South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th July)

Best Days: Fri: solid S'ly swell building into the afternoon across Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Sat: easing but still very good S'ly swell in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Sun: another strong S'ly swell building across Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld, though a little bigger than previous days). Mon/Tues: easing S/SE swell across Northern NSW and good winds. (only small in SE Qld).

Recap: Tuesday was solid across Northern NSW with 6ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, and smaller 3-5ft waves at remaining Northern NSW open beaches. North of the border, surf size trailed off considerably - some of the outer points saw rare 2-3ft sets (see Snapper surfcam image below) but for the most part the majority of Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches saw very inconsistent 1-2ft waves (see Burleigh surfcam image below). Surf size eased into the afternoon and then more rapidly overnight, leaving tiny conditions across SE Qld and fun leftover waves at south swell magnets in Northern NSW.

Nice lines at Snapper on Tuesday morning, even though there weren’t many like this

A more typical scene at Burleigh Heads Tuesday morning

This week (Thursday 28th - Friday 29th July)

A weak front will push into the Tasman Sea later today, and the trailing SW fetch will generate a small southerly swell for Thursday afternoon across Northern NSW. The latest model runs have slightly weakened the fetch and rotated its alignment clockwise (a little more outside of our swell window), so wave heights have been scaled back a bit - in size, and arrival time. 

Expect very small surf on Thursday morning, building from the south during the day (earlier across the Mid North Coast than the Far North Coast), reaching 2-3ft at south facing beaches by late in the day. Note: this swell may not show across the Far North Coast until quite late in the afternoon. 

Surface conditions are looking OK, but not great - early W/SW winds tending SW then S’ly during the day, at moderate more more strength. So those beaches picking up the south swell will become bumpy during the day. On the balance, I’d give it a miss.

Across SE Qld, surf size will remain tiny into Thursday, so there’s no decisions to be made there.

Friday still looks very interesting, with a very powerful front/low expected to track under Tasmania late Wednesday. Though, as feared in Monday’s forecast notes, the models do race this system quickly off to the east which diminishes its swell potential for Australia's East Coast.

That being said, the front will be working on the active sea state generated by the previous system (that’s a positive), and there is a minor slingshot to the north-east as it pushes beneath the shadow of Tasmania (another small positive) but I suspect this swell will light up only a handful of reliable south swell magnets with any appreciable size. 

The leading edge is due into the Mid North Coast around dawn on Friday, and then the Far North Coast late morning, with a rapid building trend expected into the afternoon. I reckon we’ll see some south swell magnets (south of Byron) reach 5-6ft+ by close of business Friday, and the good news is that surface conditions are looking pretty clean with light variable winds and sea breezes.

However, beaches not completely open to the south will be much smaller and inconsistent. In contrast to the Mon/Tues south swell, which originated from a much more favourably aligned frontal passage, most of the energy we’ll be seeing will be sideband energy glancing the coast. This usually results in much less consistency at the coast, and a much less penetration into protected spots too. So keep this in mind as sheltered southern corners could be quite a bit smaller than usual.

The ramifications of this poorly-aligned system will also affect SE Qld, which never does very well under south swells anyway. I’m not expecting much more than an inconsistent 1ft across most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches into the afternoon (smaller earlier) however some outer points may pick up stray 1.5-2ft sets and the region’s handful of south swell magnets should see late sets pushing 3ft+ (note: this swell may start to build very late in the day north of the border, so keep your expectations low - even if you are hitting up a supposedly reliable, exposed beach).

This weekend (Saturday 30th - Sunday 31st July)

A secondary front trailing behind the system responsible for our long period event on Friday is expected to maintain smaller south swell into Saturday. So we’ll see a combination of overlapping swells as Friday’s pulse eases and the new mid-range swell fills in between. 

South facing beaches south of Byron will once again have the most size with occasional 4-5ft sets, and smaller surf will prevail at remaining open beaches (2-3ft, and very inconsistent).

North of the border, I’m still not expect much size at most SE Qld beaches - the region's handful of south swell magnets should pick up occasional 2-3ft+ waves early Saturday (easing during the day) but most Gold/Sunshine beaches will struggle around the 1ft mark and even outer points won’t have much more than a foot or two at best. It's expected to become smaller during the day here too.

Another strong front entering the lower Tasman Sea on Friday is then expected to generate a strong renewal of southerly swell for Sunday, and this could nudge wave heights back up into the 5-6ft range at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron (into the afternoon, smaller early morning). The difference between this system and the one generating Friday’s south swell is a more meridional alignment, though still with a zonal progression. However the fetch width looks pretty good and its eastward track doesn’t look too fast (at this stage) so I’m quietly confident for some solid waves at exposed spots. 

SE Qld should pick up a little more size from this swell than the late Fri/early Sat pulse, but only just - maybe inconsistent 1-2ft sets at most open beaches, occasional 2ft to maybe 3ft sets at outer points and 3-4ft at south swell magnets. I’ll fine tune these figures in more detail on Friday.

As for local conditions - a weak pressure gradient across the coast will maintain generally light winds and sea breezes. So it’ll be a good weekend for sniffing around a new stretch of open south facing beaches. 

Next week (Monday 1st August)

The low generating Sunday’s pulse looks like it’ll hang in our S/SE swell window for a day or so, and as a result we should see some fun waves persisting into the start of next week. 

At the same time, another front pushing off the NSW coast on Sunday should generate a small secondary south swell for Northern NSW on Monday. 

Overall, wave heights will slowly trend down from Sunday afternoon’s peak - and this won’t be a good thing for much of SE Qld, where wave heights will be pretty small anyway - but across Northern NSW we should see a couple of days of very good, abating S/SE swell with mainly light offshore winds. 

Beyond this, and the second half of next week looks interesting with a stalled mid-latitude low west of Victoria expected to freshen offshore winds about our region before the system pushes into the Tasman and generates another round of southerly swell - probably for next weekend or early in the following week, meaning Wednesday, Thursday and Friday could be pretty small across most regions. But it’s still early days yet. More on this in Friday’s notes.