South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th September)

Best Days: Thurs: small S'ly swell inside protected northern corners across Northern NSW (may be a lag in the Far North). Fri: small NE swell with clean conditions, surf early for the most size. Thurs/Fri: small S'y swell for Northern NSW.

Recap: Varying degrees of southerly swell have pulsed across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches over the last two days though there have been periods of smaller conditions between swell fronts. Local winds have touch almost every quadrant at some point - take Cape Byron for example, which yesterday saw a W’ly flow before dawn, then S’ly by mid-morning, E’ly by mid-afternoon then N’ly by dinnertime. Today has seen a similar spread of wind directions. 

This week (Thursday 29th - Friday 30th)

Thursday looks pretty dicey, mainly due to a strengthening N’ly wind about most coasts.

To begin with, we’ll actually see a secondary south swell move across the Northern NSW coast, arriving across the Mid North Coast early morning, and the Far North Coast around lunchtime. This will have originated from a poorly aligned secondary low that developed in the lower Tasman Sea today, at the tail end of the front responsible for today’s new south swell. 

No major size is expected from this source (the fetch is strong but it’s aimed tup towards Fiji), and with freshening northerly winds you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered corner for the next waves, but 2-3ft+ sets are possible at south swell magnets as the energy glances the coast. If you dial into a period of temporarily light winds you could score some nice beachies. But this swell wont do much north of the border. 

Additionally, we’ll see a building N’ly windswell throughout Thursday. Unfortunately, model guidance has slightly downgraded the potential size over the last few runs - the fetch is not expected to be quite as strong nor as wide as previously modelled. Exposed NE facing beaches should reach a late peak around 2ft+ across the Gold and Tweed Coasts (smaller across the Sunshine Coast), with locations south of Coffs Harbour possibly up to 3ft+.  

This downgrade isn’t so much a problem for Thursday, as poor conditions were generally expected anyway. However, the earlier arrival of the NW change will shut off the supply of new swell on Thursday evening, which means surf size will start to fall overnight. And this has an impact on Friday’s potential surf as we’re now looking at smaller waves than was suggested on Monday.

That being said, as was also mentioned on Monday, the dynamics of the approaching front mean that the Gold/Tweed Coast’s immediate northern swell window will remain active for a little longer overnight Thursday so early Friday morning should bear some fruit across exposed beaches in the Far North. I’m expecting clean peaky waves around 2ft at exposed swell magnets, but not a great deal elsewhere. Size will ease throughout the day. 

Surf size will probably be smaller across the Sunshine Coast, but the North and Mid North Coasts should see 1.5-2ft sets through the morning (at exposed NE facing beaches) before size eases throughout the day. 

All open beaches will however be nice and clean with fresh offshore winds. 

This weekend (Oct 1 - Oct 2)

Looks like Monday’s suggestion for a possible flat weekend may very well come to fruition. 

The intense mid-latitude low pressure system currently impacting South Australia is expected to move slowly across South-eastern Australia over the coming days, directing westerly gales across our southern swell window. If anything there’ll be a touch of north in the direction, extending all the way down to Tasmanian latitudes, which means lots of westerly swell for the West Coast of New Zealand but pancake conditions across the East Coast of Australia.

There is still minor hope that the westerly gales existing eastern Bass Strait on Saturday will swing slightly south of west for a period, which could generate a minor south swell for exposed south swell magnets across the Lower Mid North Coast later Sunday but I’m not holding any hope right now.

You’d be much better off choosing some other activity away from the surf this weekend. 

Next week (Oct 3 onwards)

Northerly winds will return on Monday morning ahead of an afternoon north-west tending westerly change, in conjunction with a very active series of weather systems across the SE corner of the country.

In fact, this storm track looks like it’ll ride (unusually) north of Tasmanian latitudes, which means that apart from a couple of brief, flukey south swells (every time the westerly fetch swings momentarily south of west), it won’t be until the second half of the week that our south swell prospects will improve - once the broader upper level long wave pattern moves to the east. 

So, the overall outlook seems to be a possible small N’ly windswell Monday - maybe a late window of opportunity at exposed beaches as winds swing NW? - and then tiny conditions with mainly westerly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

A small troughy system NE of New Zealand is expected to intensify over the weekend and may produce a small E’ly swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW early-mid next week, but the fetch is expected to track slow eastwards which really puts a damper on its swell potential. We may see a few inconsistent 1-2ft sets but I am doubtful they'll appear at many beaches.

Otherwise, the aforementioned frontal passage across the SE corner of the country should kick up a new south swell for Thursday and Friday across Northern NSW as the fetch slowly swings south of west in the lower Tasman Sea; no major size is expected but we'll probably see some 3ft sets at south swell magnets. 

SE Qld looks like it’ll remain tiny for quite some time.

See you Friday - hopefully I’ll have some better news!