South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th January)

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Best Days: Sat: some potential opportunities across the Mid North Coast if and when local winds rease. Sun: early peaky N'ly swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and light winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: strong S'ly swells in Northern NSW and mainly light winds in the mornings. 

Recap: Thursday delivered some great waves, with winds becoming light and variable throughout the day and a fun peaky E’ly swell offering 2-3ft sets up and down the coast. This swell faded throughout this morning but a small S’ly swell punched way higher than expected across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, which is even more impressive seeing that it didn’t amount to much in Southern NSW on Thursday. As per the grab from our Coffs cam this morning, some sets were pushing 3-4ft at times and light winds made for clean conditions. Unfortunately this swell didn’t really make it north of the border though the early light winds allowed for some small clean beachies.

How's this bomb from the south at Coffs Harbour this morning?

This weekend (Jan 14th - 15th)

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Today’s south swell will ease into Saturday; it’s already dropped quite a bit this afternoon at the swell magnets so expectations are pretty low for anything of substance by tomorrow. 

In any case, strengthening N/NW winds will hammer many locations so it’s hard to imagine there’ll be anywhere worthwhile to begin with. These winds will generate a local  windswell for exposed coasts though quality won’t be very high. The Mid North Coast - being downwind with the largest fetch length - will see the largest waves, up to 2-3ft+ by the afternoon, but it’ll be smaller to the north. 

There’ll also be a small lingering E’ly swell in the water though no great size is expected.

The afternoon still has some potential for the Mid North Coast. An approaching trough from the south will interrupt the northerly fetch, pushing it further north and creating a period of variable winds. This is expected to extend across the Lower Mid North Coast before lunchtime, and then the remaining Mid North Coast up to about Coffs Harbour through the afternoon. If this eventuates, we could see a period of fun peaky NE swells to open beaches after lunch. Don’t get your hopes up but there are possibilities.

Strengthening northerly winds will continue overnight on Saturday off the Southern Queensland coast and should generate bigger N’ly windswells for this region on Sunday morning. 

However, the outlook for the position and strength of the trough on Sunday has become more complex since Wednesday’s model runs - it now looks like it’ll stall across the Northern Rivers, so the cooling effects of a gusty S’ly change may not influence anywhere north of the border until very late in the day - if at all. 

In fact the models are suggesting a complex system that could bring about just any wind direction on Sunday; the broader pattern will be strong SE across the Lower Mid North, E’ly centered around Coffs and Yamba, and N’ly across the Sunshine Coast. Between these areas light variable winds could occur (indeed they could occur anywhere). I’m not trying to sit on the fence; it's very common for different wind directions and speeds to be reported across nearby coasts under these patterns.

Some model runs push the S/SE change up the coast during the day (reaching the border late afternoon) but others have erased it completely. It could go either way.

As for surf, the N’ly windswell will probably show biggest across the Gold and Tweed coasts with 2-3ft sets at swell magnets on Sunday morning, easing during the day. These regions are also best positioned for a chance of light variable winds. 

The N’ly windswell will be smaller along the Sunshine Coast (owing to the short fetch length) and there’s a greater risk of a N’ly breeze here. And surf size will be a little small to the south of Yamba owing to the retreating fetch. However we should see some short range E’ly and SE swells across the Mid North (and eventually Far North) coasts from the local fetches. 

Also, late afternoon should also start to see a bigger S’ly groundswell push into the Mid North Coast, from a better fetch positioned well to the south. This should kick up 4ft+ sets at south facing beaches by the end of the day, showing even better through the start of next week. 

So, pretty complex, eh? 

In short, Mid North Coast has potential Saturday, everywhere else for Sunday. But keep your expectations low and your eyes peeled for windows of opportunity.

Next week (Jan 16th onwards)

The parent low to the southerly change will properly enter our far south swell window on Sunday, and although not perfectly aligned, will project a strong SW fetch through the lower Tasman Sea. This will generate longer period S’ly groundswell that is expected to fill in on Monday and probably hold through Tuesday and maybe early Wednesday. 

Again, the models don’t really seem to be liking this system and are only suggesting easing swells from early Monday morning (across Northern NSW) around 3-4ft, down to 2ft by Tuesday afternoon. In reality I think we’re looking at building surf throughout Monday, peaking in the afternoon and early Tuesday with inconsistent, but very solid 4-6ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron. Surf size will be smaller elsewhere due to the direction.

This swell won’t really do much north of the border, though exposed northern ends/south swell magnets should pick up a few occasional 2ft sets, maybe 2-3ft if we're super lucky. But it'll be incredibly inconsistent.

There won’t be much leftover N’ly swell nor any residual trade swell so most SE Qld beaches will remain very small through the start of next week. 

Winds should be quite workable both days. A redeveloping Tasman high will maintain N’ly winds across the Mid North Coast, trending NE across the Far North Coast and E’ly up into SE Qld but no major strength is expected. Aim for an early surf for the best conditions.

These southerly swells will ease through Wednesday, but a series of moderate fonts tracking through the lower Tasman Sea should generate some reasonable south swell through Thursday and Friday, with 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron). 

And there’s one slightly less common swell event due later next week. A broadening S/SE fetch around the southern flank of the weekend’s major low pressure system (responsible for the Mon/Tues south swells) will generate a fresh pulse of energy that’s expected to arrive around Thursday afternoon (again, Northern NSW only). 

Unfortunately, the long term charts look pretty uninspiring for our eastern swell window so SE Qld could be looking at a period of relatively small surf for most of next week. The cycle has to break soon!

Have a great weekend - see you Monday.