South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th September)

Best Days: Fri AM/Sat: small peaky swells with light winds. Mon: light winds and easing S'ly swell across Northern NSW. 

Recap: Small swells and northerly winds have maintained very few surfing options across Northern NSW and SE Qld. We’ve got a peaky mix of long period south swell and NE windswell across Northern NSW plus some minor trade swell across SE Qld.

Small 2ft lines out of the south across the Coffs Coast today (check the bloke far right)

This week (Thursday 15th - Friday 16th)

We’ve had an improvement in the outlook for Friday.

A front crossing Southern NSW is now expected to influence all of Northern NSW and SE Qld (rather than just the Mid North Coast), by way of interrupting the northerly regime and allowing a period of light offshore winds throughout the morning. 

Prior to this, Thursday is looking much the same as today with a freshening N’ly flow though we may see conditions ease into the afternoon across Northern NSW (specifically, the Mid North Coast) and tend more NW. So keep your expectations pegged appropriately low.

As for surf, today's small S’ly swell across Northern NSW is coming in at the bottom end of forecast expectations (2ft against a forecast of 2-3ft), so it’s hard to gauge how the next few days of similar swell activity will pan out. Based on raw swell model forecasts, we can expect a similar size range into Thursday ahead of slightly bigger surf on Friday. 

However Thursday may very well produce a few bigger sets at south swell magnets. The system responsible for this swell was working on an active sea state (a characteristic lacked by the front that generated today’s swell source) and this marginally bumps up size prospects. But only a very small amount, maybe some rare 2-3ft bombs at south facing beaches from time to time, but with an overall underlying swell of 1-2ft. 

There’ll also be a small NE windswell in the mix, ranging from 1-2ft across Far Northern NSW to 2-3ft across the Mid North Coast. SE Qld will continue to see a small mix of trade swell and NE windswell in the 1-2ft range at open beaches.

Friday on the other hand has slightly bigger long period S’ly swell on the cards plus a late arriving short range S’ly swell across the Mid North Coast, originating from a low/front pushing east of Bass Strait on Thursday. This latter system has unfortunately been downgraded quite a bit since Monday’s model runs so the resulting swell will be a lot smaller. 

Wave heights should come in around the 2-3ft mark at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and I’m once again expecting very inconsistent set waves - though probably not as infrequent as Thursday. Exposed beaches should see a small level of NE windswell in the morning though this source will be easing (occasional 2ft sets). And conditions should be clean with early offshore winds. 

SE Qld doesn’t look much chop for Friday but at least the northerlies will be gone. If you’re totally desperate hit up an open beach for a small, slow peaky wave with early light offshore winds.  

This weekend (Saturday 17th - Sunday 18th)

The weekend really doesn’t look too flash. We have no major swell sources on the cards and winds look tricky.

Saturday will kick off with small easing trade swells across SE Qld (1-2ft max) and a small easing S’ly swell across Northern NSW (2ft+ max), with smaller surf expected throughout the day. Conditions should be generally good with early light winds but a northerly trend may develop into the afternoon as a front approaches from the south.

This front will be linked in with a broader change sweeping north-east of Tasmania on Saturday, and it’s expected to build southerly swells across Northern NSW on Sunday afternoon. However, the accompanying southerly winds will probably render most exposed beaches quite bumpy. 

There is some hope that a high pressure system will quickly push in from the west during the day, relaxing the pressure gradient and easing the winds into the afternoon - but this will probably influence the Mid North Coast at best (and north locations further north). South facing beaches across Northern NSW could see some late 2-3ft+ sets but it’ll be smaller prior to this and overall the winds really aren’t looking crash hot.

And SE Qld won’t pick up much from this late southerly swell either, so expect very small surf on Sunday with freshening SW tending S’ly then S/SE winds throughout the day.

Next week (Monday 19th onwards)

Northern NSW should see an early peak in S’ly swell on Monday morning but wave heights will ease throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised if south swell magnets see early 3-4ft sets, and early indications are that we’ll see favourably light winds. 

Don’t expect much size in SE Qld though - we may see a minor short range SE swell from a weak ridge related to Sunday’s change but I can’t see much more than a slow foot or two max at exposed beaches.

Looking further ahead and the middle of next week (Tues/Wed, maybe Thurs) is looking like we’ll see another spell of northerly winds.. which will probably write off surf prospects at most locations. 

Looking further ahead and a more complex troughy pattern is expected to develop over south-eastern Australia mid-week, and this could lead to the evolution of a much more significant swell generating system later in the week - though I’m not entirely sure whether this will be within NSW’s swell window (model guidance is split either side of the Tasmanian divide right now). But, it’s certainly a dynamic pattern that’ll be eagerly watched over the coming model updates. More on this in Friday’s update.