South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st December)

Best Days: Sun: window of good winds possible across the Mid North Coast, more likely in the lunch/arvo period. Mon: tricky winds but looking OK in the Far North and maybe SE Qld regions. Tues/Wed/Thurs: punchy swell combo with generally good winds. 

Recap: Freshening NE winds have created bumpy conditions over the last few days, though SE Qld hasn’t seen as much wind strength so conditions have been workable (10-15kts, compared to 15-20kts south from Byron). Wave heights have slowly increased from the east with sets now around 3ft+ at some exposed locations. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl. 

This weekend (Dec 2nd - 3rd)

No real changes to the weekend forecast - we’ll see steady E’ly swells both days (3ft+ across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, slightly smaller to the south), but freshening N/NE winds will ruin conditions at many beaches. 

The local fetch will generate some additional short range NE swell for all coasts - just a foot or so in the north, but a couple of feet or more across the Mid North Coast. 

The Mid North Coast will see the most strength in the local wind, with potentially 25-30kts at times both days - perhaps backing off mid-late morning Sunday onwards, as a trough crosses the Southern NSW coast. In fact variable winds are now likely across the Lower Mid North Coast, and a S’ly change will probably nose in around dinnertime.

If you plan on capitalising on these better winds across the Mid North Coast on Sunday, head as far south as you can - which will increase your chances of scoring the best conditions (Seal Rocks through Port Mac the pick). It’ll take a few hours for the northerly wobble to subside though; fortunately there’ll be a decent undercurrent of E’ly swell even as the NE wind swell eases back. 

Even though the weekend’s conditions will be less gusty across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts, any strength of the devil wind (N/NE) will cause problems across most beaches, and there’s barely a handful of locations offering shelter from this direction. So keep your expectations low both days. 

Next week (Dec 4th onwards)

Jeez, next week is still looking really dynamic. 

A Tasman Low will form east of Tasmania on Sunday, driving a southerly change across the NSW coast. It’s expected to stall across parts of the Northern Rivers on Monday, with S/SE winds to its south (i.e. Seal Rocks through Port Mac and Coffs, to maybe Yamba), variable winds in Far Northern NSW and then possibly a light lingering N/NE flow from somewhere in Far Northern NSW thru’ SE Qld. 

So, it’s hard to quantify the surf outlook for Monday because of the variable conditions. Most coasts have some kind of threat of poor surface conditions, but by the same token, isolated patches of favourable winds can’t be discounted. 

As for swell, there’ll still be a healthy undercurrent of E’ly swell in the 3ft+ range, some small NE swell and a mid range S’ly swell from Sunday’s Tasman Low. Plus some short range SE energy from the local fetch developing overnight Sunday. 

Tuesday is where it gets really funky. 

The lingering North Coast surface trough will receive a moisture injection from the tropics, and a southward shift plus an intensification will strengthen NE winds through our immediate swell window. However, it looks like this will be mainly aimed south of our region, spending only a brief time in our swell window. 

However, there’s also a positive aspect to this - winds will swing NW as the trough draws southward, and this will occur while the NE fetch is still off our coast. This should deliver regions of very good beachbreaks.

So, I am hoping that we see a window on Tuesday where winds veer offshore and the NE swell reaches a peak (tying in with 3ft of underlying trade swell, and some leftover SE and S’ly swell too). The Mid North Coast is on target for (1) the most size from this NE swell, and (2) a better chance fort the offshores to develop - unfortunately, SE Qld will remain under a weak pressure gradient and could see a light lingering N’ly all day. 

At this stage, we’re looking at a peak around 3-5ft across the Mid North Coast, with SE Qld seeing the least amount of size, probably 3-4ft (and a little more E in the swell direction). 

This NE thru' E/NE swell will then ease steadily through Wednesday with generally light winds. Another day worth flagging in the diary for some decent peaky beachies. 

But! It won’t all be over then…. 

This forecast period (Mon thru’ Wed) will predominantly see swells generated in the Tasman Sea. Whilst this is all going on, other parts of our swell window will remain active:

1. The trough responsible for the Mon S’ly swell will linger across the Southern Tasman Sea, generating a small S/SE swell for Northern NSW through the middle of the week.
2. A pair of E’ly dips north of New Zealand will for a broad E’ly fetch, and will generate some very useful E/NE swell for the entire East Coast, due to hold out from Wed thru’ Thurs, maybe Fri around 3-4ft+. 
3. The Tues/Wed deepening trough will probably evolve into a new Tasman Low east of Bass Strait on Wed/Thurs, generating a fresh S’ly swell for Thurs/Fri across Northern NSW (size as yet unsure).
4. A small TC is possible around the Solomons mid-late next week, though at this stage it’s unlikely to be a swell producer.

So, did ya get all of that?

Short version: stacks of swell potential for the long term, from every angle of our swell window. 


Have a great weekend! See you Monday.