South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st March)

Best Days: Good waves most days - Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun, peaky beachies with variable winds. Mon AM with early offshores but smaller surf. Tues onwards: series of solid SE swells, possibly a solid E'ly swell later next week.

Recap: It’s been a mixed bag across the SE Qld and Northern NSW region over the last few days. Our anticipated trade swell built more rapidly than forecast, but came in around size expectations with 2-3ft sets across most coasts through Tuesday. It’s held in and around the 2-3ft mark today, though there have been significant fluctuations through the tidal range (which is quite large at the moment). And whilst some regions have seen variable winds and manageable conditions, other regions have picked up fresh onshores at times. This is typical of the broader troughy pattern across the region, and wasn’t very well articulated in Monday’s notes (sorry!). However there have been pockets of unreal waves at times (see surfcam stills below from Currumbin yesterday, and Cabarita today).

This week (Feb 28th - Mar 3rd)

The current E'ly swell is largely the byproduct of a broad ridge between a high pressure system in the south-eastern Tasman Sea and a broad tropical depression across the Coral Sea and Tropical South Pacific. Whilst wind speeds aren’t terribly strong, the fetch width is considerable and we’re seeing plenty of waves across the entire East Coast as a result. 

Model guidance still has a peak in size for tomorrow, which is plausible - however I think the models are a little skewed at the moment. They’ve undercalled the last few days, and tomorrow are combining two swell trains out of the east and north-east, which I think is slightly inflating prospective surf size, if only a smidge.

But, in the absence of any other quantifiable data (and with the E’ly fetch looking pretty robust for the last few days), it’s still looking like a fun day of waves on Thursday with 3ft+ sets across most coasts, and slightly smaller surf running down the points. Winds should be light and variable (which means any possible direction - including onshore), but generally offering OK surface conditions. Don't be surprised if there's a few lully periods at times, this is typical of trade swell patterns with big tidal ranges. 

A broad trough is now developing along the coastal margin and this has shifted the head of the easterly fetch further east, away from the coast. As such we can expect a slow decrease in size through Friday, though not much. In fact a small region of slightly stronger E’ly winds south of New Caledonia are expected to retrograde westwards during Thursday and this may tip the balance in favour of a mild increase later Friday and into Saturday, against model guidance (which flatlines the surf around 2-3ft during this period). 

Regardless, we should see similarly light variable winds on Friday - again, there is certainly a good chance it’ll be onshore at times - but most regions should offer reasonable conditions and plenty of fun peaky surf in and around the 2-3ft+ mark. Keep an eye out for that possble slight pulse through Friday afternoon.  

This weekend (Mar 4th - 5th)

The broad ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea will weaken slowly through the weekend.

However, our weekend’s surf will be generated by fetch activity on Thursday and Friday, and it’s still expected to be reasonably active during this period. 

A slow easing trend is possible both days - more so in consistency than size - but I’m reasonably confident that the minor pulse evident later Friday will hold into Saturday with 2-3ft+ sets across most coasts, and light variable winds keeping conditions clean. 

On Sunday, surf size will peg down a notch and winds - although light in strength - will probably swing to the northern quadrant following a variable period early. So, let’s aim for tidally influenced 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets at most exposed beaches, perhaps a little smaller through the afternoon. 

Next week (Mar 6th onwards)

We’ve got a very dynamic synoptic chart on the cards for next week. And the best feature is that it’s associated with a blocking pattern, which means very little west-east movement in the broadscale systems. 

A small Tasman Low is expected to form off Southern NSW later Friday, before holding in this region over the weekend. Initially it won’t favour anywhere south of Seal Rocks. However, current model guidance is suggesting a rapid intensification overnight on Sunday, driving strong S/SW winds across Northern NSW during Monday.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any new swell from this development (except perhaps the Mid North Coast, late in the day) so Monday will largely consistent of easing E’ly swells from the weekend with light offshore winds becoming moderate to fresh SW during the day, tending gusty S/SW in the south.

Building S/SE swells are then expected through Tuesday, with fresh, gusty SW tending S’ly winds accompanying. Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW could see wind affected 4-6ft surf from this source though protected southern corners offering protection will be considerably smaller. Semi-exposed outer points will probably be your best choice with surf size around the 4ft mark. 

Across SE Qld, the swell direction is not expected to favour the points, and exposed south facing beaches will be wind affected too. So at this stage Tuesday is probably looking at small clean runners along the outer points in the 2ft range. Thought, this is quite some time away and with the model guidance moving around a lot lately, this is likely to be revised by Friday's update. 

The Tasman Low is then expected to develop multiple low pressure centres through the middle of the week, each of which will exhibit strong to gale force winds from the eastern quadrant, generating strong surf for the entire East Coast - but mainly Southern NSW.

In fact the models maintain a very active Tasman Sea right through the week, easing off next weekend. Which means we’ve got at least a week of strong swell activity ahead for the entire East Coast, and it’s very likely that several of these days will become quite large, though as mentioned above this is more likely across the Southern NSW coast than Northern NSW.

The Tasman Low does look like it’ll generate a strong S/SE swell through Tuesday and Wednesday - but I fear this won’t be quite enough size from this direction to greatly favour the SE Qld points. As such, Northern NSW will be a better, but windier option through the middle of the week (let's ballpark 4-6ft exposed beaches, 4ft semi-exposed points, and 2ft southern ends for now). SE Qld should see 2ft+ surf across outer points and 3ft+ surf at south facing beaches. 

Of much greater interest to me (relative to Northern NSW and SE Qld, anyway) is a secondary E’ly fetch developing at the back of the system - just north of New Zealand, during the middle of the week. This is expected to generate a strong E’ly groundswell for the latter part of the week, and early next weekend. It’s still very early days but wave heights could come in around the 6ft mark at some exposed spots from this source, and the easterly swell direction would provide a much broader, uniform size distribution. 

Anyway, it’s an exciting period ahead for surfers and charts watchers alike, and a good chance that we’ve got an extended run or great surf ahead for the coming weeks. More on this in Friday’s update.