South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 16th September)

Best Days: No great days due to mainly small swells and poor winds. Sat AM in Northern NSW (south swell magnets) and Mon AM across the Gold/Tweed Coasts (north swell magnets) the only possibilities at this stage. 

Recap: Small southerly swells on Thursday delivered 2ft waves about south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with little surf elsewhere. A small increase in south swell today provided bigger sets near 2-3ft, though conditions have bumped up at south swell magnets with winds veering onshore this afternoon. SE Qld has remained very small.

Couple of 3ft sets in Coffs Harbour this afternoon, via our Gallows surfcam

This weekend (Saturday 17th - Sunday 18th)

The weekend still looks pretty unexciting. 

For SE Qld surfers, there won’t be much, if any surf at all. And to add insult to injury, early light winds Saturday morning will swing NE in the afternoon and freshen, before strengthening from the north all day Sunday. A small windswell will probably develop throughout the day (mainly north-facing beaches across the Gold and Tweed Coasts) but quality will be poor.

Northern NSW has a window of opportunity this weekend: Saturday morning at south facing beaches.

The current small southerly groundswell pushing through the coast will gradually fade overnight tonight, but we’ll see a minor reinforcing mid-range south swell from a weak front in the southern Tasman Sea this morning. No major size is expected but this combo should produce 2ft+ sets at reliable south swell magnets before an easing trend sets in throughout the afternoon. Expect much smaller surf elsewhere.

By Saturday lunchtime winds will be around to the NE and they’ll freshen into the afternoon. So aim for an early paddle for the most size and best conditions.

Sunday will see very little leftover south swell and freshening N’ly winds really won’t offer many great surfing opportunities about the coast. If you’re desperate, try a sheltered northern corner early morning for the dribble leftovers of south swell before the wind really ratchets up. A small northerly windswell is possible late afternoon but there won’t be any quality associated with it.

Next week (Monday 19th onwards)

A broad trough of low pressure crossing the south-eastern corner of the country is expected to bring a westerly change to all regions overnight Sunday. So, we should start the week with clean conditions across most beaches.

Sunday’s northerly fetch inside our immediate swell window has some potential for a minor NE windswell early Monday morning, but there's a few caveats that need to be discussed. 

Once the change arrives in our region, it’ll turn off the swell supply. The timing of this change therefore has a close correlation with our surf prospects - if it arrives early Sunday evening, wave heights will ease overnight and it may be too small to surf early Monday morning. But if the change is delayed until (say) early Monday morning, then we should still see a small level of northerly windswell across the coast for the early session before it fades into the afternoon.

We also have to keep in mind that small, short range N’ly windswells often produce wide variations in surf quality across the region, so right now I’d keep your expectations low.

If anything - and keep in mind that this is a glass-half-full-scenario - we’re probably looking at NE swell magnets across the Gold and Tweed Coast seeing inconsistent 2ft sets early morning, easing to 1ft during the day. I’d expect smaller surf elsewhere (i.e. beaches with less northerly exposure) and also the Sunshine Coast.

The bulk of the Northern NSW has potential for small waves from this source but I am concerned as to how fast the fetch retreats from our swell window (models have it lingering north of Byron a little longer, which is why I’m in favour of the Gold/Tweed Coasts over anywhere else).

Other than that, the long range models look rather bleak for next week. A series of weak, poorly aligned fronts in the southern Tasman on Monday may generate small southerly swells for Northern NSW swell magnets on Tuesday but I don’t think there’ll be much size in it.

Strengthening northerly winds are expected on Wednesday - which may again whip up a peaky short range N’ly swell for exposed beaches - but we’ve then got a strong southerly change for Southern NSW mid-week that also has potential for a sizeable south swell in Northern NSW on Thursday and Friday. But given the erratic nature of the recent model runs, I’m hesitant to have any confident beyond Sunday. Let's wait to see how Monday's runs are looking.

That’s about as far as it’s worth discussing right now, as I think we’re going to see some major revisions in the model data over the coming days so speculating on long term possibilities is a risky proposition right now.

See you Monday.. have a great weekend!