South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 7th October)

Best Days: Sat: south facing beaches across Northern NSW, get in early while winds are NW. Tiny conditions across SE Qld. Sun: chance for a small wave across the SE Qld outer points. Tues/Wed/Thurs/Fri: plenty of south swell for Northern NSW (tiny in SE Qld), possibly large Fri. Thurs/Fri: potential inconsistent E'ly swell for all coasts (don't hold your breath!). 

Recap: It’s certainly been an interesting, complex couple of days across the region. As anticipated, the majority of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts remained tiny on Thursday however exposed northern ends and south swell magnets picked up some fun 2ft+ waves from a southerly groundswell. This swell produced bigger surf south of the border, in particular south facing beaches south of Byron which were a strong 4ft+ at times in the morning. The swell eased through the day but then rebuilt across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon with a second S’ly swell. A third, much longer period but far less consistent S’ly groundswell has built throughout today (starting off smaller in the Far North), producing solid 4ft sets at south facing beaches under early light winds that are now freshening from the northern quadrant. All in all, there have been some excellent waves about the coast but there’s been a wide range in size and quality from beach to beach, owing to a phenomena known colloquially as (at least in the Swellnet office, anyway) “magic numbers”, whereby swells exhibiting particular swell characteristics - heigh, period, direction - are steered either towards, or away from ordinarily reliable swell magnets, due to the local bathymetry. This is worthy of an article as it happens more often than you’re probably aware.

Nice waves at Coffs this morning

This weekend (Oct 8th - Oct 9th)

This weekend’s waves will be dictated by winds.

An approaching S’ly change is due to reach the lower Mid North Coast mid-late Saturday afternoon, but prior to that we’ll see moderate NW winds across all coasts veering N’ly for a period (mainly across the Far North and Gold Coast). Winds should slacken off ahead of the change (i.e. from late morning onwards) but this probably will only influence locations up to about Coffs Harbour.

As for surf, the current S’ly swell is expected to ease overnight so your only options will be at south swell magnets offering good shelter from a NW tending N’ly breeze. South facing beaches south of Byron should still manage inconsistent 2-3ft sets early morning but expect size to diminish throughout the day. 

Wave heights will be smaller at remaining beaches, and also the Tweed Coast - and especially the Gold and Sunshine Coasts which will remain tiny (exposed northern ends may see occasional 1.5ft sets glance the swell magnets). 

The southerly change is expected to reach the Qld border around midnight, but it won’t last long and should begin to weaken throughout Sunday morning. A small southerly windswell trailing the change should provide low quality 2ft sets to south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and a small, brief intensification at the head of the fetch - possibly resulting in a small closed low off the Gold Coast early morning with strong S/SE winds - may whip up a small short range S/SE swell for SE Qld beaches during Saturday, starting from a small base. 

I’d be surprised to see much more than wind affected 2ft+ sets at south swell magnets and 1-2ft waves across the outer points by early afternoon, but there is certainly some potential for a small rideable wave throughout the day. However if anything it’s likely to favour the Gold Coast and not the Sunshine Coast, and with likely small surf size you should keep your expectations low. I’ll update in the comments below (on Saturday) if the models ratchet up the outlook for Sunday.

Otherwise, winds will be lighter south of about Yamba thanks to the relaxing pressure gradient, in fact we may even see a weak NE sea breeze in the afternoon across the Mid North Coast.

All in all, a pretty ordinary weekend but there’ll be waves if you’re keen. 

Next week (Oct 10th onwards)

Strengthening northerly winds will develop on Sunday night and persist through Monday, writing off surf conditions at most beaches. 

We’re likely to see some small residual mid-range south swell from the trailing fetch behind Saturday night’s change (just a foot or two of weak surf across Northern NSW) and also some small longer period S’ly swell at the same exposed south facing beaches, originating from the parent low to the change as it tracks below Tasmania this evening. It’s not very well aligned for us but the fetch is broad and slow moving, so swell magnets may rake in very inconsistent 2-3ft sets. 

Either way, with the northerly flow only a handful of sheltered northern headlands will offer anything worthwhile. Everywhere else not open to the south will be much smaller, especially the SE Qld region. 

These strengthening northerlies will be associated with a massive slow moving, multi-centered, gyre-scale Southern Ocean low pressure system (see below).

A strong SW tending S’ly change is then expected to push up the NSW coast on Tuesday, and we should see some southerly swell spread back into exposed south facing beaches during the day. Though, they’ll be a mess with the accompanying winds. It’s hard to gauge whether there’ll be enough size for protected locations, we’ll have to reassess on Monday.

As the broadscale low moves east across the Southern Ocean, its western flank will eventually slide into our southern swell window and this is expected to generate a series of southerly groundswells for Southern NSW for the rest of the week. 

This should supply plenty of south swell for Northern NSW from Wednesday through Saturday, with Friday likely to peak quite large in the 6ft+ range at south facing beaches south of Byron. However the size potential from this neck of the woods looks small across SE Qld due to the fetch source and alignment.

Of much more interest to SE Qld surfers is a potential tropical system that’s popped up recently in the model runs, south of Fiji around Monday. I don’t like the way it’s progged to track east before it properly matures however it’s the first decent easterly swell prospects in quite a while, so let’s tease things out for a few days. 

Current thinking is that sometime Thursday afternoon or Friday could be looking at inconsistent 3ft+ sets across exposed parts of the SE Qld and Northern NSW coast. Which, in tandem with a solid southerly groundswell, could produce some very interesting beach break options across Northern NSW.

Let’s hope the models don’t downgrade it over the weekend; we’re inside T96hr for formation which is a good sign, and also, when the models pick up a system late in the period like this, it often slowly upgrades its potential rather than downgrades.. but let’s not count our chickens yet, eh? 

So, there’s plenty to look forward to in the long term outlook - check back Monday to see how it’s all tracking. 

Have a great weekend!