South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th August)

Best Days: Sun: chance for some fun beachies with a small mix of S'ly and SE swell, but really only for exposed spots in Northern NSW (minor surf expected in SE Qld). Mon: small S'ly swell for south facing beaches in Northern NSW. Wed: long period S'ly swell for Northern NSW but N'ly winds will create problems in some areas.

Recap: So, that was a nice little run of surf, eh? Thursday delivered 2-3ft sets out of the east across SE Qld and Northern NSW, with wave easing from this source throughout the day. However, Northern NSW picked up a fresh pulse of S/SE swell from the Hunter low/trough, producing 3-4ft+ sets across the Mid North Coast and some parts of the North Coast late in the day. This swell persisted into this morning with early light offshore winds, but has eased throughout the day and winds have come up from the south. SE Qld has remained very smalls the E’ly swell is all but gone and the S/SE swell was poorly aligned for locations north of the border.

This weekend (Saturday 27th - Sunday 28th)

No major changes to the weekend forecast. However, we may see a little more size across south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Saturday, than was expected in Wednesday’s notes, due to Southern NSW coming in a little higher today than was forecast - but I’m not particularly confident on the source. 

In any case, winds are expected to be mainly moderate to fresh S’ly - excluding a brief window of SW thru’ W/SW winds early morning at selected beaches - so surface conditions will be bumpy at those beaches picking up an appreciable size (say, 3ft sets). Remaining beaches will be smaller but cleaner. And I can't see there being much size in SE Qld either.

The reason for the persistent southerly breeze is a lingering troughy pattern across the coastal margin.

In fact, it’s expected to form a weak new low pressure centre in the central/northern Tasman Sea during Saturday, that could give rise to a minor flush in short range SE swell during Sunday, but this is low confidence stuff as the Northern Tasman low looks like it’ll be poorly consolidated, and will quickly rotate clockwise out of our swell window.

We may see a Sunday afternoon push to 2-3ft across Far Northern NSW, but it'll be smaller in SE Qld away from the swell magnets, and also smaller across the Mid North Coast.  

As it is, Sunday is probably your best chance for a surf this weekend as local winds should ease to a lighter SW tending S’ly breeze, maybe even variable into the afternoon. I can’t see much more than a slow 1.5ft at most SE Qld beaches on Sunday, so the best surf prospects will be south of the border in the 2-3ft range (perhaps a little undersized early morning). Here’s hoping the short wavelengths will be suited to the current bank arrangements. 

Next week (Monday 29th onwards)

Broad trades are expected to develop across the Coral Sea next week but it looks like they’ll generally be too far north to be a major swell producer. The Sunshine Coast should see a small, low quality swell from this source fluctuating for much of the week (slow 2ft sets on the tide at exposed beaches) but it’ll be smaller south from Moreton Island. 

Otherwise, all eyes will be to the south this week.

Initially, a small long period S’ly swell is expected on Monday, but as per Wednesday’s notes, I’m a little suss on its origins - the polar low expected to generate it never really showed any strength so I am skeptical we’ll see anything major (certainly not the 16+ second peak periods suggested in the model guidance).  

In fact I have a feeling that most of Monday’s surf will probably be mid-period energy originating from the fetch trailing the front due to cross Tasmania overnight on Saturday. The fetch doesn’t look amazing, but we can’t rule out south facing beaches in Northern NSW picking up very infrequent 2ft sets, maybe some 2-3ft bombs from time to time if you're at a reliable swell magnet on the more favourable parts of the tide. And winds will be light so it'll be clean on top. It's just not worth rearranging your diary for, that's all.

SE Qld beaches will remain tiny apart from the small trade swell mentioned above. So, keep your expectations pegged appropriately low here for the start of the working week. 

Otherwise, we’re still on track for a solid long period south swell over the following days. 

Since Wednesday’s notes, the models have made a few adjustments - they’ve actually strengthened the core low, but kept it a little further south, and aligned it slightly more zonal (west-east). And this system will now reach peak intensity whilst existing to the east of our swell window. 

So, despite the stronger winds - and therefore larger peak swell periods we’ll see at the coast - the other factors have forced me to slightly downgrade the surf potential from this system. And the adjustments have also pushed back the peak of this swell to Wednesday.

The leading edge is expected into Southern NSW on Tuesday morning, and it should reach the lower Mid North Coast late Tuesday afternoon, but everywhere else will probably have to wait until Wednesday to see new energy. 

The largest size from this swell will be in the smaller 14-16 second period bands, located some 12-18 hours behind - which is expected to peak on Wednesday, probably around 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (peaking across the Mid North Coast during the morning, and the Far North Coast in the afternoon). 

I’m also a little worried about the scope and reach of this swell (in Northern NSW), and have a feeling it’ll be quite selective in where it focuses the biggest waves. But with large peak swell period we can’t rule out significantly larger waves at offshore bommies (i.e. well north of 6ft).

But I am doubtful that this swell will produce much, if any quality swell across SE Qld due to a poor direction and alignment.

The only other concern is that northerly winds are expected to freshen with the approach of a cold front from the west. We should see only light winds north of about Byron but south of here they’ll cause problems at exposed beaches and north-facing points. 

Anyway, Monday will be a much better time to properly evaluate this swell, as we should have good satellite data in by this time. 

Other than that there are no other major systems on the charts. I’ll be keeping an eye on the South Pacific region NE of New Zealand mid-next week as the models are suggesting a deepening trough (and possible E’ly swell source for next weekend) but it’s still early days. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!