South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 4th January)

Best Days: Entire period: plenty of E/NE swells, very solid over the weekend, with an even bigger E'ly groundswell next Thursday. Generally OK winds in most areas, except Saturday south from Coffs. 

Recap: We’ve seen steady trade swells over the last few days around 3-4ft across SE Qld and Northern NSW, with smaller surf south from Yamba. A small southerly swell was on offer at south facing beaches south of Byron too. This afternoon saw wave heights build a little more across SE Qld, assisted with a kick in E/NE swell exhibiting longer swell periods around 12-13 seconds, originating (indirectly) from TC Penny. The Tweed buoy (below) shows this increase nicely. Set waves are now pushing 3-5ft across Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches and are a little better defined. 

Long lines at Currumbin this evening

Strong sets at Burleigh this evening

This weekend (Jan 5 - 6)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

As was mentioned in Wednesday’s notes, TC Penny is not a direct swell producer for our region.

Sure, it’s an impressive system and ticks many boxes - strong supporting ridge to the south, slowly moving, and nicely positioned in our NE swell window - however the strongest winds are aimed into the Central Qld coast, and our swell window is receiving mainly an incoming spread of sideband energy from the E’ly fetch below the TC Penny, rather than from the much smaller, narrowed fetch around its core. As such, it is an indirect source of swell, albeit good quality and long-lived. 

Therefore, we have to be careful in size estimations from this source (being predominantly sourced from an slightly off-axis ridge), and so I have slightly pulled wave heights for the weekend from Wednesday's notes. Though, by and large, surf conditions will remain similar as to was described in Wednesday’s notes, especially thanks to generally light winds (except the Mid North Coast on Saturday). 

The Sunshine, Gold and Tweed Coasts will pick up the most size over the weekend, due to the dominant swell direction being E/NE, and surf size will gradually become smaller as you head south from Byron. Exposed locations across the Sunshine Coast should see strong though inconsistent 4-5ft+ sets, whilst we’re looking at 4-5ft surf across the Gold and Tweed Coasts then 4ft surf across the Northern Rivers, grading to 3-4ft across the Mid North Coast. 

There’s no distinct trend evident for the weekend, thanks to the slow moving nature of the swell source, so expect both lully and active periods at times (perhaps assistant on the more favourable parts of the tide). Expect smaller waves running down the various points and other protected locations. 

Winds look pretty good in many regions this weekend too. Saturday morning should see light variable conditions everywhere from SE Qld down to about Coffs, where we’ll be under the influence of freshening N’ly tending N/NE winds from the get-go (especially around Port Macquarie). In to the afternoon, moderate to fresh NE winds will envelop the Northern NSW coast up to about Byron but everywhere north from the border should see light to moderate (onshore) winds and very workable conditions. 

Similar winds are expected on Sunday (as per Saturday) across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

Across the Mid North Coast, a slowly advancing trough will bring about a southerly change early-mid morning to Port Macquarie, reaching Coffs Harbour mid-afternoon, before petering out south of Yamba into the evening. N’ly tending NW winds will precede a period of light variable winds ahead of the change. 

As such there should be a small window of opportunity across parts of the Mid North Coast, however we’ll see good, strong swells elsewhere all weekend, with most of SE Qld looking like delivering very nice waves.  

Next week (Jan 7 onwards)

TC Penny will push close to the Central Qld coast early next week, and the ridge to the south will marginally ease, though it’ll maintain plenty of E’ly swell across the coast through the first half of the week thanks to support from a secondary region of development south of Fiji, associated with newly developed TC Mona (just north of Fiji).

At this stage, ballpark fluctuating size anywhere in the 3-4ft+ range across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW’s exposed coasts (smaller down the points) from Monday through Wednesday, grading to 3ft+ across the Mid North Coast. This period should see similar winds to the weekend throughout SE Qld, though the Mid North Coast may see freshening N'lies under the influence of a new Tasman high.

TC Mona’s track has been improved in the latest model runs, whereby it’s now expected to track south of Fiji and retrograde westward, nicely aligned within our swell window. This is expected to generate a strong E’ly groundswell arriving around Thursday with sets pushing 5-6ft+ at most exposed coasts (again, smaller running down the points). Given the evolution of the models in recent days, a further small upgrade can't be ruled out either. 

Although TC Mona will eventually push into the Coral Sea, squeezing the pressure gradient between it and a Tasman high (and freshening SE winds across the region into Friday), the peak of the swell event on Thursday is expected to coincide with light winds. As such it’s looking like a great day of large surf and light winds across most regions. Winds should ease across the Mid North Coast though they will remain out of the north.

The long term outlook from this region maintains a broad ridge through the Tasman Sea which suggests moderate easterly swells will persist right through next weekend too. 

Looking elsewhere, and a powerful but very low latitude Southern Ocean low pressure system pushing south of Tasmania later this weekend will set up an inconsistent long period S’ly groundswell, arriving Tuesday (across the Mid North Coast), and peaking later very late int he day or perhaps early Wednesday across remaining Northern NSW coasts. Despite the small ocean swell size, the very large periods with the leading edge (18-19 seconds) should help to amplify surf size and a handful of reliable south swell south of Byron could see 3-4ft+ sets. 

So, that’s about it - waves from just about everywhere throughout the forecast period, and plenty of good windows of opportunity.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!