South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 31st May)

Best Days: No great days in general, though the Gold Coast points will offer a period of small clean waves from later Thursday thru' Sunday. 

Recap: Small, inconsistent residual E'ly swell across SE Qld, tiny surf eslewhere though building from the south later today across the Mid North Coast. 

Still some small residual E'ly lines across the Tweed Coast this afternoon (via our Cabarita surfcam)

This week (Tues 30th - Fri 2nd)

No major changes to the next few days. A gusty southerly fetch trailing a cold front will occupy the entire eastern half of the Tasman Sea for the next few days. In fact, by Thursday afternoon this fetch will stretch from southern Tasmanian latitudes right up to New Caledonia - a very impressive distance.

Unfortunately, it’ll hold at strength through the period, meaning the only surfable locations will be protected southern corners. Southern Qld points will offer the cleanest conditions - however the initial short period and acute southerly direction will keep surf size on the small side (in actual fact, the bulk fetch will be S/SW, making it even less favourably aligned for SE Qld beaches).

Nevertheless, given the lack of surfing options due to these gusty conditions, the outer Gold Coast points will probably be the pick of the region, offering building swells into the 2ft+ range by Thursday afternoon and holding into Friday, inconsistent at times and certainly not up to the quality we have seen in recent weeks of easterly swells events. Everywhere else will be wind affected. 

I still think there’s a chance for isolated pockets of SW or even W/SW winds at dawn both mornings but this will be confined to a handful of venues at best. I certainly wouldn’t be booking any flexi-time for the next few days.

For reference, south facing beaches in Northern NSW (south of Byron) should see wind affected sets around the 5-6ft mark, with smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure.

This weekend (Sat 3rd - Sun 4th)

I’m now a little less keen on Saturday’s surf prospects, than I was when I issued Monday’s notes. 

Although I’ve always been expecting a lengthy stint of windy, short range swells throughout this period, the start of the weekend had the possibility of a slightly bigger, longer period S/SE pulse, originating from the core Tasman Low undergoing an intensification through Thursday as it tracked north.

This development has been slightly weakened in the latest model runs.

Whilst the fetch is expected to remain broad, overall wind speeds will be mainly around the 30kt mark and this will by and large reduce prospective swell periods by a couple of seconds. It’ll also smooth out any peak in new energy, blending the time frame from Thursday afternoon thru’ Saturday into one long event of mediocrity, rather than providing a noticeable ‘kick’ from a new event at a particular point in time. 

Anyway, Saturday should see slightly larger surf than Friday, around 6ft+ at south facing beaches south Byron, and smaller elsewhere with less southerly exposure. And it’ll still be very windy out of the southern quadrant so only protected locations will be surfable. Expect a steady drop in size and winds (from the same direction) into Sunday. 

The SE Qld region should pick up some good waves across the outer points on Saturday; somewhere around 2-3ft but with a little less oomph than I was expecting on Monday. Exposed spots will be bigger, but blown out.

Surf size will then ease in size into Sunday with a slowly moderating southerly airstream. 

Let’s take a closer look on Friday but for now I’m really not expecting the weekend to light up the coast with anything amazing.

Next week (Mon 5th onwards)

Sunday’s easing trend from the south will continue through Monday. 

A small but strong polar low passing south of Tasmania on Friday may set up a minor south swell for Northern NSW early next week, and its latter incarnation off New Zealand’s South Island (West Coast) may kick up a small SE thru’ E/SE swell at points throughout the middle to later part of next week (the model data isn’t strong at the moment, so confidence isn’t high).

Otherwise, we’re looking at a cold outbreak across the eastern states next week, though this could be positioned anywhere between NSW/Vic and SA - of which the resulting synoptic flow across the Tasman Sea could tip in any direction. There’s no suggestion for any major swell generating developments  at this point in time so let’s have a closer look on Friday.