South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st September)

Best Days: Later Thurs/Fri: a small E/SE swell may produce peaky beachies across Northern NSW with generally good winds. Fri PM: building S'ly swell across Northern NSW (mainly Mid North Coast), best options late afternoon inside southern corners. Tiny in SE Qld. Sat/Sun: Strong, easing S'ly swell with mainly good winds in the mornings. 

Recap: Tuesday produced unexpectedly larger waves than forecast across south swell magnets in Northern NSW. Although the trend played out as expected - with the Far North Coast starting off with tiny conditions - exposed locations pulled in solid 4-5ft sets for a period of time, and conditions were clean in the morning with mainly light winds in most areas, ahead of moderate onshores throughout the afternoon. Although the source of the swell is somewhat easy to hindcast, it’s a little harder to quantify why surf size ended up much bigger than expected. There were two possible source fetches - the first located inside the swell shadow of the Hunter curve, with the second being the extension of this system as a front into the central Tasman Sea, which was SW in orientation, aimed well and truly away from the coast. Both scenarios were were only expected to generate sideband energy across Northern NSW. My suspicion is that there was a minor slingshot effect (to the north) as the fetch tracked around the broader Tasman low, which assisted in creating a quasi-captured fetch scenario. Otherwise, protected locations were much smaller, and much of SE Qld remained very small throughout the day - a couple of 1.5ft sets at outer points and a few bigger waves at south friendly beaches but in general not enough to bother with. Today, surf size has pulled back quite a bit from the south and moderate northerly winds have developed across most regions following a period of early light winds. Again, surf size is tiny across SE Qld.

This week (Thursday 22nd - Friday 23rd)

We’re looking at a small start on Thursday morning across Northern NSW as the current swell sources dry up. 

We have a small new round of SE thru’ E/SE swell due throughout the day, originating from the slightly-reinvigorated Tasman low that provided our Mon/Tues swell: it’s now occupying the New Zealand region and it displayed a modest but reasonable easterly tending south-easterly fetch about its southern flank as it tracked eastwards, away from the Australian mainland.

Wind speeds weren’t particularly strong, and the fetch only spent a brief period aimed nicely within our swell window, so I’m keeping my expectations relatively low from this source - both on timing and size from this source. 

It’s more likely that we’ll see an increase throughout the afternoon (than the morning) with inconsistent sets in the 2ft+ range across open beaches in Northern NSW, which should persist into Friday before easing. Expect smaller surf (with a slightly later arrival time) across open SE Qld beaches. 

Thursday's winds look very good as a broad trough pushes off the coast (again!) forming a low off the Far South Coast, resulting in moderate to fresh W’ly winds across most regions. So conditions will be clean but it’s hard to have a lot of confidence on the surf side of the coin.

Friday looks a little tricky, though we can safely write off the prospects of any major size across SE Qld (the only swell source being the minor SE swell mentioned above). 

Northern NSW will however see a building S’ly swell during the day, originating from the new low pressure system modelled to form off the Southern NSW later Thursday. A thin strip of southerly gales around the western flank of the low once again look like they’ll be located inside the shadow of the Hunter curve, though as we saw on Tuesday this may not necessarily create quite the barrier to surf size that we ordinarily assume (it only takes the fetch to be positioned another 100km to the east for it to suddenly be inside our acute south swell window).

In any case, we’re looking at a small start across all coasts - persisting for a longer period in the Far North - but with a steady increase all day (earlier across the Mid North Coast). The Far North Coast will probably see a peak overnight or early Saturday morning, so we may only reach 3-4ft by the end of the day (north of Ballina) but the Mid North Coast will probably pick up 4-5ft sets through the mid-late afternoon. 

Winds look OK for the morning but we’re likely to see the front influence the southern coastal margins into the afternoon (ie Mid North Coast), resulting in moderate to fresh SW winds. So, your afternoon surf here on this building swell will be best off inside protected southern corners. 

Locations north of Yamba are looking at a much weaker pressure gradient, in fact north of Ballina we may see light to moderate NE sea breezes. Though, the small, later arrival of swell will probably focus the best waves to northern corners anyway. 

I’ll update throughout the day as this swell starts to make landfall, but you’ll be able to assess its potential across the Gallows and Yamba surfcams, both of which face towards the south.

This weekend (Saturday 24th - Sunday 25th)

The weekend looks pretty fun for Northern NSW, but once again we’re looking at very small surf across SE Qld.

There’s only one swell event to work around, and that’s Friday’s late new south swell. It’ll ease throughout Saturday but the morning session should offer plenty of size at south facing beaches (somewhere in the 3-5ft range) ahead of an easing trend throughout the day. Conditions look pretty good in most areas with mainly light winds and sea breezes, if anything we may see a northerly flow across the Far North Coast with SW winds across the lower Mid North Coast (and variable between ‘em). 

SE Qld won’t pick up much, if any size from this source with south swell magnets lucky to see a couple of feet of refracted swell. Most beaches will be tiny.

On Sunday, the easing swell trend will persist and winds should veer light to moderate westerly as a weak trough crosses the coast. Afternoon sea breezes will bump up the surf so aim for an early paddle across your favourite south facing beach in Northern NSW for the best conditions (2-3ft surf at south swell magnets, easing to 1-2ft during the day, smaller elsewhere). Again, expect very small surf throughout SE Qld.

Next week (Monday 26th onwards)

A weakening front is expected to track up the southern NSW coast overnight Sunday, before stalling across the lower Mid North Coast by early Monday morning. This may generate a small S’ly swell for exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW into the afternoon, but I’d be surprised if we saw much more than 2ft+. Winds should be generally favourable thanks to the stalling change (light and variable with afternoon sea breezes).

Also, in similarity to the current Tasman system producing an E’ly swell from its latter incarnation near New Zealand on Friday, we’re looking at a similar small E/SE swell for Southern NSW through Tuesday and Wednesday from this week’s upcoming system - no major size is expected but probably a little more than we’re anticipating on Friday (i.e. maybe some inconsistent 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches). 

Otherwise the mid-week period is looking at easing southerly swell with small conditions and light winds. There are no other major swell systems on the horizon beyond this right now.

See you Friday!