South-east Queensland and Northern NSW  Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd October 30th September)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs/Fri: good south swells for Northern NSW with generally favourable winds (tiny in SE Qld). Sat: smaller, easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW early morning with good early winds (tiny in SE Qld). 

Recap: SE Qld has been essentially flat for the last three days. A small south swell built across the Northern NSW coast on Sunday and then eased today but it's been too small to bother with.

This week (Oct 4th - Oct 7th)

We’ve got a tricky forecast period ahead for Northern NSW, with a number of complex south swell sources. 

However, by and large the outlook for SE Qld is for tiny surf for almost the entirety of this week, all weekend and probably the first half of next week at least, if not longer. So keep your fishing rod handy north of the border as it’s going to come to good use for quite some time.

Freshening northerly winds today won’t generate much windswell for the region and with a gusty W/SW change pushing over the coast tonight there won’t be much short period N'ly swell on offer for Tuesday, even at exposed north facing swell magnets. 

W/SW gales off the Southern NSW coast early Tuesday morning may generate a small flush of weak S’ly swell for south facing beaches in the Far North later Tuesday afternoon (and maybe one or two swell magnets north of the border) but I’d be surprised if there was much more than a foot to two of lacklustre waves in it. 

Elsewhere - i.e. from Yamba or Coffs south, and most of the Sunshine and Gold Coasts - expect tiny to flat conditions to persist on Tuesday.

Overnight Tuesday, a stronger, better aligned front will push NE of Bass Strait and this will generate a more useful south swell for Wednesday. We’ll probably start from a small base, but the Northern NSW coast should build to 3-4ft+ at south swell magnets during the afternoon - however conditions may be a little suss with early SW winds likely to swing moderate to fresh S’ly after lunch. So, those beaches picking up all of the size may be wind affected.

Surf size will be much smaller at beaches not open to the south, and we may see slightly undersized afternoon wave heights in the Far North, owing to a likely overnight peak in size (Thursday morning may show this swell a little better).

North of the border, most beaches will remain tiny on Wednesday, but the region’s couple of reliable south swell magnets could see a few 1ft to maybe 2ft sets late in the day, and conditions will be clean - but I wouldn’t recommend any major highway mileage, as the swell is expected to be a late arrival here on Wednesday (especially across the Sunshine Coast), if it arrives at all. 

This south swell will ease rapidly through Thursday, probably showing best across south facing beaches south of Byron at dawn. It will have already begun easing across the Mid North Coast by this time and will consequently be much smaller here.

The outlook for the second half of the week has changed a bit for Northern NSW. We’re still looking at an intense low passing east of Tasmania on Wednesday, but it’s now modelled to slide south of Tasmania rather than north (through Bass Strait) - see the explanatory images below.

Despite core wind speeds likely to reach 50kts, this storm is also expected to travel a little faster through the swell window, which means we’ll see smaller surf across the Northern NSW coast than what was indicated in Friday's notes. And, it's expected to arrive a little later.

We’ll actually see two swells build later Thursday and Friday from this system. This initial energy will be generated by the W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait, across the northern flank of the low. 

South facing beaches in Northern NSW will pick up the most size, with the Mid North Coast building to 3-4ft+ mid-late afternoon Thursday. This swell probably won’t reach the Far North Coast until overnight Thursday, showing best on Friday morning.

Longer period S’ly swell from the core of the parent low tracking across waters SE of Tasmania is then expected to reach the Mid North Coast early Friday - arriving mid-late morning across the Far North Coast - and should push closer towards 3-5ft at most south facing beaches by the afternoon. This swell will display much longer swell periods and therefore could show much bigger at offshore bombies. But once again, any beach not directly open to the south will be much smaller in size. Conditions will however be clean both days with light morning offshores and afternoon sea breezes. 

Across SE Qld, we’re looking at very small conditions at most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches on Thursday and Friday. Some outer points and exposed northern ends of the coast may pick up small 1ft waves through Thursday and maybe some extremely inconsistent 2ft sets on Friday, but I’m really pegging my expectations towards the lower end of the spectrum. Everywhere else will probably remain tiny to flat.

This weekend (Oct 8th - Oct 9th)

Looks like easing S’ly swell will dominate the weekend. 

Friday’s solid long period swell will probably lose a foot or two overnight into Saturday morning, with south facing beaches in Northern NSW picking up early 2-3ft bombs before it eases further during the day. 

Smaller surf is then expected on Sunday.

And, most of SE Qld will probably remain tiny to flat both days. 

As for winds, a shallow southerly change approaching the region could freshen northerly winds on Saturday ahead of a southerly flow for Sunday but we’ll have to revise the details on Wednesday. 

Next week (Oct 10th onwards)

Another large Southern Ocean low is on the model guidance for the longer term period, crossing Tasmanian longitudes and possibly setting up a small N’ly windswell early in the week, followed by a large S’ly swell for Northern NSW during the middle of the week. it’s still a very long time away though so let’s see how things progress over the coming days.  

The outer fringes of the models also have a possible tropical disturbance across the Fijian region early next week but that’s a very long time away in what’s not a reliable time of the year within our eastern swell window either. So, confidence is very low on that source right now.