South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd February)

Best Days: Monday onwards: building trade swell, peaking Thurs/Fri. Winds look better in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW than the Mid North Coast though there is still a risk of onshores in all areas. 

Recap: Small weak surf, very uninspiring.

This weekend (Feb 4th - 5th)

Small surf and northerly winds will continue to create problems over the weekend. 

The trades are slowly firming up south and west of New Caledonia, and this will bring about a very slow, small increase in E’ly swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW though no major size or quality is expected. The Sunshine Coast's open beaches will pick up the biggest sets through Sunday afternoon (somewhere between 2ft and maybe 3ft) but it’ll be smaller prior to this, and everywhere else south of Brisbane will see a little less size. 

The northerly flow will be strongest across the Mid North Coast with lighter winds across SE Qld, possibly even NW for a brief period in the mornings. Though without any major energy in the water it’s really hard to get excited. 

The Lower Mid North Coast may also see a late Sunday arrival of small new S/SE swell, originating from a stationary polar low earlier this week. ASCAT returns picked up small areas of 50kts winds though the fetch length wasn’t great, and the enormous travel distance will keep a lid on prospective surf size. 

As such I have slightly upgraded my size expectations for Sunday, though keep in mind that the sets will be extremely inconsistent. Starting from a very small base through the morning and early afternoon, reliable south swell magnets south of about Coffs may rake in the odd 2ft+ bomb right on dark. However it’ll be a low percentage event so don’t spend too much time working around this swell as it may very well disappoint (Monday is a slightly better chance for this swell).

Next week (Feb 6th onwards)

The pendulum has swung, and we’ve got some good waves on the way later next week. 

Sunday’s late pulse of small S/SE groundswell across the Mid North Coast should push across remaining south facing beaches in Northern NSW, on Monday. It’s not a high confidence swell event but we should see rare 2ft+ sets at the swell magnets from time to time.

The weekend’s trade swell is expected to slowly muscle up all week, towards a peak around Thursday or Friday, in response to a burgeoning trade flow through the Northern Tasman Sea. A broad tropical depression between New Caledonia and Fiji is expected to strengthen slightly during this period and may invoke a westerly push, which could boost wave heights a little more than my estimates below, but for now I’m remaining a little conservative. 

At this stage SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should see 2ft surf on Monday (a little bigger on the Sunshine Coast near 2-3ft) reach a peak of 4ft+ by Thursday or Friday across exposed Sunshine Coast beaches, with smaller surf south of Brisbane (i.e 3-4ft Gold/Tweed Coasts, 3ft North Coast and Mid North Coast).

At the same time, a complex surface trough is expected to develop off the Far Southern NSW Coast and slowly move northwards from around Tuesday onwards. The models are suggesting an unusually thin, elongated fetch thanks to a broad supporting ridge to the south, and the slow northward track of this system is somewhat interesting as the fetch will hang in the swell window a little longer than usual, which should boost size prospects.

At this stage the fetch is expected to reach maximum strength across the Hunter (Wed/Thurs) though will see it enter the Mid North Coast’s swell window on Thursday and the Far North Coast’s swell window on Friday. This probably won’t boost wave heights higher than the figures mentioned above, but should add some interesting SE peaks into the mix and also increase the surf's consistency. 

As for winds, Monday and Tuesday will see the northerlies continue about Northern NSW though lighter NE winds are expected in SE Qld with variable periods early. The wind outlook becomes tricky from Wednesday onwards owing to the advancing southern trough and the westward approaching trade belt/tropical depression, however it’s likely that we’ll see the end of the northerlies (for now) with a more E/SE thru’ SE flow becoming established at times. I’ll have more confidence on this on Monday though.

Looking further ahead, and this anchored trade belt south of New Caledonia is showing promising signs for a more significant tropical development in our NE swell window later next week, possibly the merger between the depression and the northward advancing trough. As such next weekend could be on target for a significant short range swell event.. but I’ll have more on that on Monday.