South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th September)

Best Days: Tues: Fun small S'ly swell across open beaches in Northern NSW, with mainly good winds.  Sat/Sun: mainly small combo of S thru S/SE swells in Northern NSW. 

Recap: Easing S’ly swell on Saturday offered early good waves at south facing beaches in Northern NSW but very little elsewhere, including SE Qld. Small residual swells then padded out Sunday and today, including a minor local NE windswell late Sunday and early this morning.  

This week (Tuesday 20th - Friday 23rd)

Southern NSW saw a strong pulse of directional south swell this afternoon, originating from a narrow band of S’ly gales that developed immediately off the coast this morning. 

Most of this fetch was located inside the swell shadow of the Hunter curve, so much of the energy from the initial pulse won’t quite be felt across Northern NSW - however as the front tracks north-east into the central Tasman Sea overnight, it’ll generate a new SW swell that will spread back into the Northern NSW coast out of the south thru’ S/SE. 

This should generate occasional 2-3ft+ sets at south facing beaches on Tuesday though there’ll be a large range in wave heights due the direction. Conditions should be generally clean with light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes. The models have a lunchtime peak across the Mid North Coast and an afternoon peak across the North Coast, so keep your morning session's size expectations in check (mainly across the Far North, which may be a little undersized at first). 

However, I’m doubtful that we’ll see much, if any size across SE Qld again thanks to the unfavourable swell source. So apart from exposed south swell magnets which may pick up some small infrequent 2ft sets into the afternoon (smaller earlier), expect tiny surf at most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches. 

Smaller, easing southerly swells are then expected into Wednesday with winds returning to the north as a broad island trough slowly moves across NSW. 

The Tasman low is expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a resulting ESE fetch exiting Cook Strait will generate a small swell for the middle to latter part of this week. Current guidance suggests this fetch will initially be aimed to the south of our region, and then finally when it does swing clockwise (in our favour) it’ll be weakening. So, surf prospects are not high at this point in time; we may see a few stray 2ft sets out of the SE later Thursday and into Friday. I’ll revise this outlook on Wednesday.

Otherwise, the progged development of the inland trough pushing off the coast later Wednesday and into Thursday doesn’t look too dissimilar to yesterday’s system. We should see a return southerly fetch develop in a thin strip off the Far South Coast overnight Thursday, resulting in a punchy short range south swell for southern NSW on Friday. At this stage it’s possible that the Mid North Coast will pick up some late afternoon lines of new south swell, but most other parts of Northern NSW will probably have to wait until the weekend.

As such, apart from the small SE swell off the NW remnants of the Tasman low, it’s looking like a small finish to the week in Northern NSW with tiny conditions across SE Qld. Conditions will however be clean both days with winds out of the western quadrant; the Mid North Coast may see a late fresh SW change. 

This weekend (Saturday 24th - Sunday 25th)

Friday’s change will probably result in a Tasman Low forming in the central Tasman Sea overnight. This should generate a short range S’ly swell for Northern NSW on Saturday morning, followed by a smaller S/SE swell throughout the weekend from a second fetch at the bottom of the low. 

At this stage no major size is expected, apart from the initial push on Saturday morning, which may be accompanied with a bit of southerly wind as the associated front clips the coast. So, south facing beaches in Northern NSW picking up the swell may be wind affected (3-4ft sets), and protected spots will be smaller but cleaner. Sunday looks much better of the surface with light winds but a smaller combo of S thru’ SE swells at exposed beaches, size probably around 2ft+.

Unfortunately, this pattern doesn’t look overly positive for SE Qld so it’s shaping up to be another small weekend of waves north of the border. 

Next week (Monday 26th onwards)

The long wave pattern is suggesting another southerly change into the lower Tasman Sea around Monday morning, which should bring about an increase in strong south swell for a day or two across Northern NSW. Aside from that there’s nothing else of any significance on the long range charts.