favourable winds across most coasts, so it’s looking like we’ll all be very active for the next couple of weeks. 

Elsewhere, and a strong front passing south of Tasmania on Saturday will also generate a fresh though brief S’ly swell for Northern NSW early next week too, whilst lingering troughiness through the southern Tasman Sea should contribute small SE swells for Northern NSW around the same time.

See you Wednesday!