South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 10th September)

Best Days: Tues: early window of light winds, decent mix of S'ly (biggest in Northern NSW) and E'ly swell. Wed: peaky mix of swells, possible window of light NW winds early though N'lies are expected to cause problems. 

Recap: A mix of NE, E/SE and E’ly swells provided 2-3ft waves across Northern NSW over the weekend, with slightly smaller surf throughout SE Qld (north of the southern Gold Coast). Southerly winds pushed up the Mid North Coast on Saturday with northerly winds ahead of it, but we’ve seen light W’ly winds Sunday morning and this morning, ahead of developing SSE winds throughout the day (moderate Sunday afternoon, fresh to strong this afternoon). The NE and E/SE swells disappeared for today but the long range E’ly well has persisted with peaky 2ft+ sets at open beaches. This afternoon we’ve also seen a new S’ly groundswell push through the Mid North Coast earlier than expected (Friday’s notes mentioned Tuesday), originating from a strong frontal passage below Tasmania yesterday. Set waves are now a strong 3ft+ at south facing beaches south from Coffs.  

Peaky E'ly swell at D'Bah this morning

This week (Sep 11 - 14)

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I didn’t get a chance over the weekend to follow the model upgrades for the south swell, which is now pushing into the coast much earlier than expected thanks to the responsible front pushing much further north through the lower Tasman Sea than Friday’s models anticipated. 

This swell will reach a peak overnight and will trend down into Tuesday, and we’ll see the most size through Northern NSW with 4ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron (smaller elsewhere). The swell direction isn’t ideally positioned for SE Qld, but exposed northern ends should still pick up occasional 2-3ft sets, before size eases through the day. The outer points will however be much smaller in size, around 1-2ft and there’ll be lengthy breaks between the sets. 

Also in the mix over the next few days will be a small long range E’ly swell generated by a broad E’ly fetch way out SE of Tahiti this time last week. It’s currently producing occasional 2ft+ sets up and down the coast and should persist through much of this week n a similar size range - making up for the lack of size at protected SE Qld points (though once again, very inconsistent). 

Wednesday has an interesting curveball being thrown our way. The front responsible for today’s south swell is expected to form a secondary low pressure centre off New Zealand’s West Coast today, at about South Coast (NSW) latitudes, before a front slingshots around the low and produces a nice SE swell for Northern NSW.

Raw model guidance doesn’t suggest we’ll see much from this source, but it’s hard to ignore these small little captured fetches as they often perform better than the models expect. As such I’m going to go out on a limb and call occasional 3ft+ sets south from Byron, with smaller 2ft+ sets mixing in with the E’ly swell across SE Qld. This may produce the odd bigger bomb at exposed northern ends north of the border. 

As for conditions, Tuesday is your best day with mainly light conditions in the morning and afternoon sea breezes, perhaps a lingering S’ly flow across exposed beaches from Byron to the Sunshine Coast. 

However, Wednesday thru’ Friday will be generally ruined by freshening northerlies. They won’t be too strong north of Ballina, but possibly just enough to cause a few issues at the points - so you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered northern end. South from Yamba, we could see 12-15kts+ for the rest of the week, which isn’t very promising for surf quality. 

There will be a small lingering E’ly swell until the end of the week though, so if you’ve got the flexibility to work around brief window of lighter winds, it’ll be worth scouting out a protected location. 

This weekend (Sep 15 - 16)

Saturday looks pretty average with small residual swells from a couple of sources, that are unlikely to provide any great surfing opportunities across the region, especially under the influence of a persistent northerly.

Sunday has strong new S’ly swell on the cards though model guidance also has a building ridge that’s expected to drive fresh SE winds into the region. As such, it’s hard to get excited about the weekend’s surf right now. More on Wednesday.

Next week (Sep 17 onwards)

There’s nothing to pin down precisely at this stage, but the broad overview suggests a redeveloping trade flow through the Northern Tasman and South Pacific that could give rise to an extended period of E’ly swells through the second half of next week. We’ll also see plenty of south swell on Monday (across Northern NSW) from a deep Southern Ocean passing Tasmania on Saturday. More on this in Wednesday’s update.