South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th September)

Best Days: Friday: small/mod S'ly swell with light winds but only south of Yamba. Saturday: small peaky leftover south swell in Northern NSW with light winds. 

Recap: Northerly winds created difficult, if not terrible conditions across most regions on Saturday however an improvement occurred on Sunday with early offshore winds before a southerly regime established itself during the day. The weekend’s trade swell slowly eased over this period but we also saw a late pulse of new S’ly swell across the Mid North Coast on Sunday that’s provided fun 2-3ft waves to south facing beaches in Northern NSW this morning. This south swell is also now easing, with early light offshore winds now a moderate sea breeze.  

This week (Tuesday 13th - Friday 16th)

We can begin with a couple of broad, sweeping statements for the short term forecast period.

1. No major swells are expected for most regions until Friday.
2. Northerly winds will persist until the weekend across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and until Thursday across the Mid North Coast.
3. A fresh S’ly groundswell will push across Northern NSW on Friday.

With this in mind, SE Qld looks really poor for the rest of the working week, with small swells and persistent northerlies. 

Northern NSW doesn’t look much better either. Small long period S’ly groundswells are expected to ebb and pulse between Wednesday and Friday (very infrequent 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets) but these northerly winds will create problems. 

The source of this southerly energy is a strong, broad frontal progression across the Southern Ocean that isn’t particularly well aligned within our swell window, but the sheer size, strength and duration of the fetch means we’ll see small long prior energy pushing into exposed south swell magnets. 

Friday is the only worthwhile day of the week, and I think the Mid North Coast (up to about Yamba) will be the biggest beneficiary, thanks to a front crossing the Southern NSW coast on Thursday that’ll interrupt the northerly regime northwards to a point somewhere on the Mid North Coast. This should result in light variable winds south of Yamba (though I’ll find tune the specifics on Wednesday), but northerly winds will persist across the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts. 

We'll also see a fresh south swell in the water - the biggest of the forecast period - generated by a low that's expected to form off the South Coast overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning, though it’s been delayed quite a bit since Friday’s forecaster notes. And unfortunately, we’re still looking at a thin band of S/SW gales developing off the Southern NSW coast which will probably spend most of its swell producing time inside the Hunter shadow (which will cap wave heights in Northern NSW).

Surf size will build early across the Mid North Coast on Friday, arriving into the afternoon across the Far North Coast and we should see 3-4ft sets at the swell magnets, but much smaller surf elsewhere due to the acute swell direction. Don’t expect anything in SE Qld. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if this south swell bypasses many relaible south facing beaches.. due to the origin and alignment of the fetch.

Otherwise, Wednesday thru’ Friday may also see small levels of NE windswell (in the south) and minor trade swell (in SE Qld) but with no major size or strength and poor conditions thanks to the local winds. I’d give most regions a wide berth over the coming days.

This weekend (Saturday 17th - Sunday 18th)

At this stage, the leading up to the weekend looks a little quiet in all of our swell window, which means there are essentially no major new swells on the cards. 

We’ll probably see some small trade swell from a minor strengthening of the eastern lie south of new Caledonia mid-late week, but I can’t see much more than a foot or two at open beaches. Winds should be mainly light and variable under a troughy pattern.

Friday’s south swell should offer some early sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Saturday morning (2-3ft) but it'll be easing shortly after that. Sunday looks pretty small, and northerly winds may redevelop which will add further complications to the region's surf prospects.

Next week (Monday 19th onwards)

An approaching front across SE Qld on Sunday looks like it’ll deliver a punchy south swell for Northern NSW during the start of next week, but that’s the only system of interest on the long term charts right now.